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Canadian Real Estate In A “Melt Up,” and Little Chance of Stopping It By Spring: BMO – Better Dwelling

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Canadian real estate is in a “melt up,” says one of the country’s largest banks. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic sent a brief research note literally titled “Melt Up,” with his take on the latest real estate numbers. The term is typically used to describe rapid, and unsustainable price growth for an asset. It’s also more commonly known as the final stage of a bubble. The economist sees little stopping it, as the market gears up for the busy Spring season.

Canadian Real Estate Is In A “Melt Up”

The bank’s senior economist is calling attention to price growth acceleration going vertical. “The 1-month change is faster than the 3-month; which is faster than the 6-month; which is faster than the 12-month,” he describes the trend. Further adding, “In all cases but the 12-month (and that won’t be long either), price growth has accelerated through the rates seen in 2017, when policy makers were working on multiple fronts to tame the market”

Canadian Real Estate Price Growth

Price growth for CREA’s benchmark home across Canada. The 3 and 1 month trends are expressed as the annualized rate of growth. Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

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Kavcic also doesn’t see any near-term way to stop the mania. During the 2017 foreign buyer “mini-bubble,” governments were openly engaged in cooling measures. This time, there’s little discussion occurring at any level of government.

Since governments need public feedback on measures, there’s usually public discussion. At this point, it would be too late to bring in any cooling measures, going into the Spring. “Spring is in the air and there’s little at the moment to get this momentum in check…” his report finishes. 

What The Heck Is A Melt Up? 

I know, it sounds delicious — how can it be bad for you? Kavcic’s brief note doesn’t get into the meaning of a melt up, but the choice of words is an interesting one. A melt-up, by definition, is an unexpected and sharp rise in the price of an asset (or whole class).

Melt ups are FOMO driven purchases, with no fundamental basis on price movement. Buyers bid based solely on the fact they think the pain of buying later will be greater than today. The only risk they see is paying more later, and not capturing those sweet, epic gains.

Melt ups are great for trading, but long-term investors are cautious of participation. The stampede of investors means future buyers are squeezing into a smaller window. While this creates bidding wars to drive prices higher, it also pulls forward demand.

Sellers benefit from the demand pulled forward today, but future sellers won’t. Since future demand was borrowed, it tends to leave a smaller pool for those that didn’t sell into the melt up. The lack of liquidity can lead to lower prices, especially if there’s a pent-up supply side. The length of a melt up varies, but it’s almost always the final stage of a bubble.

The current melt up isn’t just confined to Canadian housing, it’s a global phenomenon. Jeremy Grantham, founder of GMO, told the Financial Times, global markets are seeing a melt up that now rivals the two biggest bubbles in history. “There is as much craziness now as there was in late 1999 or 1929,” said the billionaire and legendary investor. The 1929 market was considered the textbook example of a melt up, though we might get a better example soon.  

Cheap money doesn’t work the way governments want it to, because households use it the way they know how. It’s hard to convince someone to use cheap credit to start a business, when houses and stocks are making more than they ever could. Are the returns in real estate great right now? Of course, and you’d have a hard time explaining risks to anyone that made $44,000 in a month just by owning a home. Are the returns in everything great right now? Absolutely, and that’s the problem. No one sees the risk of leverage right now, they see the risk of being left behind.

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Developer Sam Mizrahi files lawsuit against Edward Rogers and his real estate fund, alleges $30-million loss – The Globe and Mail

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A condominium at 128 HazeltonAve. in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood. The property was developed by Sam Mizrahi.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

Real estate developer Sam Mizrahi has filed a lawsuit against Edward Rogers and Constantine Enterprises Inc., the real estate fund Mr. Rogers owns, escalating a battle between the businessmen amid an alleged $30-million loss on their flagship condo project.

In a lawsuit filed this month in Ontario Superior Court, Mr. Mizrahi alleges Mr. Rogers and his business partner Robert Hiscox, who co-own Constantine, blocked multiple attempts made by Mr. Mizrahi to salvage more value from the two real estate ventures they were jointly developing. After Mr. Mizrahi’s efforts were denied, Constantine requested court-appointed receivers for both projects.

Mr. Mizrahi is suing Mr. Rogers, Mr. Hiscox and Constantine for breach of contract, negligence, and breach of fiduciary duty, among other allegations, and is seeking $100-million in damages.

