Clean electricity will become the cornerstone of Canada’s energy future and the use of fossil fuels will drop significantly if the country is to reach its goal of net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, according to a new federal analysis.
The report, released Tuesday, is the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER’s) first long-term outlook modelling net-zero by 2050. It outlines three scenarios: global net-zero, Canada net-zero and the continuation of current measures. But the agency emphasized that the scenarios aren’t predictions about the future or policy recommendations but sketches of Canada’s possible energy future.
“Uncertainty is inherent in all energy modelling exercises,” Gitane De Silva, the CER’s chief executive, wrote in her introduction to the report. “I am sure not everyone will agree with the assumptions we made, nor our findings.”
Nevertheless, Ms. De Silva said the report presents scenarios “that can help Canadians and policy makers see what a net-zero world could look like, visualize the goal, and make informed decisions.”
Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is grappling with how to best balance its economic reliance on fossil-fuel production with the global goal of reducing greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Under the global net-zero scenario, Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 and the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5 C. The Canada net-zero scenario envisages a future where we hit net-zero by 2050 but other countries move more slowly.
The current measures scenario relies on a model whereby Canada sticks to the emissions-reduction measures in place today – the eventual $170-a-tonne carbon tax by 2030-31, for example, but not an oil-and-gas emissions cap being developed by Ottawa.
Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said in an interview that the report helps paint a clearer picture for Canadians about what a net-zero future looks like.
“This is a tool that that will enable us to actually have a better conversation with Canadians about some of the changes that we expect to see,” he said of the report, which also emphasizes that Canada’s energy future will in large part be guided by external trade pressures as other countries eye net-zero goals.
“These are forces that are well beyond the control of the Government of Canada. This is about global demand and global price,” Mr. Wilkinson said.
Electricity demand becomes the most important energy source for Canadians in both of the report’s net-zero scenarios. Under the global scenario, for example, it grows 120 per cent from 2021 to 2050 – almost triple the annual rate from 1995 to 2019. The Canada scenario moves the dial even further, with demand growing 135 per cent from 2021 to 2050.
In both cases, wind power flowing into the grid grows rapidly, as does hydroelectricity, which is currently the largest source of generation in Canada. Natural gas-fired generation with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) will become a key power source, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Nuclear also gets a look-in, with electricity generation from small module reactors set to comprise 12 per cent of total electricity generation by 2050.
Electricity demand grows more slowly in the current measures scenario but still increases by 62 per cent by 2050.
The surge in consumption comes from replacing current technologies with alternatives such as electric vehicles and heat pumps. The natural flow-on effect is a marked decrease in fossil-fuel consumption.
Change in electricity generation
By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario
Natural gas
with CCUS*
Fossil fuels
Terawatt hours
*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada
energy regulator
Change in electricity generation
By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario
Natural gas
with CCUS*
Fossil fuels
Terawatt hours
*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada
energy regulator
Change in electricity generation
By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario
Natural gas
with CCUS*
Fossil fuels
Terawatt hours
*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada energy regulator
The global net-zero scenario paints a bleak picture for Canada’s oil and gas sector. By 2050, crude oil production falls to 1.2 million barrels a day (Mmb/d) and natural-gas production to 5.9 billion cubic feet a day – 76 per cent lower and 68 per cent lower than 2022 levels.
Oil sands production will be particularly hard-hit, falling to 0.58 MMb/d in 2050 under the global net-zero scenario, or 83 per cent lower than in 2022. Under the Canada net-zero model, by 2050 it’s 30 per cent lower.
If, however, the country continues along its current path, the CER report forecasts that oil production will be 20 per cent higher in 2050 than in 2022, and natural-gas production 24 per cent higher.
Jean-Denis Charlebois, the regulator’s chief economist, said conventional production could prove more resilient than the oil sands under both net-zero scenarios, because of price uncertainty and the cost of decarbonization measures such as CCUS.
The report hasn’t changed the plans of Pathways Alliance, a collaboration of Canada’s largest oil sands producers that aims to reach net-zero production by 2050. Mark Cameron, the alliance’s vice-president, said the net-zero scenarios underscore the importance of CCUS in meeting its goal.
“Last year was a record year for global oil demand,” he noted in an interview. “So I don’t think I would assume that we’re going to … all of a sudden be on that global net-zero track. So I think we really need to focus on what we can do to reduce emissions at home and Canada.”
Mr. Wilkinson said the report underscores the urgency with which the oil and gas sector must decarbonize production “both to enable Canada to meet its own domestic climate obligations, but also to enhance the competitiveness of our products in international markets.”
Chris Severson-Baker, executive director of the Pembina Institute, a think tank, said the energy transformation outlined in the report “demands proactive preparations on the part of responsible governments, federally and provincially, in order for Canada to remain competitive.”
TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.
The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.
The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.
Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.
Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.
Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.
Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.
Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.
Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.
Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.
Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).
Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.
June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.
Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”
Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.
July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.
Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)
TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.
Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.
The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.
As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.
TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.
TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
