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Canadian economy mired in its deepest recession on record, with U-shaped recovery likely – Financial Post

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BENGALURU — The Canadian economy is likely in its deepest recession on record and will only recover modestly over the coming year as it takes a direct hit from the coronavirus outbreak and a collapse in oil prices, a Reuters poll of economists showed.

After the economy contracted sharply last month and lost a record 1.01 million jobs, economists have slashed back their economic forecasts due to lockdown measures and reeling oil prices which hit a record low last week as global economic activity came to a halt.

In the April 23-28 Reuters poll of 25 economists Canada’s economy was predicted to have contracted at an annualized rate of 9.8 per cent last quarter and to shrink 37.5 per cent this quarter.

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In a January poll, they predicted 1.6 per cent and 1.7 per cent growth, respectively, showing just how abruptly the economy has turned. If the latest forecasts are realized, it would mark the deepest recession in at least six decades.

“Canada is in the midst of an historic economic contraction. The economy has largely shut down, paralyzed by measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic, free-falling financial markets, plunging oil prices and plummeting confidence,” said Tony Stillo, director of Canada economics at Oxford Economics.

The somber outlook was despite the Bank of Canada’s buying up to $10 billion of corporate bonds and $50 billion of provincial bonds as part of its newly launched quantitative easing program — alongside hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending to support business and households.

Although the economy was predicted to bounce back and expand by a median 19 per cent and 11 per cent in the third and fourth quarter respectively, all but one of nine economists responding to an additional question said the risk to their second-half forecasts was skewed to the downside.

Canada is in the midst of an historic economic contraction

Tony Stillo

Despite that rebound the economy was expected to contract 5.7 per cent this year, the first annual contraction since the 2008-09 recession and easily the deepest since records began being kept in 1961.

The median worst-case scenario, based on a lower sample, predicted a contraction of 50 per cent this quarter and 10 per cent this year.

“The length of the recession is key. The longer the recession, the greater the capital destruction will be, unfortunately, making the recovery softer. We hopefully won’t get to the point where fiscal and monetary policy reach limits,” said Sebastien Lavoie, chief economist at Laurentian Bank.

Asked about the shape of Canada’s economic recovery, over 55 per cent of nine respondents said it would be a U-shaped recovery and one-third said it would be tick-shaped. Only one chose V-shaped.

That was in line with BoC Governor Stephen Poloz’s recent statement that the economy would take “a couple of years” to make up lost ground once the pandemic is over.

Will people want to return to busy restaurants or shops? This uncertainty means we doubt the recovery will be swift

“Overall, due to the lasting damage of the disruption, we think GDP will remain below its late-2019 level until early 2022. We do not see GDP returning to its pre-2020 trend path within the next few years,” said Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics.

The BoC has already cut its key interest rate by a cumulative 150 basis points to 0.25 per cent in the past month and launched an asset purchase program, quantitative easing.

Canada’s central bank is expected to come up with additional easing measures, according to 70 per cent of economists who answered a separate question, likely in the form of broadening its bond buying. It is forecast to leave rates near zero until 2022.

Inflation was expected to remain around 0.5 per cent in the coming quarters, well below the central bank’s target of about 2 per cent.

“We assume it will be a long, slow recovery with many businesses closing and structural changes likely with businesses changing the way they operate: reduced travel having knock-on effects for airlines, hotels, restaurants, etc.,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

“Will people want to return to busy restaurants or shops? This uncertainty means we doubt the recovery will be swift.”

© Thomson Reuters 2020

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China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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