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Mr. Mizrahi alleges his 20-unit luxury condo project developed with Constantine, known as 128 Hazelton in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood, has incurred losses totalling more than $30-million, and that Constantine wants him to share 50 per cent of this loss. Because Mr. Mizrahi has refused, he alleges Constantine blocked his attempts to sell undeveloped land at their other project, known as 180 Steeles or 180 SAW, and also blocked other financing initiatives he put together.

“The defendants refused to realize the profit to be garnered on the 180 SAW project based upon offers Sam solicited, because Sam asserted his legal rights and could not be coerced to agree to indemnify Constantine 50 per cent of its losses on the 128 Hazelton project as a condition of accepting the offers on the 180 SAW project,” the lawsuit alleges.

In an e-mail to The Globe and Mail, Constantine’s Mr. Hiscox disputed Mr. Mizrahi’s narrative, claiming that “in December 2021, Sam, through one of his entities, had agreed, as a 50-per-cent partner in Hazelton, to share equally in the losses of that project. This was documented in the ‘contribution agreement.’”

Mr. Hiscox also wrote: “We are about to enter the 10th year of what Mizrahi represented would be a three-year project,” adding that the project has exceeded Mr. Mizrahi’s original budget by more than $50-million, or almost double the original estimate.

Mr. Mizrahi filed his lawsuit after two major developments. In January, the senior lender to 128 Hazelton, Duca Financial Services Credit Union Ltd., alleged default and requested a receiver for the project.

A month later, Constantine bought out Duca’s debt, then filed its own request for court-appointed receivers for both 128 Hazelton and 180 Steeles, with the hope that a third party would complete sales for each. In an interview with The Globe at the time, Mr. Mizrahi referred to the action as “predatorial” behaviour.

As of January, Constantine and Mr. Mizrahi owned eight units in 128 Hazelton, and in its receivership application Constantine alleged Mr. Mizrahi’s company “failed or neglected to provide its share of the required additional funds necessary to complete and sell the remaining Hazelton project units.”

As for the 180 Steeles project, Constantine alleged it was owed $29-million by Mr. Mizrahi, but had lost confidence in his ability to repay the debt. Constantine was also concerned that Mr. Mizrahi’s company “will continue to fail or neglect to make its required capital contributions to the partnership.” 180 Steeles is located on Toronto’s northern border but is in the preconstruction phase and was put up for sale a year ago.

As the legal battle escalates, both sides have alleged the other has acted in bad faith. In February, for instance, Mr. Mizrahi told The Globe he tried to arrange financing from Third Eye Capital, or TEC, a private lender, to buy out Duca’s loan and sought Constantine’s approval, but later learned Constantine had struck a private deal to do the same itself. “They didn’t tell me, they weren’t transparent,” he said.

In his e-mail Wednesday, Mr. Hiscox wrote, “There were a number of issues with that financing proposal, not the least of which was the cost of the TEC debt being much higher than the existing Duca debt.”

Mr. Mizrahi also brought in Hyundai Asset Management, a South Korean entity, as a potential buyer for the 180 Steeles project, but Constantine would not agree to the transaction, he alleged in his lawsuit.

Mr. Hiscox wrote in his e-mail that the potential buyer “walked from the deal because of the current status of the zoning approval.”

While Mr. Mizrahi battles Constantine in court, another of his Yorkville condo projects, known as The One, is operating under a receiver. The 85-storey project was put into receivership last fall because it owed $1.6-billion to its lenders, is years behind schedule and faces multiple lawsuits. Mr. Mizrahi was recently replaced by Skygrid Construction Inc. as the project manager.

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Final Offer Launches in Canada Bringing Transparency to the Canadian Real Estate Market – Canada NewsWire

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TORONTO, April 25, 2024 /CNW/ – Final Offer, a new online platform for real estate brokerages, agents, home sellers and buyers to leverage the negotiation and offer process, has officially launched in Canada. In partnership with Royal LePage Signature Realty, Royal LePage Your Community Realty and Royal LePage Connect Realty, Final Offer empowers licensed real estate agents to provide a more transparent offer and negotiation experience for the consumer.

For decades, Canadians looking to buy or sell a home have looked for greater transparency during the process.  With the implementation of the Trust in Real Estate Services Act, 2002 (TRESA), Final Offer aligns itself well to disclose to the public exactly what sellers want for their home, including the price and terms. Potential buyers and their real estate agents receive real-time notifications of any action on the property, including when offers are made. Every buyer gets a fair shot at purchasing the property for its true market valueSellers are confident they got the best outcome and achieved their goal.

