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Canadians are bolting into real estate jobs, but are there enough sales for everyone? – The Globe and Mail

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Realtor Natalie Finkle, in Vancouver, on Dec. 27.DARRYL DYCK/The Globe and Mail

Canadians have rushed to join the ranks of realtors and mortgage brokers during the pandemic, a sign of how the housing industry has tightened its grip on the economy.

Across the country, there is evidence of aspirants looking to capitalize on the housing boom, which has seen home sales and prices hit record heights in urban centres and rural locales alike.

The number of members of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) – which the industry views as a reliable estimate of the number of real estate agents working in the area – jumped 10 per cent to about 63,000 during the year ending June 30, according to figures collected by realtor Scott Ingram. Put another way, there was at least one realtor for every 88 adults in the Toronto region.

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Through October, nearly 500 people had taken the real estate salesperson licensing course in Nova Scotia this year, more than double the number in 2018. Membership in the New Brunswick Real Estate Association has surged 34 per cent since the end of 2019, as Atlantic Canada has absorbed a wave of homebuyers from elsewhere in the country.

The number of licensed realtors in British Columbia has risen 5.8 per cent since the end of March, after years of stagnation. And more realtors are coming: Through November, about 8,100 people had enrolled in the province’s entry-level licensing course this year – up 175 per cent from 2019.

The pandemic upended the work lives of millions of Canadians, but jobs in real estate have remained attractive. The housing industry was quick to rebound – and, with home prices rising rapidly, already-hefty commissions got heftier still. Provincial training for realtors was largely conducted online, and could be finished within months.

Agents have cashed in. Ownership transfer costs – including real estate commissions and land transfer taxes – vaulted to 3 per cent of gross domestic product earlier this year. The historical average is 1 per cent.

Natalie Finkle of Vancouver was laid off when the pandemic first hit. She eventually opted to get her real estate sales licence, which took about five months. Ms. Finkle is already working on her 10th transaction.

“It definitely was the best time to get into the market,” she said.

Not everyone will be as fortunate.

In 2017, Mr. Ingram published an analysis of the Toronto region. By dividing the total number of home transactions in the area by the total number of TRREB members, he found that there were about 1.8 transactions that year for each realtor, versus 4.3 deals a piece in 2002. He suspects the current ratio is similar to 2017, because sales growth has been offset by more agents clamouring for business.

Because every transaction has two sides – buyer and seller – most deals involve two agents, meaning Mr. Ingram’s 1.8 transactions actually amount to about four earning opportunities per TRREB member. Assuming a commission rate of 2.5 per cent and the region’s average sale price of nearly $1.2-million, an agent would rake in well above $100,000 from just four clients. But that’s before a litany of costs are subtracted, including brokerage and licensing fees, car leases, insurance and so on.

And although four clients may be the average, some realtors are doing much worse.

The Toronto market is oversaturated with agents, Mr. Ingram said, and “competition is definitely tougher” than it used to be.

One mitigating factor is that some agents aren’t truly active in the industry.

”There are a tremendous number of people that hop in and hop out,” said Drew Woolcott, a veteran realtor in the Hamilton area. “They have a licence, and if their uncle calls, they’ll do that deal.”

It appears there is plenty of turnover among mortgage agents and brokers, who help buyers secure loans. As of Sept. 30, around 7,300 new mortgage agents had joined the industry in Ontario during the pandemic. But the total number of licensed mortgage agents in the province had increased by only about 3,350 people, suggesting many had dropped out.

Naween Thomas of Ottawa became a mortgage agent this year. He’s working full time in the industry, but he knows people who have had to keep up side hustles as they’ve tried to establish themselves. “It’s the first couple of years that are rough,” he said. “A lot of people can’t seem to get through that hump.”

In his case, it took three or four months to close his first deal. During that time, he said, he kept telling himself: “Things are going to get better.”

