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Economy

Canadian dollar notches monthly gain as safe-haven flows dominate

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The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, clawing back its earlier decline, as safe-haven flows dominated global currency markets after the West imposed tougher sanctions against Russia.

The Russian ruble hit record lows while the safe-haven U.S. dollar rose against a basket of major currencies and oil prices jumped after the West blocked Russian banks from the SWIFT global payments system. Still, stocks on Wall Street closed well above their session lows. [nL1N2V314D

“Some of the anxiety from last night has subsided,” said Erik Bregar, director, FX & Precious Metals Risk Management at Silver Gold Bull. “The Canadian dollar at the end of the day is a risk currency.”

The loonie was up 0.2% at 1.2675 to the greenback, or 78.90 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.2661 to 1.2809. For the month, the currency also ended 0.2% higher.

Speculators have cut their bullish bets on the Canadian dollar, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

U.S. crude prices settled 4.5% higher at $95.72 a barrel. Oil is one of Canada’s major exports.

“There’ll be a time when CAD will move tick for tick with oil again but things have to calm down much more geopolitically,” Bregar said.

Domestic data showed that Canada posted a current account deficit of C$797 million in the fourth quarter after a revised C$808 million surplus in the third quarter, on a deterioration of the investment income balance.

Investors awaited a Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to hike its benchmark rate for the first time since October 2018, lifting it to 0.5% from 0.25%.

Canadian government bond yields were lower across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year fell 5.9 basis points to 1.837%.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Alistair Bell)

Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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