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Economy

Canadian retail sales up 0.2% to $66-billion in May, boosted by gains at new car dealers

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Canadian shoppers showed signs of cooling as Statistics Canada said Friday retail sales in May rose less than its early estimate for the month and suggested they were little changed in June.

The agency reported retail sales rose 0.2 per cent to $66.0-billion in May, helped by gains at new car dealers and grocery stores, however that was short of its early estimate for the month that pointed toward a gain of 0.5 per cent.

In volume terms, retail sales rose 0.1 per cent for May.

Statistics Canada also said its initial estimate for June suggested retail sales for that month were unchanged, but cautioned the figure would be revised.

TD Bank economist Maria Solovieva said May brought a sizable deceleration in retail spending growth after a revised increase of 1.0 per cent for April, which was reported last month at 1.1 per cent.

“The only sector that points to a decisive gain is auto sales, where both nominal and unit sales were up,” Solovieva wrote in a report.

“The rest of the categories are a mixed bag that points to consumers prioritizing spending on groceries at an expense of discretionary purchases.”’ Solovieva said the Bank of Canada expects that household consumption will slow over the course of next year as its interest rate hikes work their way through the economy.

“With today’s reading, there is evidence that this slowdown is materializing. Still, consumers have financial resources in the form of excess savings, so the path to moderation may not be a smooth one,” she said.

Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers gained 0.8 per cent in May, helped higher by a 0.7 per cent sales gain at new car dealers and a 5.5 per cent increase in the other motor vehicle dealers category.

Meanwhile, sales at food and beverage retailers rose 1.0 per cent as sales at supermarkets and grocery stores gained 1.4 per cent.

Sales at clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewellery, luggage and leather goods retailers fell 0.8 per cent in May, while building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers dropped 1.5 per cent.

Core retail sales – which exclude gas stations and fuel vendors, along with motor vehicle and parts dealers – were unchanged in May.

A report Thursday by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce suggested that Canadian consumers kept spending in the second quarter, however it noted the spending turned a corner after the Bank of Canada resumed its interest rate hikes in early June.

Looking ahead, Chamber chief economist Stephen Tapp said he expects consumer spending to slow noticeably in the second half of the year, as people cut back on discretionary purchases.

The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in June and another quarter of a percentage point earlier this month to bring its key policy rate to five per cent.

The increases by the central bank prompted the big commercial banks to increase their prime lending rates, raising the cost of variable rate loans such as variable rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit.

 

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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