The world’s largest central bank is seeing the warning signals for Canadian real estate get brighter. US Federal Reserve (US Fed) updated their exuberance indicators for Q2 2020. Their measures for Canada show recent acceleration over the past two quarters. There was a brief period in the data where it appears Canada almost came back to reality. In the first quarter of this year though, buyer’s became more exuberant.
Exuberance Is Not A Fundamental
First, let’s quickly run through the concept of exuberance. Exuberance is the state of being excited. When used in economics, it means emotion and excitement is the driving mechanism. If a buyer is said to exuberant, they are buying not based on any fundamental reason – but rather their emotional reasoning. In other words, they’re paying more based strictly on the fact they think they should be paying more. Not because any fundamental basis is driving the valuation higher.
Exuberance doesn’t mean markets can’t or won’t go higher. Markets driven by an emotional state are more vulnerable to correction though. If buyers aren’t using fundamentals, then a sudden change in emotion means they need to discover the actual price floor. That’s sometimes a ways down.
Canadian Real Estate Becomes More Exuberant
Canada is seeing exuberance accelerate over the past few quarters. The indicator reached 1.89 in Q2 2020, up from 1.56 during the same quarter last year. The market has seen two consecutive quarters of acceleration.
Canadian Real Estate Buyer Exuberance
An index of exuberance Canadian real estate buyers are demonstrating, in relation to pricing fundamentals.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Better Dwelling.
Canadian real estate has been consistently in this level for years, but not as many as some people want you to think. It first breached the critical threshold in Q1 2015, and hasn’t fallen below that level since. There’s been a few periods where it almost has, which have been followed by policy moves to prop up the market. Technically the market has only been exuberant for half a decade. Although that may feel like forever, it’s not really that long.
The Federal Reserve warns this indicator doesn’t tell us when we’ll see a correction, just the likelihood of one. After 5 quarters above the critical threshold, the Reserve believes markets will require a correction. The longer this trend persists, the further detached the market is from fundamentals. This means a larger correction will be required, whether in terms of falling prices or inflation that kills the real value.
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Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley remain a sellers' markets, say real estate groups – CBC.ca
Housing sales in Metro Vancouver fell almost 17 per cent in November compared to the previous month, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
But the industry group says as trends go, demand remains high, making it a sellers’ market.
REBGV’s monthly tally shows 3,064 homes sold last month across the region, compared to 3,687 in October 2020.
Compared to November 2019, sales were up 22.7 per cent.
Colette Gerber, REBGV chair, says demand from buyers has been at “near record levels” since the summer.
“This is putting upward pressure on home prices, particularly in our detached and townhome markets,” she said.
The Sunshine Coast showed the largest increase in year-over-year sales according to the data, with Squamish and the Gulf Islands not far behind.
“The rise of work-from-home arrangements and physical distancing policies is causing some home buyers to opt for less densified areas,” said Gerber.
The total number of Metro Vancouver homes currently listed for sale is 11,118, representing a 10 per cent decrease from October 2020.
Gerber says the current market favours sellers because demand is outstripping supply.
The Multi Listing Service home price index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver — detached homes, townhomes and apartments — is $1,044,000, a 5.8 per cent increase year-over-year and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to October 2020.
Benchmark prices in each of the three categories are:
- Detached home: $1,538,900
- Attached home: $814,800
- Apartment: $676,500
The sales scene in the Fraser Valley is even hotter, according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.
It describes the level of demand as “unrelenting,” even though like Metro Vancouver, November sales dropped by 8.3 per cent from October.
In total, there were 2,173 property sales, an increase of 54.7 per cent compared to November 2019.
The boards says monthly sales records were set in September, October and November compared to previous years.
“We expected November activity to moderate due to the season, but the desire for family-sized homes and their benefits continues to dominate,” said president Chris Shields.
“Since the summer, we’ve seen the strongest demand in our board’s 99 year history, specifically for single-family detached and townhomes,”
The FVREB calculates the benchmark prices for the region as:
- Single family detached: $1,061,500
- Townhome: $570,100
- Apartment/condo: $435,900
Hamilton-Burlington real estate sales slow down in November – Global News
The latest real estate statistics for Hamilton and Burlington show the market continues to cool off after a red hot summer.
The Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) says 1,233 homes were sold in November, down 24 per cent from October, but up 17 per cent compared to November of last year.
The average price for a home in the area is now $722,317, 0.11 per cent higher than last month and a 21 per cent jump from November 2019.
Realtors Association President Kathy Della-Nebbia says there are a number of reasons for the slowdown in activity, including the rising cases of coronavirus and Hamilton being placed in the province’s COVID-19 red zone, as well as the colder weather.
“What we can initially see is that the market has slowed from last month, and this is due to the colder weather, the COVID-19 cases increasing throughout the province, and Hamilton/Burlington moving to Red Zone as of November 16 where open houses are now banned,” says RAHB President Kathy Della-Nebbia. “An extremely low number of active listings at the end of each month is continuing to drive average prices higher. It’s a vicious cycle of sellers not listing their homes until they are confident they will find another home to buy.”
RAHB says new listings were down nearly 29 per cent over October 2020 and up 16 per cent over last November.
The number of active listings available at the end of the month was 40.8 per cent lower compared to the previous year.
The number of sales of single-family properties in the RAHB market decreased in November 2020 by 3.8 per cent compared to the same month last year, the number of new listings was down 10.5 per cent over last year, and the average sale price increased by 24.4 per cent to $812,912.
Townhouse sales activity across the entire RAHB market area increased from November 2019 by 15.2 per cent, new listings were up 19 per cent, and the townhouse average sale price increased by 17.6 per cent to $606,367.
“The activity for single-family properties was slower, and this is most likely because fewer sellers chose to list their homes during this time,” says Della-Nebbia. “We can also see that towns and apartments are still quite active, but their average price did not increase as much as single-family properties, and so this could indicate that single-family properties are still much more in demand — this would make sense during these times as we see a movement towards homes with more elbow room and outdoor space.”
How to choose between multiple offers on your real estate listing
© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
Kudos: Richmond Hospital receives $250,000 from real estate developer – Richmond News
A Richmond and Vancouver real estate developer donated a total of $250,000 to Richmond Hospital.
Michael Ching donated $200,000 towards Richmond Hospital’s new acute care tower and partnered with South China Morning Post to donate an additional $50,000 towards Richmond Hospital Foundation’s Surgical Restart campaign.
He also donated 25,000 masks to the Vancouver Diamonds Lions Club as part of their disposable masks fundraiser for the Richmond Hospital Foundation.
“Having lived in Richmond for a decade and Richmond being home to most of my projects and work, this contribution is a thank you for the care the hospital has provided for its community over all of these years,” said Ching.
He added that new equipment and facilities are important to provide the best care to Richmond residents.
Natalie Meixner, CEO of the Richmond Hospital Foundation, said they are thankful to Ching’s donation.
“Mr. Ching’s philanthropic leadership and his partnership with South China Morning Post, is an inspiration to the community and we are very grateful for his dedication in building a better and healthier future for Richmond.”
The Richmond Hospital Foundation raised over $100 million to help fund for medical equipment, improvements in patient care services and upgraded facilities in the past 30 years.
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