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Canadians expectation if Trump wins 2020

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5 years ago

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TORONTO —
This November, Americans will cast their ballots in what will undoubtedly be the most watched election of the year.

Whether or not U.S. President Donald Trump can pull off a second win is far from certain. The Democratic race for president remains unusually crowded, and while it’s unlikely that the Republican-held Senate will vote to remove Trump from office, the results of the impeachment proceedings are still technically undecided.

What is clear is that a second term for Trump would give the billionaire president another four years in the Oval Office – a time when many presidents focus on crafting their political legacies.

But what would that look like? And what would it mean for Canada?

CTVNews.ca spoke with several political scientists, economists and Canada-U.S. relations experts to get a sense of what our country could expect if Trump wins re-election.

LUMBER, AUTO INDUSTRIES IN LIMBO

For certain businesses that rely on cross-border trade, a second term for Trump could lead to more volatility.

Canada’s auto industry directly employs 125,000 workers and indirectly affects another 400,000 workers. Some of those jobs could be at risk thanks to Trump’s war with California over fuel efficiency standards, according to Werner Antweiler, a business professor at the University of British Columbia and an expert in international trade.

In hopes of making cars more energy efficient and cutting back on gas emissions, former U.S. president Barack Obama introduced measures that would have nearly doubled fuel efficiency for all vehicles by 2025. Trump campaigned on a plan to freeze those standards. But California — the country’s most populous state — opted to follow through on Obama’s goals, a move that prompted Trump to tweet that Henry Ford was “rolling over” in his grave.

This uncertainty leaves Canadian auto makers in the lurch, Antweiler said, because they will be forced to choose which group to side with.

“Where will Canada be? Will Canada follow California, or will it revert to the lower federal standards in the U.S.?” he said. “We have a very important auto industry in Canada that is historically always aligned with the U.S., and I see a battle shaping up.”

Then there is the Canadian lumber industry, which was hit by steep tariffs during Trump’s first year in office. The U.S. has accused Ottawa of unfairly subsidizing lumber and then selling it to the U.S.

Canada has filed complaints under the World Trade Organization and NAFTA, but the issue remains unresolved, even under the newly agreed upon Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA.

“This file is still one that’s dangling,” Antweiler said.

“Ultimately, we need something that provides predictability to the lumber sector in Canada so that we’re not going to get short-changed again from arbitrary rules from the U.S.”

A RECESSION IN 2020?

Fears of a recession have been on economists’ lips since August, when markets reported a yield curve inversion. Every recession since 1957 has followed a yield curve inversion, which happens when the payout for 10-year bonds suddenly slips below the payout for two-year bonds — a scenario that is essentially the opposite of what happens in a well-functioning, healthy economy.

Trump’s ongoing trade war with China — pitting the world’s two biggest economies against each other — has only worsened those fears.

“There are danger signs on the horizon,” Antweiler said.

“If Mr. Trump undermines the confidence of the world economy and we end up in a recession, that would be a particularly bad outcome for the United States, but also for Canada as well.”

‘TRUMP ERA’ SOLIDIFIED

Pollsters didn’t forecast a win for Trump in 2016, and so his victory came as a surprise to many political pundits.

If Trump were to win in 2020, the narrative would be different, according to Fan Lu, assistant professor of political studies at Queen’s University.

“When Trump won the first time, we thought it was a fluke. But if he wins a second time, it’s a pattern and something that is symptomatic,” she said.

“If that’s the case, then Canada as a country has to decide if it wants to serve as a counterpoint to Trump’s America or follow in its footsteps.”

As close neighbours, Canada and the U.S. share many similar problems, but Lu expects conversations around immigration will be especially heated if Trump wins again.

“I think the conversation already started when Trump imposed the Muslim ban and Trudeau tweeted out in 2017 … ‘to those fleeing persecution, Canadians will welcome you,’” Lu said. “And (Trudeau) has been somewhat blamed by some Canadians for increasing the illegal entries into Canada at these border crossings.”

Since the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada started tracking irregular border crossers in February 2017, Canada has received 45,517 refugee claims as of June 2019. Of those, 9,069 have been accepted. Another 27,173 claims are pending, while 7,786 claims have been rejected.

If Trump is re-elected, Lu expects debate around illegal border crossings will “ramp up and become even more salient.”

Lu’s research closely follows race in America. Trump has called Mexicans “rapists,” told four Congresswomen of colour to “go back home” and described a majority-black district in Baltimore as a “rat and rodent infested mess.”

Those sorts of comments only embolden people who hold racist views, Lu said, including “certain wings of Canada that would welcome” such behaviour.

