Members of the Sikh community are pictured at the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara, where Hardeep Singh Nijjar was murdered June 18, in Surrey, B.C. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
In the two weeks since the prime minister rose in Parliament to speak of “credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar,” demands for more information and evidence have grown.
Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, was fatally shot on June 18 outside the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey, B.C. He was a leader in the Sikh diaspora and activist calling for an independent Sikh homeland in northern India called Khalistan.
On Sept. 25, The Washington Post reported on a 90-second video which suggested the killing was a coordinated attack, involving at least three people and at least two vehicles.
The accusations and speculation have put the spotlight on India’s foreign intelligence agency — the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) — a spy agency many Canadians have probably never heard of.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said she had ordered “a senior Indian diplomat,” the head of RAW in Canada, to leave the country.
Until now, the spy agency was believed to operate primarily in South Asia.
But some experts suggest, given the history of RAW and how it has shifted priorities through the years, it’s not inconceivable that it was involved.
“If Trudeau’s allegations are true,” said Yogesh Joshi, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies of the National University of Singapore, “it would not — it should not — be that surprising.”
Here’s why observers are asking if RAW has changed tactics.
Trudeau says ‘credible allegations’ link India to killing of Sikh leader in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says any foreign government involvement in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is ‘an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.’
Born out of defeat
India’s Research and Analysis Wing was created in 1968 by Indira Gandhi’s administration. Until then, intelligence, both domestic and foreign, had been handled by the IB — the Intelligence Bureau.
But following India’s defeat in its 1962 border war with China, it was decided a full-fledged foreign intelligence-focused operation was needed. While initially focused on China, it quickly expanded to focus primarily on India’s other main rival, Pakistan.
According to the Council on Foreign Affairs, the agency’s mandate and powers have varied over the years, depending on the prime minister in power at the time, and not a lot is known about RAW’s internal structure, budget or operations.
The CFA cites a 2007 book by a former RAW official, B. Ramen, in which he describes RAW’s initial priorities as strengthening its capability for intelligence gathering on Pakistan and China and for covert action in Bangladesh.
A sign asking for an investigation into India’s role in the killing of Nijjar is seen at the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara temple, in Surrey, British Columbia, Sept. 20. (Chris Helgren/Reuters)
It’s believed the CIA helped advise RAW in its early days of creation and even trained RAW agents in counterterrorism.
RAW has also collaborated with Israel’s Mossad, which is open about its killings of people in foreign countries, says Dheeraj Paramesha Chaya, author of India’s Intelligence Culture and Strategic Surprises: Spying for South Block, the first academic look at RAW. While Chaya says RAW explored developing such capabilities after the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, even training with the Israelis, “that was never put to use,” he said.
“They are more interested in getting more political action that involves people actually reforming and supporting the Indian cause, rather than getting them killed,” he said.
Until fairly recently, it was believed RAW still focused mostly on its own immediate region of South Asia — Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Joshi says he was surprised when he first heard it might be linked to a killing in a Western democracy, especially at a time when India is getting closer to those democracies, as a counter to China.
“Largely because we haven’t seen that kind of intelligence operations from Indian intelligence agencies particularly beyond the region, beyond the immediate neighbourhood,” he said.
“And also because there is generally a feeling that India exercises a lot of restraint in exercise of use of force.”
What is Khalistan? A look at the movement for an independent Sikh state
Some Sikhs have historically been seeking an independent Sikh homeland in northern India called Khalistan. Experts say the history of the movement is complex, emotional and evolving.
Shift in focus
But Joshi says there have been recent signs that RAW’s reach has expanded, and that India has in recent years made clear its shift in policy in terms of using force on the international stage to go after what it might deem to be terrorists.
In February 2021, at a UN meeting convened to discuss the legality of pre-emptive self defence, India’s ambassador, Nagaraj Naidu Kakanur, argued that Article 51 of the UN Charter “is not confined to self-defence in response to attacks of states only. The right of self-defence applies also to attacks by non-state actors,” he said, referring to organizations or individuals not affiliated with, directed by, or funded through a government.
