Clean electricity will become the cornerstone of Canada’s energy future and the use of fossil fuels will drop significantly if the country is to reach its goal of net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, according to a new federal analysis.
The report, released Tuesday, is the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER’s) first long-term outlook modelling net-zero by 2050. It outlines three scenarios: global net-zero, Canada net-zero and the continuation of current measures. But the agency emphasized that the scenarios aren’t predictions about the future or policy recommendations but sketches of Canada’s possible energy future.
“Uncertainty is inherent in all energy modelling exercises,” Gitane De Silva, the CER’s chief executive, wrote in her introduction to the report. “I am sure not everyone will agree with the assumptions we made, nor our findings.”
Nevertheless, Ms. De Silva said the report presents scenarios “that can help Canadians and policy makers see what a net-zero world could look like, visualize the goal, and make informed decisions.”
Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is grappling with how to best balance its economic reliance on fossil-fuel production with the global goal of reducing greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Under the global net-zero scenario, Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 and the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5 C. The Canada net-zero scenario envisages a future where we hit net-zero by 2050 but other countries move more slowly.
The current measures scenario relies on a model whereby Canada sticks to the emissions-reduction measures in place today – the eventual $170-a-tonne carbon tax by 2030-31, for example, but not an oil-and-gas emissions cap being developed by Ottawa.
Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said in an interview that the report helps paint a clearer picture for Canadians about what a net-zero future looks like.
“This is a tool that that will enable us to actually have a better conversation with Canadians about some of the changes that we expect to see,” he said of the report, which also emphasizes that Canada’s energy future will in large part be guided by external trade pressures as other countries eye net-zero goals.
“These are forces that are well beyond the control of the Government of Canada. This is about global demand and global price,” Mr. Wilkinson said.
Electricity demand becomes the most important energy source for Canadians in both of the report’s net-zero scenarios. Under the global scenario, for example, it grows 120 per cent from 2021 to 2050 – almost triple the annual rate from 1995 to 2019. The Canada scenario moves the dial even further, with demand growing 135 per cent from 2021 to 2050.
In both cases, wind power flowing into the grid grows rapidly, as does hydroelectricity, which is currently the largest source of generation in Canada. Natural gas-fired generation with carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) will become a key power source, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Nuclear also gets a look-in, with electricity generation from small module reactors set to comprise 12 per cent of total electricity generation by 2050.
Electricity demand grows more slowly in the current measures scenario but still increases by 62 per cent by 2050.
The surge in consumption comes from replacing current technologies with alternatives such as electric vehicles and heat pumps. The natural flow-on effect is a marked decrease in fossil-fuel consumption.
Change in electricity generation
By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario
Natural gas
with CCUS*
Fossil fuels
Terawatt hours
*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada
energy regulator
Change in electricity generation
By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario
Natural gas
with CCUS*
Fossil fuels
Terawatt hours
*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada
energy regulator
Change in electricity generation
By fuel, 2021 to 2050, Global net-zero scenario
Natural gas
with CCUS*
Fossil fuels
Terawatt hours
*Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)
john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: canada energy regulator
The global net-zero scenario paints a bleak picture for Canada’s oil and gas sector. By 2050, crude oil production falls to 1.2 million barrels a day (Mmb/d) and natural-gas production to 5.9 billion cubic feet a day – 76 per cent lower and 68 per cent lower than 2022 levels.
Oil sands production will be particularly hard-hit, falling to 0.58 MMb/d in 2050 under the global net-zero scenario, or 83 per cent lower than in 2022. Under the Canada net-zero model, by 2050 it’s 30 per cent lower.
If, however, the country continues along its current path, the CER report forecasts that oil production will be 20 per cent higher in 2050 than in 2022, and natural-gas production 24 per cent higher.
Jean-Denis Charlebois, the regulator’s chief economist, said conventional production could prove more resilient than the oil sands under both net-zero scenarios, because of price uncertainty and the cost of decarbonization measures such as CCUS.
The report hasn’t changed the plans of Pathways Alliance, a collaboration of Canada’s largest oil sands producers that aims to reach net-zero production by 2050. Mark Cameron, the alliance’s vice-president, said the net-zero scenarios underscore the importance of CCUS in meeting its goal.
“Last year was a record year for global oil demand,” he noted in an interview. “So I don’t think I would assume that we’re going to … all of a sudden be on that global net-zero track. So I think we really need to focus on what we can do to reduce emissions at home and Canada.”
Mr. Wilkinson said the report underscores the urgency with which the oil and gas sector must decarbonize production “both to enable Canada to meet its own domestic climate obligations, but also to enhance the competitiveness of our products in international markets.”
Chris Severson-Baker, executive director of the Pembina Institute, a think tank, said the energy transformation outlined in the report “demands proactive preparations on the part of responsible governments, federally and provincially, in order for Canada to remain competitive.”
TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.
Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.
Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).
SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.
The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.
WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.
SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.
SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.
SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.
The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.
Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.
“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.
“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”
Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.
On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.
If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.
These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.
If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.
However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.
He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.
“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.
Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.
The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.
Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.
Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.
Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.
Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.
Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”
In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.
“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.
TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.
The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.
The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.
RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.
The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.
RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.