“So if he gets re-elected, it legitimizes this sect of the electorate even more.”

DRUGS AND HEALTH CARE

Trump isn’t afraid to call out political leaders or foreign policies he doesn’t agree with. Recently, he threatened to use Britain’s National Health Service as a bartering tool in Brexit trade negotiations.

Wayne Petrozzi, a professor emeritus of politics from Ryerson University, suspects that Trump wouldn’t be afraid to similarly meddle in Canada.

“I have no doubt. Look at his willingness to use tariffs against Canada in discussions around the (CUSMA) trade agreement. All of the sudden there was this idea that Canada was a national security risk, so all of the sudden (Trump was) putting tariffs on Canadian steel,” he said.

On the chopping block, Petrozzi suggests, could be the Canadian health-care system or the pharmaceutical industry, which sells drugs like insulin at a fraction of American prices thanks to the government’s involvement in controlling prices.

“This has been an issue that has risen to the surface and slid back under the waves in the past,” Petrozzi said.

“There’s a longstanding complaint from the pharmaceutical sector in the United States about the way Canadian governments use bulk buying in order to reduce prescription drug costs. There has been criticism coming out of (the U.S.) about what they call the uneven playing field in Canada and the United States, and they’re concerned about that … I could easily see pharmaceuticals and more broadly the Canadian health sector becoming a flash point.”

However, on access to low-cost drugs, it appears Trump is open to working with Canada. In mid-December, the Trump administration said it intended to move ahead with a plan to allow Americans to import certain brand name drugs from Canada at cheaper prices.

The move was criticized by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s spokesperson, who pointed out that Trump has offered no deadline to implement the plan.

WHAT IF A DEMOCRAT WINS?

If a Democrat pulls off a win in November, don’t expect Canada-U.S. relations to immediately get warmer.

In fact, depending on the Democrat, Canada could face entirely new challenges, according to Craig Geoffrey, an assistant professor who teaches classes on corporate finance at the University of Toronto.

Some candidates, such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, have campaigned on plans to rein in big banks. Many Canadian jobs — especially in Toronto — are closely tied to the financial service industry, and if Sanders or Warren followed through on those promises, “that’s going to have a negative impact for employment in Canada,” Geoffrey said.

“They have a lot of exposure to the U.S.,” he said. “If there are real legislative changes in the U.S. that make financial services less profitable, that’s going to hurt them.”

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Mitchell throws two TD passes as Ticats earn important 37-21 home win over Redblacks

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September 14, 2024

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HAMILTON – It remains faint but Bo Levi Mitchell and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats still have a playoff pulse.

Mitchell threw two touchdown passes as Hamilton defeated the Ottawa Redblacks 37-21 in the CFL’s annual Hall of Fame game Saturday afternoon. The Ticats (4-9) earned a second straight win to move to within six points of the third-place Toronto Argonauts (7-6) in the East Division.

Hamilton visits Toronto on Friday night.

“Obviously they’re (wins) huge now,” Mitchell said. “We didn’t do ourselves any favours by getting into this position and not being able to really control our own destiny.

“But right now, we need certain people to win at certain times. Our job is to go out there and try to win the next five, then the next three after that.”

Mitchell finished 20-of-27 passing for 299 yards and an interception. He entered weekend action leading the CFL in passing yards (3,383) and TD strikes (21).

Greg Bell’s 15-yard TD run at 11:30 of the fourth and two-point convert put Hamilton up 36-21 after backup Jeremiah Masoli led Ottawa on two scoring drives. Following a 13-yard TD strike to Andre Miller at 2:53, Masoli found Dominique Rhymes on a 10-yard touchdown pass at 7:43 before Khalan Laborn’s two-point convert cut Hamilton’s lead to 29-21.

“When you’re scoring from (15) yards out on a run play, that makes offence easy,” Mitchell said. “It’s one of those things when you get down there as a quarterback, it takes you sometimes five, eight, 10 plays and now it’s ‘OK, now we have to create some stuff and find something.’

“When you hand the ball off and you’re scoring from (15) yards, it makes the offence really easy.”

Ottawa (8-4-1) would have clinched a playoff spot with a victory.

Ottawa committed six turnovers (three interceptions, two fumbles, once on downs) before an announced Tim Hortons Field gathering of 22,119. Lawrence Woods III also returned a punt 83 yards for a touchdown at 11:51 of the first quarter that put Hamilton ahead 10-3.

“You’ve got to bring your best every single week and this wasn’t our best, all of us, from coaches to the players,” said Ottawa head coach Bob Dyce. “If you don’t play great for four quarters, I don’t care who you’re playing you’re not going to have a successful day.