India has long accused Canada of harbouring extremists, saying Sikh separatists in this country interfere in domestic affairs in India.
Kakanur also talked about how the source of the attack “is irrelevant” to the right of self-defence, saying, “Non-state actors such as terrorist groups often attack states from remote locations within other host states, using the sovereignty of that state as a smokescreen.”
India’s ambassador to the UN discusses pre-emptive self-defence
Nagaraj Naidu Kakanur, India’s ambassador to the United Nations, laid out his country’s position on pre-emptive self defence during a discussion in February 2021.
At a briefing Sept. 21, Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said, “Clearly we would expect better steps by the Canadian authorities on our very significant concerns about terrorism, about security of our diplomats, of Indian community and overall anti-India activities that are being operated or given a safe haven in Canada.”
It’s all an indication, Joshi says, that India’s motivations have shifted.
“As a rising power, especially in the early 2000 and mid 2010s, India looked at projecting itself as a responsible partner. It wanted to gain the respect of the world,” he said. “And it would not be very unconventional for a rising power to also want to be feared.”
Joshi says the current government of Narendra Modi has increased RAW’s funding, and points out that Modi’s national security advisor is a former spy.
“So there can be bureaucratic changes which might also suggest that there is greater leeway for intelligence operations now.”
And Modi, Joshi says, has nothing to lose domestically, where he remains very popular.
Even India’s Sikhs, who live primarily in the Punjab region, do not share a desire for a separate state, he says.
According to Pew Research Center data published in 2021, “a near-universal share of Sikhs say they are very proud to be Indian (95 per cent), and the vast majority (70 per cent) say a person who disrespects India cannot be a Sikh.”
Why Sikhs in India fear Khalistan support is being exaggerated
On the streets of Punjab, many Sikhs reject the idea of a separate Khalistan and fear the idea is being exaggerated on social media. CBC’s South Asia correspondent Salimah Shivji breaks down why.
Not part of its MO, says expert
Chaya, who is also a lecturer in intelligence, policing and security at the Department of Criminology at the University of Hull in the U.K., sees it differently, saying extrajudicial killings are simply not part of RAW’s modus operandi.
“They do not go about killing people,” he said.
“Historically, they’ve not done it because there’s been a lot of political reticence towards such kind of actions. And I don’t believe that overnight you can develop such a capability, especially in the Western capital.”
Chaya says even if Nijjar was deemed a terrorist by India and criticized India from afar, the government would not have targeted him.
“I can assure you that the intelligence agencies are not going to do something that the Chinese or Russians do, because for them, they know as an organization it is not going to bode well for them once they start to go down that path.”
But RAW has been linked to operations against supporters of Khalistan in Pakistan, Joshi points out.
“In fact, RAW opened up specific projects to counter Sikh separatists who were based in Pakistan in the 1980s and 1990s,” he said.
“But we hadn’t seen that much political license and operational leeway, especially in conducting such targeted killings beyond the region.“
Chaya says he needs concrete evidence — not what he calls “generic analysis” by U.S. or Canadian intelligence — linking RAW to Nijjar’s death.
“Only then can I be able to say that yes, indeed … Indian intelligence agencies have made a significant shift in how they used to operate. And now we need to start to look at Indian intelligence agencies through a different light,” he said.
Canada expels Indian diplomat as it investigates death of Sikh leader
Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly says allegations that an agent connected to the Indian government was behind the death of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar are ‘troubling’ and ‘completely unacceptable’ if true.
Little oversight
Unlike the CIA in the U.S. or CSIS in Canada, which operate at arm’s length from their respective governments, RAW reports directly to India’s prime minister. There is no Parliamentary oversight.
If Nijjar’s killing was ever proven to have been the work of RAW, it could have implications for those closest to the prime minister or his office.
Chaya says even though RAW operates with a certain level of autonomy, any directive to assassinate someone would have to come from the prime minister.
India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) reports directly to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters)
War of narratives
But proving those allegations is unlikely, says Joshi.
