In 2023, Canada’s population of non-permanent residents (NPRs) grew by more than half a million people, part of the steepest single-year rise in at least five decades of available data.
In a report last week, Statistics Canada (StatCan) counted a total of 2.5 million NPRs as of this October, up from 1.7 million the same time last year. The 2023 growth shatters previous year-to-year records in the available data, tripling the increase of nearly 170,000 between the summers of 2018 and 2019.
NPR totals have grown by just over 80 per cent since the fourth quarter of 2021, the data shows.
In an emailed statement, StatCan told CTVNews.ca that 2023’s NPR growth could be attributed in part to the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions and increases to work and study permits processed by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
This year also saw StatCan update its methodology for estimating NPR population data; a change that the agency clarified had, in 2021/22, a roughly five per cent impact on the estimated growth in NPR totals (196,000, compared with an estimate of 205,000 under the older protocol).
“This is our usual practice, especially after a census, as updating our methods enables us to remain relevant,” StatCan said in the statement issued Wednesday. “The impact of these adjustments on the total size of the Canadian population is minimal.”
Jeffrey Reitz, a professor emeritus of sociology at the University of Toronto, says the embrace of increasing migration by the federal government has, for years, been a reflection of economic interests.
“When the Liberal government came in, in 2016, they appointed a committee to evaluate various ways of improvement for the growth of the Canadian economy. Members of this committee were mostly businessmen, but also academic economists, and they all recommended a dramatic increase in immigration numbers,” he said in an interview with CTVNews.ca.
“The government’s done, pretty much, what business leaders have requested.”
A June report from the National Bank of Canada describes NPRs as “increasingly pivotal” to the country’s “ongoing population boom;” one that data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows has put Canada at the top of the G7 for population growth, averaging roughly 1.2 per cent annually since 2014.
This past quarter, 96 per cent of Canada’s domestic population growth came from permanent or non-permanent immigration, according to StatCan.
“Few (if any) major advanced countries can match what’s going on in Canada,” the National Bank report read. “Permanent immigrants have long been an important flow. But at the margin, (NPRs) are now front and centre.”
MAJOR GROWTH IN WORK AND STUDY PERMITS
A StatCan review of 2021 census data published this summer found that compared to the rest of the Canadian population, including permanent immigrants, the average NPR was significantly younger, more educated and more likely to participate in the labour force.
Among NPRs, top countries of origin include India (28.5 per cent), China (10.5 per cent), France (5.1 per cent) and the Philippines (3.6 per cent).
In recent years, some of the fastest growth among NPR populations has been in work-permit holders, with 1.6 million counted nationwide this quarter, up from roughly 830,000 in late 2021.
As of the most recent data, the majority of Canada’s 2.5 million NPRs hold work permits, with close to one million permitted to study in the country. These totals include asylum claimants, a majority of whom also hold either a work or study permit, or both.
The growth comes amid what IRCC describes as record-breaking numbers for new permits, including more than 1.5 million for workers and one million for students processed, finalized or extended this year.
“The reality is that Canada needs more people. … This summer, there were close to one million job vacancies in our economy. It’s essential to advance policies that address labour shortages,” said then-immigration minister Sean Fraser in a speech in late 2022.
“We’re going to continue to create opportunities for more people to come to Canada to contribute to our economic well-being and to have our system become more compassionate at the same time.”
But as Reitz points out, sudden increases to Canada’s NPR population are likely to cause problems of their own — both for Canada’s existing population and for newcomers.
“In the past, when the number of international students was 100,000 or so, a reasonable percentage of those folks could qualify for permanent-resident status. But if you then bring in 800,000 or 900,000, … you’re not going to be able to transition an equivalent proportion,” he explained.
“The students who are coming, who are thinking that they’re going to qualify for permanent status, are likely to be very, very disappointed.”
Prospects aren’t much better in the working world, Reitz says. Historically, immigration initiatives like the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) have sought to fill specific gaps in Canada’s labour market, but with industry-level needs changing faster than the immigration process brings people into the country to meet them, complications have arisen.
“Around 2013-2014 … what was being reported was instances in which employers were bringing in immigrants to actually replace Canadians, at lower wages,” Reitz recalled. “This was contrary to the express purpose of the (TFWP), to bring in workers where Canadians were not available.”
What can result is a growing proportion of underpaid Canadian and foreign workers alike, with the latter fearing deportation if they don’t appease the businesses vital to their presence in the country. It’s a vulnerability to abuse that underlies a variety of the challenges facing those in the system.
A study published this year by researchers at StatCan, Brock and Western universities found that between 2010 and 2017, the introduction of low-wage TFWP workers correlated with lowered earnings for the lower-skilled, least-paid Canadian employees of a firm, but higher earnings for the higher-skilled, highest-paid Canadians.
“A major challenge of administering a (TFWP) is that foreign workers facing poor employment options in their home country have incentives to accept jobs to work in Canada for lower wage rates than a typical Canadian would accept,” the study reads.
“This can lead to worse outcomes for Canadians in the labour market if firms internalize this knowledge when making hiring decisions and select TFWs over Canadians.”
SIGNALS OF SLOWING GROWTH ON THE HORIZON
Amid public criticism abroad, federal officials have signalled possible reductions to NPR growth in the near future.
In a report published this September, United Nations Special Rapporteur Tomoya Obokata described low-wage and agricultural streams of the TFWP as constituting a “breeding ground for contemporary forms of slavery,” adding that he was “perturbed by reports that the share of workers entering Canada through this programme is sharply on the rise.”
Two months later, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced a new three-year plan designed to chart “a responsible course for sustainable and stable population growth.”
The plan included a freeze on permanent-resident targets at 500,000 annually in 2025 and 2026, and actions in the new year to “recalibrate the number of temporary resident admissions” to ensure the program runs sustainably.
In addition, Miller announced earlier this month plans to double the minimum financial requirement for international students in 2024, to roughly $20,000 in savings from $10,000, on top of the ability to cover their first-year’s tuition and travel expenses.
“We are revising the cost-of-living threshold so that international students understand the true cost of living here,” Miller said in a December release.
“These long-overdue changes will protect international students from financially vulnerable situations and exploitation.”
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