“We should’ve made the tackle (on Woods), we had him wrapped up it’s that simple. Even though we didn’t make the play on that, there should’ve been extra bodies there to clean it up when he did break the tackle.”

Hamilton also tied the season series with Ottawa 1-1. The teams meet again at TD Place on Oct. 25.

“If we didn’t turn it over today I would’ve said we played really well offensively and that to me is what the biggest difference is,” said Hamilton head coach Scott Milanovich. “Even the turnovers today (interception, fumble), at least they were in their end and we weren’t giving them a short field.

“The biggest play of the game was Woodsie’s return. It got us jump-started, gave us the lead and we were kind of off after that.”

Ottawa starter Dru Brown was 17-of-27 passing for 164 yards and an interception. Masoli entered late in the third and finished 13-of-19 passing for 183 yards with two TDs and two interceptions, but Dyce said Brown will start next weekend against Montreal (10-2-1), which earned a 19-19 tie Saturday night with Calgary (4-8-1).

The Canadian Football Hall of Fame’s ’24 class of S.J. Green, Chad Owens, Weston Dressler, Vince Goldsmith and Vince Coleman, along with builders Ray Jauch and Ed Laverty (posthumously), was honoured at halftime. All were enshrined Friday night.

Steven Dunbar Jr. and Ante Litre had Hamilton’s other touchdowns. Marc Liegghio kicked two field goals, three converts and two singles.

Ottawa’s Lewis Ward booted two field goals and a convert.

Mitchell culminated a five-play, 96-yard march with a 20-yard TD pass to Litre at 13:34 of the third. It followed Jonathan Moxey’s interception.

Liegghio’s single at 7:05 of the third put Hamilton up 22-6.

Mitchell’s 54-yard TD strike to Dunbar at 14:18 of the second staked Hamilton to its 21-6 halftime lead. The advantage was well-deserved as the Ticats had more first downs (12-six), net offensive yards (260-144) and scored on both offence and special teams.

Mitchell was 14-of-20 passing for 210 yards and a TD, but his interception cost Hamilton at least a field-goal attempt. Dunbar had five receptions for 113 yards and the touchdown.

Brown completed 13-of-21 passes for 127 yards.

Liegghio’s missed 47-yard attempt went for the single at 12:45 to put Hamilton ahead 14-6. It followed a Kiondre Smith catch that was ruled incomplete and at the very least cost the Ticats a first down that would’ve kept the drive alive.

Ward’s 30-yard kick at 9:15 had pulled Ottawa to within 13-6.

Liegghio’s 19-yard field goal at 5:13 pushed Hamilton’s lead to 13-3. It followed the defence stopping Ottawa’s Dustin Crum on third-and-one, giving the Ticats possession at the Redblacks 40.

Liegghio’s 47-yard field goal opened the scoring at 2:42 before Ward tied in with a 24-yard boot at 8:44.

UP NEXT

Redblacks: Host the Montreal Alouettes (10-2-1) next Saturday, Sept. 21.

Tiger-Cats: Visit the Toronto Argonauts (7-6) on Friday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.



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Toronto FC downs Austin FC to pick up three much-needed points in MLS playoff push

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September 14, 2024

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TORONTO – Needing three points to keep their playoff push alive, Toronto FC’s Jonathan Osorio and Deandre Kerr stepped up with first-half goals against Austin FC on Saturday with goalkeeper Sean Johnson doing his bit at the other end.

A 76th-minute goal by Austin’s Owen Wolff made for a nervy ending but TFC hung on for a 2-1 win.

While Toronto (11-15-3) remains on the Major League Soccer playoff bubble in eighth place in the Eastern Conference (the eighth- and ninth-place teams in each conference square off in a wild-card playoff with the winner facing the top seed in the conference), other results went their way.

Seventh-place Charlotte, 10th-place Atlanta and 11th-place Philadelphia all lost while ninth-place D.C. United tied.

Toronto midfielder Alonso Coello called it “a game we had to win.”

“It’s a big win … To see that fight tonight was important,” added coach John Herdman.

Austin (9-12-7) came into the game in 11th place in the West, two points below ninth-place Minnesota. The Texas side has won just one of its last six league games (1-4-1).

Austin outshot Toronto 7-6 (6-2 edge in shots on target) in the first half but found itself trailing 2-0 at the break as Toronto took advantage of its chances and the visitors didn’t in their first-ever visit to BMO Field, before an announced crowd of 25,538.