“Until and unless India cooperates with the inquiry, it would be very difficult to pin down these charges,” he said. “It’s a war of narratives at the end of the day. And the war of narratives is very difficult to come to a conclusion.”
Chaya says, knowing how Indian intelligence works, it will be virtually impossible to ever pin it on them.
“I don’t think that, even if the Indian intelligence was involved in this, that the Indian diplomat in Ottawa would be so stupid to use his communication lines back to India — unsecure communication lines back to India — that they could easily be intercepted by the Canadian intelligence. That is pretty fantastic to me,” he said.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.
The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.
Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.
Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.
Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.
In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
WASHINGTON – Americans are facing a decision about the future of their country and no matter which president they choose, Canada cannot escape the pull of political polarization from its closest neighbour.
Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump present starkly different paths forward for the United States and the race for the White House appears to be extremely close.
The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and its next president will be in charge during the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement in 2026.
Harris has campaigned on the fact that she voted against the trilateral agreement, saying it didn’t do enough to protect American workers or the environment. The vice-president is largely expected to maintain President Joe Biden’s Buy American procurement rules.
The centrepiece of Trump’s agenda is a proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S. and 60 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product is derived from trade.
The campaign has been unprecedented and tumultuous. Biden removed himself from the Democrats’ ticket after a disastrous presidential debate and Harris became the presidential candidate a little more than three months before election day.
There were also two assassination attempts on Trump. The image of blood streaming down his face, with a fist in the air, became a rallying call for the Republican leader’s most ardent supporters.
Here are five things to watch for as the votes come in:
Pennsylvania: Whichever candidate gets 270 electoral college votes gets the presidency. Pennsylvania’s 19 votes could prove the most crucial this election.
Both campaigns have indicated the state is part of their path to victory, and whoever wins the Keystone State may only need two other battleground states to take the White House.
What happens in Pennsylvania may also signal voting in the two other Midwestern battleground states.
“If you are looking at Pennsylvania, think about how voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are similar to each other,” said Matthew Lebo, a specialist in U.S. politics at Western University in London, Ont.
Other battleground states: Americans living in six other battleground states will play a critical role in the outcome on Tuesday.
Wisconsin and Michigan went to Trump in 2016 and swung to Biden in 2020.
Michigan may be of interest to many Canadians: Canada is that state’s top export market and it imported about US$50.9 billion in goods from its northern neighbour last year.
Georgia, North Carolina and the sunbelt states of Arizona and Nevada could also be key indicators for who will take the White House.
Senate: American voters will be making multiple choices in the voting booth, electing not only the president but also members of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Those down-ballot races are extremely important to determine who controls each chamber of Congress.
The Democrats currently control the Senate by a slim margin and 34 seats are up for grabs.
The Senate controls the process for presidents to appoint cabinet positions and has power over treaties. Depending on who is in control, there could be consequences for Canada, Lebo said.
For example, Trump has suggested vaccine-skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would have a big role in the administration, including public health policy.
“As Canadians, we want Americans to continue to get vaccinated,” Lebo said.
Specific races to watch: Democrat Sen. Jon Tester against Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana; GOP Sen. Ted Cruz versus Democrat Colin Allred in Texas and longtime Ohio Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown against Republican Bernie Moreno.
House of Representatives: All 435 seats in the House are up for grabs this election and the outcome could have far-reaching consequences for the incoming president. Republicans currently have a majority, but only by a small margin.
Specific races to watch: Virginia’s open-seat contest between Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson; another open-seat contest in Michigan between Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett; and Nebraska’s fight between Republican incumbent Don Bacon and Democratic challenger Tony Vargas.
Misinformation: Trump has spent his final days on the campaign trail pushing baseless claims about the integrity of the election. He also said he shouldn’t have left the White House at the end of his last tenure, when he lost the election to Biden.
Whether his claims will motivate supporters to the polls remains to be seen but there’s worry it could sow chaos in the wake of the election, akin to when Trump loyalists stormed Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021.