“The way homes have been bought and sold hasn’t evolved in 100 years, until now,” says Nathan Dart, Senior Vice President of Final Offer. “We set out to enhance the way agents, sellers and buyers collaborate in the offer process by ensuring transparency and visibility. This is particularly important during a time of high housing costs in Canada. We’re thrilled to partner with such well respected market leaders in the GTA that are elevating the home buying and selling experience for all parties.”

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Final Offer has attracted the attention of top real estate leaders in Canada looking to maximize the value of their sellers’ homes, while also giving their buyers transparency into what it will take to make an offer that will be accepted. Agents submit offers for their buyers on finaloffer.com and an interested buyer can have their real estate agent submit their “final offer” at any time and immediately put the home under contract.

“As an owner and operator of a real estate brokerage, I’ve seen the disappointment of our agents’ clients who lost out on their dream home for only a few thousand dollars or sellers who question if they got as much for their home as they possibly could,” says Chris Slightham, Owner and President of Royal LePage Signature Realty. “The ability to see offers in real time and to set and make a ‘final offer’ creates greater transparency and puts all parties in control. After introducing this platform to our realtors, they are seeing the confidence it gives their clients when making purchasing decisions. I believe Final Offer is going to change how real estate is transacted in Canada and beyond.”

Licensed real estate agents, sellers and buyers can all sign up for an account on finaloffer.com. There is no cost for sellers, buyers, and real estate agents making offers for their clients. Agents representing sellers can subscribe for a monthly fee.

“Realtors play a monumental role when advising clients throughout the home sale and purchasing process,” says Vivian Risi, President and Broker of Record of Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “The expectations clients have of their agent have never been higher. Partnering with Final Offer empowers our agents with the latest technology and data to set a strategy with clients to achieve the outcome they desire.”

Final Offer is currently available in Ontario, with further regions to come. Final Offer’s mission is to bring transparency, fairness and efficiency to the Canadian real estate market by empowering all parties involved to make informed decisions during the complex real estate transaction process.

“Canadians are looking for transparency in their real estate negotiations and Final Offer delivers,” says Michelle Risi, Broker of Record of Royal LePage Connect Realty. “There is no better tool available that our agents can use to deliver clear information and real time offer alerts that buyers and sellers demand.”

About Final Offer:
Final Offer is the sole consumer-centric platform, driven by agents, dedicated to managing and negotiating offers for residential real estate. The platform champions transparency throughout the buying and selling process and includes real-time offer alerts, promoting fairness and equity for all parties involved. For more information, visit finaloffer.com.

SOURCE Final Offer

For further information: Media Contact: Samantha Jen, [email protected]

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Luxury Real Estate Prices Hit a Record High in the First Quarter

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Luxury home prices have been rising at a steady pace, and so far this year, values have hit a fresh record high. According to a new Q1 report by the real estate site Redfin, the cost of luxury residential properties—those estimated to be in the top 5 percent of their respective metro area—rose by 9 percent compared to last year and increased twice as fast as non-luxury homes. At the same time, high-end abodes sold for a median price of $1.22 million in the first quarter, a new benchmark from the $1.17 million set in the fourth quarter of 2023.

“People with the means to buy high-end homes are jumping in now because they feel confident prices will continue to rise,” explained David Palmer, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle metro area, where the median sale price for luxury homes is a whopping $2.7 million. “They’re ready to buy with more optimism and less apprehension. It’s a similar sentiment on the selling side: prices continue to increase for high-end homes, so homeowners feel it’s a good time to cash in on their equity.”

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To that point, the number of sales of luxury homes saw a 2.1 percent uptick from the year prior. In January, luxury sales began seeing consistent, year-over-year increases for the first time since August 2021. Another notable trend is that buyers are shelling out all-cash offers. Per the report, 46.8 percent of high-end residences purchased between January and March 2024 were paid for in cash, a staggering 44.1 percent gain from last year and the highest percentage in a decade.

luxury real estate prices 2024luxury real estate prices 2024
Luxury home prices in Providence, Rhode Island increased 16.2 percent in the first quarter of 2024.

Redfin found that Providence, Rhode Island, had the biggest jump in luxury prices in Q1, with values rising to $1.4 million, a steep 16.2 percent gain. Next was New Brunswick, New Jersey, where the median sale price bounced up 15 percent to $1.9 million. On the flip side, there were eight metros where luxury home prices dipped. Leading that pack was New York City, where prices dropped 9.9 percent to $3.25 million, followed by Austin, Texas, with a 6.9 percent decline.

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