TORONTO (Reuters) – Analysts have raised their Canadian dollar forecasts for the coming year, expecting the currency to benefit from faster growth in the domestic economy and a potential reduction by the Bank of Canada of its bond purchases, a Reuters poll showed.
The loonie advanced 1.4% against the U.S. dollar in the first quarter, its fourth straight quarterly gain and the best performance among the G10 currencies.
The median forecast of more than 30 strategists was for the Canadian dollar to rise a further 0.6% over the next three months to 1.25 per U.S. dollar, or 80 U.S. cents.
It was then expected to climb to 1.23 in one year, compared with a 1.25 forecast in March’s poll.
“We expect the Canadian dollar to be a general outperformer among the G10 over the coming year,” said Erik Nelson, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.
“Canada’s economy looks poised to enjoy one of the strongest growth rebounds this year thanks to a combination of domestic fiscal support, higher commodity prices and spillover from U.S. demand.”
Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil, which has soared about 80% since last November.
Data on Wednesday showed Canada’s economy expanded for a ninth consecutive month in January and most likely grew in February, adding to evidence a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was stronger than expected.
That could encourage Canada’s central bank to dial back the pace of stimulus.
“The Bank of Canada is likely to be among the first to taper asset purchases, furthering yield support for the loonie,” Nelson said.
Strategists expect the bank to cut this month the amount of bonds it buys each week to C$3 billion from C$4 billion. Canada’s 5-year yield trades about 7 basis points above the equivalent U.S. rate.
The country is facing a potential third wave of COVID-19 infections. Still, vaccine supplies are picking up, which could help narrow the economic advantage of the United States, one of the countries with the fastest rollouts.
“The U.S. economy will likely do well in the short term, but several other countries will be following in its wake soon as vaccination will progress,” said Hendrix Vachon, a senior economist at Desjardins.
(For other stories from the April Reuters foreign exchange poll:)
(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Polling by Manjul Paul and Mumal Rathore; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
