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Canada's TransMountain Pipeline Faces Another Major Setback – OilPrice.com

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Canada’s TransMountain Pipeline Faces Another Major Setback | OilPrice.com

Nick Cunningham

Nick Cunningham is an independent journalist, covering oil and gas, energy and environmental policy, and international politics. He is based in Portland, Oregon. 

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Trans Mountain pipeline

A major insurance company dropped coverage for the Trans Mountain expansion project, an oil pipeline seen as vital to the growth of Canada’s oil sands. Under pressure from environmental groups and growing global concerns about climate change, insurance companies are beginning to drop coverage for large-scale energy infrastructure.  Swiss insurance company Zurich announced on Wednesday its decision not to renew coverage for the Trans Mountain expansion, a pipeline that was effectively nationalized by the Canadian government for C$4.5 billion. Kinder Morgan, the previous owner, had planned on scrapping the project altogether due to legal uncertainty, rising costs and protests from First Nations and environmental groups. The government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau bought the project in 2018, allowing Kinder Morgan to exit, and he vowed to build the pipeline. 

The Trans Mountain pipeline just prevailed in a major Canadian Supreme Court case a few weeks ago. Ruling in favor of the project, the court dismissed legal battles brought by First Nations in British Columbia. If built, the expansion would triple the exiting line’s capacity to 890,000 barrels per day.

Despite the court victory, the pipeline now faces new obstacles with insurance companies backing out. Zurich was the project’s largest insurer, providing $508 million in insurance coverage, but the policy expires at the end of August. The Swiss company said it would not renew. That may put pressure on other insurance companies backing the project, including Lloyd’s of London, Liberty Mutual, Munich Re and Chubb. 

In the short run, shuttered production due to the pandemic has some Canadian pipelines less than full. The downturn has hit the Canadian oil patch hard. It wasn’t too long ago that the government of Alberta, flush with production and not enough pipeline outlets, was tinkering with production cuts. This year, the market has forced 1 million barrels per day offline, with the production trickling back online only now. 

But beyond the immediate crisis, Canada sees the Trans Mountain expansion as critical to the industry’s growth. That is particularly true with Keystone XL back on death’s door. The Trans Mountain expansion is “critical infrastructure needed to move Canadian energy to world markets and help restore investor confidence in Canada’s economy and political system,” the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers says, and its completion is “in the national interest.” 

Related: Is Nuclear Energy Making A Pandemic Comeback?

However, the investment case – beyond the immediate construction – looks riskier than ever. “The Canadian government’s stakes in Keystone XL and Trans Mountain could well prove to be a drain on the public purse,” Carbon Tracker said in a report published on Thursday. 

With structurally lower oil demand in the medium and long-term, high-cost production will be the most likely assets to be left in the ground. As a result, “no new oil sands are needed,” Carbon Tracker said. New oil sands are immensely expensive, even though they operate steadily for decades, unlike unconventional shale production, for example.  

The conclusion that oil sands won’t be needed was based strictly on a cost of production basis, Carbon Tracker added. Because of that, new pipelines – including Trans Mountain – are “surplus” to long-term oil demand levels as the world seeks to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement.

In the long run, Canadian oil supply could peak at 4.9 million barrels per day including diluents, an estimate that Carbon Tracker admits is generous. Meanwhile, combined pipeline, rail and local refining capacity will peak at 5.8 mb/d. Assuming a 90 percent utilization rate for those facilities, Canada would have 5.3 mb/d of takeaway capacity by 2027. Keystone XL and Trans Mountain are not factored into that, and given that takeaway capacity exceeds production, they would be surplus and unneeded.  

It is unclear if insurance companies such as Zurich are eyeing these long-term trends, or if they are more concerned with the public relations black eye that they would receive by continuing to back the pipeline expansion. 

A spokesperson for the project told Reuters that the project will continue. “There remains adequate capacity in the market to meet Trans Mountain’s insurance needs and our renewal,” the spokeswoman told Reuters in an emailed statement.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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