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Canadian Dollar Outlook Deteriorates after January BOC Rate Decision – DailyFX

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USD/CAD Rate Forecast Overview:

  • A stark change in tone from the BOC from just earlier this month caught traders by surprise, sending the Canadian Dollar tumbling across the board.
  • USD/CAD rates have entered a short-term reversal scenario, although the longer-term outlook remains clouded thanks to a key technical development at the end of 2019.
  • According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, USD/CAD rates have a bearish trading bias.

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Canadian Dollar Falls After BOC Meeting

The Canadian Dollar endured a meaningful setback following surprise commentary at the January Bank of Canada rate decision. After striking an optimistic tone at the start of the year, noting that the Canadian economy had weathered the US-China trade war, BOC Governor Stephen Poloz effectively took a sentiment U-turn in noting that policymakers were uncertain if the recent slowdown in Canadian economic data was temporary or due to global factors.

Rate Cut Expectations Rise After Poloz Comments

Traders were caught off guard, largely expecting an anodyne BOC rate decision in light of the fact that interest rate markets were subdued: ahead of the January BOC meeting, traders were pricing in one 25-bps interest rate cut in 2020, due for October. Dour commentary coupled with a revision to the 2020 and 2021 GDP forecasts – the BOC sees the Canadian economy growing by 1.6% from 1.7% in 2020, and at 2% from 1.8% in 2021 – has provoked a material repricing of BOC rate cut odds.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Expectations (January 22, 2020) (Table 1)

Canadian Dollar Outlook Deteriorates after January BOC Rate Decision

According to Canada overnight index swaps, rates markets are now pricing in an implied probability of 64% for the a 25-bps rate cut to come at the July BOC meeting – two months earlier than previously anticipated. Similarly, there is now a 35% chance that a second 25-bps rate cut comes at the October BOC meeting. At the start of 2020, rates markets did not have any interest rate cuts priced-in for 2020; this has been a dramatic escalation in a few weeks time.

USD/CAD Rate Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (January 2019 to January 2020) (Chart 1)

Canadian Dollar Outlook Deteriorates after January BOC Rate Decision

USD/CAD rates are working on a bullish outside engulfing bar today, suggesting further gains in the days ahead. Having cleared out the former monthly high set on January 9 at 1.3103, USD/CAD rates have a near-term bullish bias as a reversal within the congestion dating back to July transpires. A full-scale reversal within the sideways range would call for USD/CAD rates to climb back towards the mid-1.3300s over the coming sessions.

However, there are longer-term technical considerations in play that may curtail a significant reversal. The weekly chart offers important insight for traders, short-term and long-term alike.

USD/CAD Rate Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart (September 2012 to January 2020) (Chart 2)

Canadian Dollar Outlook Deteriorates after January BOC Rate Decision

USD/CAD rates recently rebounded from the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 high to 2018 low range at 1.3065. While the return to the consolidation in place since July suggests a reversal towards 1.3350 is possible, traders may want to curb their enthusiasm for the time being: USD/CAD remains below the rising trendline dating back to the 2012 low.

This trendline comes into play closer towards 1.3225 through the rest of this week; failure here would signify that USD/CAD’s longer-term topping efforts may still be valid. To this end, however, if USD/CAD rates are able to clear 1.3225, we would begin to consider price action in recent months a “false breakout” scenario, ultimately calling for not only a return to 1.3350, but the beginning stages of a longer-term march higher towards the 2016 high at 1.4690.

IG Client Sentiment Index: USD/CAD Rate Forecast (January 22, 2020) (Chart 3)

Canadian Dollar Outlook Deteriorates after January BOC Rate Decision

USD/CAD: Retail trader data shows 58.81% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.43 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.39% higher than yesterday and 1.82% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.62% lower than yesterday and 3.02% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall.

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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