Realtor Milan Pandey, in Brampton, Ont., on Dec. 22.Christopher Katsarov/The Globe and Mail

Real estate agents working with buyers have to overcome Canada’s scarcity of housing inventory and worsening affordability. “If you’re in Mississauga and Brampton, you can’t really help out people that are not approved for more than a million dollars” for a detached home, said Milan Pandey, who became an agent after the pandemic started. When he gets clients with six-figure budgets, he shows them houses in Whitby, Ajax and Hamilton. He’s on the road “more than an Uber driver,” he said.

From up close, Mr. Pandey can see the pain and stress of buyers who are getting priced out. “I have clients crying,” he said.

Still, he has no regrets about joining the industry after a career in tech startups. He has managed to close three deals for buyers so far, and has brought in clients through word of mouth.

“It’s super busy – insanely busy,” he said. “I wish I started five years ago.”

Editor’s note: This version has been updated to clarify the amount needed to buy a detached home in Mississauga and Brampton.

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Banks Believe They Are Well-Prepared for Commercial Real Estate Fallout – The Wall Street Journal

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Banks Believe They Are Well-Prepared for Commercial Real Estate Fallout  The Wall Street Journal

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Home buyer savings plans boost demand, not affordability – Financial Post

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Robert McLister: Tax shelters don’t make housing more affordable, but those with the cash would be foolish not to use them

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With housing unaffordability near its worst-ever level, our trusty leaders are on a quest to right their housing wrongs and get more young people into homes.

Part of Ottawa’s big strategy to “help” is promoting tax-sheltered savings accounts and pumping up their contribution limits. That, of course, stimulates real estate demand amidst Canada’s population and housing supply crises. But save that thought.

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First-time buyers now have three government piggy banks to stockpile cash for a down payment:

1. The 32-year-old RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan — which lets you deduct contributions from your income to defer taxes and then borrow from the account interest-free for your down payment (as long as you wait 90-plus days to withdraw any contributions);

2. The 15-year-old Tax-free Savings Account (TFSA) — which lets you save after-tax dollars, grow your money tax-free and withdraw it without the taxman taking a bite;

3. The one-year-old First Home Savings Account (FHSA) — which is a combination of an RRSP and TFSA. It lets you deduct contributions from income, compound it tax-free and never pay tax on withdrawals used to buy a home. You can even save the deduction for a year when you need it more — when you’re earning more money.

Assuming you have the funds and contribution room, these tax shelters can combine to help you amass a supersized down payment.

“Looking at the FHSA alone, with the max annual contribution room of $8,000 for 2023 and 2024, a potential first-time home buyer could have as much as $16,000 deposited in the account today for a down payment,” says Eric Larocque, chief mortgage operations officer at Questrade’s Community Trust Company.

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“If you also add in the cumulative contribution room of $95,000 for the TFSA, it amounts to $111,000 in potential funds available — and that’s before incorporating investment gains from either account.”

And it doesn’t stop there. RRSP, TFSA and FHSA savings limits keep increasing. If first-timers have enough contribution room, down payment savers in 2024 can sock away even more in these tax-sheltered troves.

“Factoring in the recent changes to the Home Buyers’ Plan, which now permits RRSP withdrawals of up to $60,000 — up from $35,000 — we land at a potential total of $171,000 in deposited funds that can be tapped for a first-time home buyer’s down payment,” Larocque adds.

That’s quite a wad — easily enough to cover the 20 per cent ($139,706) down payment required to avoid mandatory (and pricey) default insurance on the average home. Canada’s average abode is now worth $698,530 by the way, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Here’s the rub: Canada’s living costs are sky-high, and real disposable income has trended downward. So, how’s an average first-time buyer household, raking in less than six figures, supposed to amass such a stash?

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Based on national averages, saving 10 per cent of one’s pre-tax income per year (who does that?) would take a young FTB couple over 15 years to sock away $140,000. History shows what would happen to home values if you waited 15 years — they’d jet off without you.

If you have no other resources and your bet is that historical appreciation rates continue — despite slower population growth, more building and potentially higher long-term rates — you’re better off saving less and buying sooner with a five per cent down insured mortgage.

So, does Big Brother really expect your typical first-time buyer to max out all these savings plans? Nope. But hey, throwing a buffet of options at you sure paints a pretty picture of government effort, doesn’t it?

