Canada’s banks may not be as exposed to commercial real estate as their counterparts in the United States, but that doesn’t mean their earnings aren’t at risk, particularly from the office segment pummelled by remote work, according to a prominent Bay Street analyst.
Real eState
Canadian bank earnings at risk from office real estate exposure, says Bay Street analyst
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Commercial real estate loans represent the second-largest lending exposure of Canada’s six largest banks, trailing only residential real estate in proportional size, at around 10 per cent of lending portfolios, according to National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine.
Rising interest rates have challenged commercial real estate owners and investors while, at the same time, remote work is leaving many office buildings under-utilized and hurting rent prospects.
Office exposures are particularly worrisome
Gabriel Dechaine, analyst, National Bank
“Of course, in either scenario, earnings downside would be even greater considering that losses would also be incurred in other lending portfolios,” he said.
Despite the potential earnings impact, the analyst said none of the large banks would be likely to fall below the minimum capital cushions required by regulators.
Commercial real estate loans have attracted a lot of attention in the United States since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March because, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. research, banks there with less than US$180 billion in assets hold around 70 per cent of commercial real estate loans in the banking system on their balance sheets. U.S. regional banks with between US$10 billion and US$20 billion in assets have 25 per cent of their loans tied to commercial real estate.
“Despite the stellar (Canadian) credit metrics today, investors are undoubtedly questioning coverage ratios, in the event of an actual CRE downturn (particularly in the office category),” Dechaine said.
“With the CRE overhang and the ongoing turbulence in the U.S. regional banking sector that could trigger a recession, we believe most investors will maintain a cautious stance towards the Big 6 banks.”

Dechaine calculated that a trio of the financial institutions — Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank and National Bank — have roughly 10 per cent exposure to office real estate, while Royal Bank of Canada is at the top of the group with nearly 20 per cent.
Other market watchers have expressed less concern about the ability of Canadian banks to weather exposure to commercial real estate. In an April 5 column, CPA Canada chief economist David-Alexandre Brassard said the big banks were “well positioned” to deal with historically high vacancy rates and higher interest rates, noting that commercial real estate represents two per cent of their overall assets compared to 13 per cent for U.S. banks.





Real eState
Wall Street’s Blackstone Made Billions in Real Estate Bet on Urban Warehouses – Bloomberg
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Wall Street’s Blackstone Made Billions in Real Estate Bet on Urban Warehouses Bloomberg
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Real eState
Insider deal for Liberty Village condo reduces Realtor commission – The Globe and Mail
Pope Real Estate Ltd.
80 Western Battery Rd., No. 811, Toronto
Asking price: $919,990 (March, 2023)
Selling price: $900,000 (March, 2023)
Taxes: $3,141 (2022)
Days on the market: N/A
Listing and co-op agent: Robin Pope, Pope Real Estate Ltd.
The action
Pope Real Estate Ltd.
The 14-year-old suite has a wide and shallow layout with full-height windows in every room.Pope Real Estate Ltd.
The owner of this two-bedroom corner suite wanted to sell it to finance the purchase of their next place, so they spruced it up for a spring launch when little else was available for sale in the high-rise building. At the last minute, the seller’s future father-in-law – who was shopping for an investment property – determined it was a good fit for his own portfolio at $900,000.
“I was handling both sides of the transaction, so the commission was less,” said agent Robin Pope. “That was an advantage for the seller, and the buyer was willing to close whenever the [seller] found a property.”
“We were never going to find another buyer who would accommodate that, so it was a win-win for everyone.”
What they got
Pope Real Estate Ltd.
The kitchen boasts granite countertops, an island and stainless steel appliances.Pope Real Estate Ltd.
This 14-year-old suite has a wide and shallow layout with full-height windows in every room and a balcony off the open living and dining area.
Towards the back of the unit, there are two full bathrooms and a laundry closet with stacked machines, plus a kitchen with granite countertops, an island and stainless steel appliances.
Parking and a storage locker complete the package.
Monthly fees of $801 pay for 24-hour concierge and access to a fitness centre with a pool, and a clubhouse with a party room and landscaped patio.
The agent’s take
The balcony is accessible through the open living and dining area.Pope Real Estate Ltd.
“There are a few newer buildings in the area, but units are much smaller for the same money,” said Mr. Pope.
“It’s a very lovely, 900-square-foot, two-bedroom unit in the southeast corner with great views of Liberty Village. And you could see some of the lake and a big part of the downtown skyline, including the CN Tower.”
Its outdoor living space is also generous. “This had a very large balcony, six feet deep and south-facing,” Mr. Pope said.
Real eState
Real Estate Strategy: Invest in Airbnb Rentals and Affordable Housing
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After graduating from Bentley University in 2011, he worked as a consultant at PricewaterhouseCoopers for nearly four years. He left PwC to help a family member turn their restaurant business around and re-entered corporate America in 2017 when he got a job at a major insurance company.
“I knew that I wanted to leave my W-2 job at some point,” the 34-year-old told Insider. “In order to do that, you need to generate cash flow on a monthly basis.”
He decided to try real estate investing on the side. Specifically, he wanted to set up short-term vacation rentals.
Based on his research, He was convinced that setting up Airbnb properties, although considered higher-risk than long-term rentals, could produce the most cash flow.
He was right: The San Diego-based investor purchased two investment properties in Scottsdale, Arizona in 2021 and 2022 and turned them both into bachelorette-themed Airbnbs. By mid-2022, the cash flow from his two short-term rental units was enough to cover his family’s expenses, allowing him to quit his day job.
His ‘recession proof’ strategy: continuing to invest in short-term rentals and diversifying with affordable housing units
He prefers short-term rentals because, “you can get super-high cash flow,” he explained. But, at the same time, “I never like putting all my eggs in one basket. Who’s to say another pandemic can’t hit again and everything goes empty?”
Early in the pandemic, when travel was halted and some state and local governments even banned short-term rentals to stop the spread of Covid-19, Airbnb hosts saw their calendars wiped clean.
“For peace of mind, I want to know that there’s always other cash flow coming in from another asset class,” said He.
In May 2023, he expanded his portfolio and purchased his first affordable housing unit. It’s a single-family home in Fairfield, Alabama that he’ll rent on a long-term basis to a Section 8 tenant.
His plan is to continue growing his Airbnb business, which he still believes is the most effective way to produce cash flow, and use the profits to fund affordable housing units specifically for social workers and EMTs.
He is passionate about providing affordable housing, having seen first-hand how it can change a family’s outcome.
“My parents came over from China with about $1,000,” said He, who was raised in Boston. “My mom tells me the story about how one night when they were living in Chinatown in Boston, they were burglarized and lost about $5,000, over a year’s worth of wages in one night. That could be pretty devastating for most families but she told me she was on a waitlist for affordable housing and that gave her the hope and drive to keep going. Long story short, she finally got her affordable housing unit and she was in tears.”
He expects his affordable housing unit, which he’s currently renovating, to profit $200 a month minimum.
That’s less than what his Airbnb properties bring in, but it allows him to diversify his portfolio. Plus, he knows this rental income will be consistent, whereas short-term rental income can fluctuate.
As a Section 8 landlord, you can collect rent reliably, he explained: “Even if the Section 8 tenant loses their job, the government will come in and pay the rest of the rent. That is what I’m calling a recession-proof investment because the government will always pay their rent on time for your voucher holders.”
Section 8 landlords can also request approval for a rent increase once per year.
“I think it’s the perfect diversification strategy,” said He, whose long-term goal is to acquire 1,000 affordable housing units. “You can supercharge your capital with short term rentals, but you get to keep a diversified portfolio with affordable housing.”
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