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Canadian home prices have stabilized. Will incomes ever catch up?

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Canadians looking to buy a home continue to face hurdles as costs keep piling up.

While the housing market is showing signs of stability, rising mortgage rates and still-elevated home prices mean an increase in the income needed to purchase a home, according to a new report.

The analysis by Ratehub.ca published Tuesday shows the income needed to buy an average-priced home in 10 of Canada’s major cities increased from June to July of this year.

In some of the biggest cities like Toronto and Vancouver, the average price for a home ranges from $1.16 million in the former to $1.21 in the West Coast city. And to afford such a home, the report found households in Ontario’s capital would need to earn at least $235,250, while those in Vancouver would need at least $244,620 gross.

Even in cities that saw home prices drop, such as Ottawa where an average home is about $650,200, Canadians’ needed income still rose by about $3,600 with someone having to earn $138,260 a year to buy property, according to Ratehub.

The data was based on a mortgage with a 20 per cent down payment and a 25-year amortization, with $4,000 in property taxes and $150 for monthly heating.

“Home values are sort of going sideways, but interest rates continue to rise so much that qualifying for that average home, financing that average home is becoming increasingly difficult and it is the most difficult it’s ever been,” Ratehub.ca co-CEO James Laird told Global News.

One of the big factors that stood out in the report, he said, was the mortgage stress test, which now sits at around eight per cent or higher for most Canadians.

The stress test, introduced in 2018, requires borrowers to qualify for either the minimum qualifying rate of 5.25 per cent or the contract rate plus two percentage points, whichever is higher.

This, Laird says, means whether taking a variable or fixed interest rate when trying to qualify for a home, it’s going to be more difficult, and people will need more income if they want to qualify.


A new report shows the amount of income a Canadian needs to afford an average home price in Canada’s major cities has increased by anywhere from $2,000 to almost $9,000 in just one month.


RateHub.ca

The income needed to purchase a home has risen from just five months ago when Ratehub.ca released a similar report.

That report found Toronto homebuyers would need an annual income of $217,000 and $221,580 in Vancouver — meaning the income needed raised by nearly $20,000 in both cities.

The data was released just a day after Housing Minister Sean Fraser said the federal government should never have got out of the housing business, and on Wednesday told reporters there are “conversations” being had about getting the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation back into the affordable home-building game.

But Fraser has not provided additional detail on whether or not the feds will get involved or how they could do so going forward, though said people shouldn’t be paying more than 30 per cent of their income for a home.

“If you work in Canada, you should be able to afford a place to call home,” he said.

Laird said the best way to tackle the issue is one that has been referenced for some time as the housing crisis continues — build more homes.

“If we don’t build the homes, home values will rise even more,” he said.

He adds that while there may be concerns about people being able to afford those homes once they’re built given the income needed to do so, having more homes in supply could in turn lower the cost of some housing.

“If we overbuilt, you’d actually see our home prices come down, making them more affordable,” he said.

Aled ab Iorwerth, deputy chief economist with the CMHC, told Global News finding a solution is also going to depend on the place where people are trying to buy and as people wait in hope of eventually being able to buy, governments are going to need to build up the rental market as well.

“Buying a home for a middle-income household, even in Vancouver, in Toronto, is incredibly difficult,” he said. “That’s why we drastically need more rental market in these cities just so that people have a place to live.

“So it’s going to vary from city to city, but certainly we need a suite of policies and a lot of options to try and improve affordability.”

Some governments of different levels are exploring other options to try and help Canadians find housing, with Nova Scotia recently announcing an expansion of their agreement with home-sharing platform Happipad that matches renters with people who have empty rooms that could house a person looking for an affordable place to stay.

And though provincial Housing Minister John Lohr says it’s a small part of what they’re doing to address the housing crisis, Leah Cogan, a knowledge transfer specialist with the CMHC, said those solutions can still help in tackling issues in the housing market.

The problem Canadians still face, however, is as it may be difficult to see a jump in household income to the levels currently needed in most major cities studied, Laird says, adding that it leaves people’s budgets being pinched and putting the goal of home ownership further away.

“What it really means is that many people who are maybe planning on purchasing their first home this summer or this fall, they’re probably going to pause or they’re going to have to earn more income or they’re going to have to wait until they find a partner to purchase with,” he said.

— With files from the Canadian Press

 

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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