Ottawa’s dirty little secret is that these nifty programs crank up demand, turning renters into buyers. So don’t bet on them making the home-owning dream any cheaper, for first-timers or anyone else.

Take advantage of them anyway.

The government sets limits on these tax shelters with well-off home buyers in mind. One lucky bunch who can make use of all three down payment savings plans is the first-timer with prosperous parents.

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Such buyers can make a withdrawal from their parental ATM (a living inheritance, some call it), deposit that cash in all three savings vehicles above and reap: hefty income tax savings or deferrals (thanks to the FHSA and RRSP deductions); tax-free/tax-deferred growth on the investments; and tax-free withdrawals if the money is used to buy a qualifying home (albeit, you’ll have to pay the RRSP HBP back over 15 years, starting five years after your withdrawal).

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The more opportunities it gives people to save for a down payment, the more Ottawa worsens the imbalance between purchase demand and supply. And that, of course, boosts real estate values skyward — which is dandy for existing owners but contradictory to the government’s affordability messaging.

But hey, these tax treats are ripe for the picking. Home shoppers with the means — especially those with deep-pocketed parents — might as well take advantage of all three accounts.

Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.

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$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom – Yahoo Finance

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$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom

$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom

Successful real estate investors have long followed the adage: When there is blood in the street, buy property.

Historically, this approach has yielded dividends, and it explains the mindset behind a new venture from Hines, a real estate giant with over $93 billion in assets under management. Hines recently announced a new platform called Hines Private Wealth Solutions that seeks to capitalize on the recent troubles in the real estate industry.

The management at Hines has been carefully watching the real estate industry for decades, and they believe that today’s market presents the perfect opportunity for investors to buy distressed assets and sell them at a profit in the future. When you consider that nearly $4 trillion in commercial real estate loans are set to mature between now and 2027, it’s easy to see the logic behind Hines Private Wealth Solutions.

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The developers behind many of those projects took out loans assuming they would be able to refinance at pre-COVID interest rates. Considering that current interest rates are about double what they were before COVID-19, that assumption looks more like a losing bet every day. It also means there will be a lot of foreclosures that a well-positioned fund can snap up for pennies on the dollar.

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That’s where Hines Private Wealth Solutions seeks to step into the picture. It’s already contracted with investing heavyweight Paul Ferraro, former head of Carlyle Private Wealth Group, and raised $10 billion in funds for the new project. It will offer its clients a range of investment options, including:

In addition to these offerings, Hines will also give personal guidance to its investors on how to best manage their real estate assets. It is targeting investors who want to turn away from the traditional 60/40 investment model by channeling more money into real estate and away from other alternative investments. Hines is banking on the idea that high interest rates and high inflation will be around for a while.

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When that happens, it becomes more important for investors to hold inflation-resistant assets. That’s a big part of why Hines is betting that real estate is near the bottom after years of declining profits resulting from high interest rates and major losses in the commercial sector. Hines’s conclusion that now is the time to buy real estate is based on long-term company research showing that real estate typically declines after a 15- to 17-year-long growth period.

Its research shows that the decline normally lasts around two years, which is about the same length of time the real estate market has been suffering from high prices and high interest rates. Theoretically, that makes this the perfect time to make aggressive moves in the real estate market, and the Hines Private Wealth Fund was conceived to allow investors to take advantage of current market conditions.

Despite the deep troubles facing today’s real estate industry, it’s not hard to see the logic in Hines’s approach.

“This is a great vintage, it’s a great moment. This real estate correction began really over two years ago, right when the Fed started raising interest rates,” Hines global Chief Investment Officer David Steinbach told Fortune magazine. “So, we’re two years into a cycle, which means we’re near the end.”

If Hines is correct, real estate investors will have a lot of good bargains with high upside to choose from in the next 12 to 24 months. The good news is that even if you’re not wealthy enough to buy into the Hines Private Wealth Solution, there may still be plenty of opportunity for you to adopt their investment philosophy and start scouting for an undervalued, distressed asset to scoop up. Keep your eyes open and be ready.

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This article $93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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