There are also concerns about misinformation being spread by foreign actors. U.S. intelligence officials have already pointed to videos purporting to show voter fraud in Georgia and Pennsylvania as the work of “Russian influence actors.”
U.S. officials say the goal is to stoke division and raise questions about the outcome of the election.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
Here is a roundup of stories from The Canadian Press designed to bring you up to speed…
Canadians watch as Americans head to the polls
Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday as a chaotic presidential campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States, where voters in only a handful of battleground states will choose the country’s path forward.
Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have presented starkly different visions for America’s future, but polling shows the two remain in a dead heat.
Canada’s ambassador to the United States Kirsten Hillman has been travelling across America meeting with key members of the Republican and Democratic teams to prepare for any outcome. On election night, after her embassy duties are finished, she’ll be watching the results with her husband and friends,
A shared history and 8,891-kilometre border will not shield Canada from the election’s outcome. Both candidates have proposed protectionist policies, but experts warn if the Republican leader prevails the relationship between the neighbours could be much more difficult.
A cause for concern in Canada and around the world is Trump’s proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
Here’s what else we’re watching…
5 things for Canadians to watch in U.S. election
Americans are facing a decision about the future of their country and no matter which president they choose, Canada cannot escape the pull of political polarization from its closest neighbour.
Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump present starkly different paths forward for the United States and the race for the White House appears to be extremely close.
The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and its next president will be in charge during the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement in 2026.
Harris has campaigned on the fact that she voted against the trilateral agreement, saying it didn’t do enough to protect American workers or the environment. The vice-president is largely expected to maintain President Joe Biden’s Buy American procurement rules.
The centrepiece of Trump’s agenda is a proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff.
B.C. ports shuttered as lockout takes hold
One of Canada’s most vital trade arteries is cut off as employers at most of British Columbia’s ports lock out their workers in a dispute involving about 700 unionized foremen.
The BC Maritime Employers Association says it defensively locked out members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 after the union began strike activity yesterday.
However, union president Frank Morena says the employers grossly overreacted to the union’s original plan for an overtime ban, adding that its negotiators are ready to re-engage in talks at any time.
Canadian political and business leaders have expressed concern with another work stoppage at the ports, after job action from the big railways earlier this year and a 13-day strike in a separate labour dispute last year.
The Greater Vancouver Board of Trade says it is relaunching its Port Shutdown Calculator, a tool to illustrate the economic damage caused by the labour dispute and introduced during the job action last year.
UN refugee chief: cutback wise amid housing crisis
The head of the United Nations refugee agency says it is wise of Canada to scale back the number of new refugees it plans to resettle if that helps stabilize the housing market and prevents backlash against newcomers.
Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, met with the prime minister in Ottawa on Monday.
His visit comes a little more than a week after the federal government announced plans to cut overall immigration levels by 20 per cent for 2025 — a cut that includes refugees and protected persons.
The move has drawn condemnation from migrant groups, including the Canadian Council for Refugees, who called the new plan dangerous and a betrayal.
Grandi says Canada remains a global leader in resettlement, but says that pro-refugee sentiment is fragile in an economic or housing crisis and it would be “really negative” to see it destroyed.
N.S. memorial honours service of eight brothers
A new memorial recently dedicated in a small Nova Scotia community honours eight brothers whose story of service in the Second World War had been all but lost to local memory.
The Harvie brothers from Gormanville, N.S., all served in Europe — six returned home, while two died and are buried overseas.
A black granite monument is now inscribed with the names and photos of Avard, Burrell, Edmund, Ernest, Ervin, Garnet, Marven and Victor Harvie. It stands in a small memorial park just up the road from their hometown, beside the Royal Canadian Legion branch in Noel, N.S.
The number eight is inscribed prominently in the middle of the memorial.
The monument in the town about 70 kilometres north of Halifax is the brainchild of legion president Jeff Thurber, who only became aware of the Harvie brothers’ remarkable story around the time of his branch’s Remembrance Day service last year. That was when he happened to see them mentioned in a memorial book kept by the legion.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