Toronto had a dream start, catching Austin on the counterattack in the seventh minute. A sliding Austin player dispossessed an onrushing Kerr, who had been set free by a long ball from Coello, but the ball bounced to Osorio, who beat goalkeeper Brad Stuver with a rising shot.

It was the Toronto captain’s second goal of the season in league play and his 65th for TFC in all competitions. Only Sebastian Giovinco (83) and Jozy Altidore (79) scored more in Toronto colours.

TFC went ahead on another counterattack in the 30th minute after an Austin giveaway. Osorio found Richie Laryea outpacing his marker and the wingback unselfishly sent a perfect low cross across goal for Kerr to knock home for his third of the season.

Wolff, the son of Austin head coach Josh Wolff, made it interesting with his late strike. The 19-year-old U.S. youth international, controlling a long ball, beat defender Raoul Petretta and then waited out Johnson before slotting it home for his first of the season.

Toronto survived a nervy six minutes of stoppage time as Austin pressed for the equalizer. Austin outshot Toronto 14-9 (8-3 in shots on target) and had 52.5 per cent possession.

The win evened Toronto’s home record at 7-7-0, while Austin slipped to 3-8-3 on the road.

It was a costly evening for Austin with defender Brendan Hines-Ike, midfielder Jhojan Valencia and star attacker Sebastian Driussi allpicking up cautions to miss Wednesday’s game with Los Angeles FC due to yellow-card accumulation.

Toronto defender Shane O’Neill will miss Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus for the same reason. Toronto could be short mid-week, too. The hope is veteran centre back Kevin Long, who missed Saturday’s game after tweaking his hamstring in training, will be good to go.

Toronto has five games remaining, including three more at home as it looks to return to the post-season for the first time since 2020 when it lost to Nashville after extra time at the first hurdle.

It is a challenging road.

TFC hosts Columbus, the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami while playing away at the Colorado Rapids and Chicago Fire. All but Chicago are in playoff positions.

The only previous meeting between Toronto and Austin was in May 2023, when Zardes scored a 91st-minute winner to give Austin a 1-0 win over visiting Toronto, which was then mired at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. That loss prompted a post-game outburst from Italian star Federico Bernardeschi about TFC’s drab play.

Then-coach Bob Bradley benched Bernardeschi for the next game.

Current coach John Herdman made four changes to his starting 11 with Bernardeschi and Osorio returning from suspension and Coello and Kerr also slotting in. Coello, who had missed the last eight league games with a hamstring injury, was impressive in his 59-minute return.

Both Toronto and Austin suffered home losses last time out going into the international break. Toronto was beaten 3-1 by D.C. United while Austin lost 1-0 to Vancouver.

—

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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CF Montreal finds its groove with 2-1 win over Charlotte

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September 14, 2024

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MONTREAL – CF Montreal is back in the win column after securing a 2-1 Major League Soccer win over Charlotte FC on Saturday night at Stade Saputo.

Montreal’s form had suffered of late, with just one win in MLS since July, but Laurent Courtois’ squad showed a level of poise and control over the tempo of the game that had not been seen since the beginning of the season.

“What we’ve changed in the last few weeks or months in terms of our methodology or coaching, is nothing. We did the exact thing, We had the exact same words, and we expressed them the exact same way,” said Courtois. “Today, everything just clicked.”

Caden Clark scored for the first time as a Montreal (7-12-9) player in the 23rd minute, in addition to Bryce Duke’s goal three minutes later that ended up being the winner, while Tim Ream found the back of the net for Charlotte (10-10-8).

Montreal had the first major scoring chance of the match after 15 minutes of play. With a free kick roughly 25 metres away from goal, Gabriele Corbo sent a near-perfect shot smashing off the crossbar.

Montreal would continue to dictate the tempo in the opening phase, finding first blood just seven minutes later.

Following a phenomenal triple-save from Charlotte goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina, the ball fell to Clark who volleyed the ball into the wide-open net, picking up his first goal for the club.

“I think you don’t lose the feeling (of scoring), everything happens for a reason, you just can’t lose yourself in the chaos,” said Clark, who had missed a full season due to injury and was briefly without a club, but was grateful for Courtois’ confidence in him.

“(To have a coach’s confidence) is huge and is something I’ve had both ends of so you just can’t take advantage of that in the wrong way. I’m going to keep my discipline with the game plan and keep my head right.”

With momentum completely on their side, the home side doubled the lead just three minutes later. Montreal continued to build up play on the left flank and found a streaking Raheem Edwards in behind the defence who cut the ball back to Duke, sending the Stade Saputo crowd into a frenzy.

Just after the half-hour mark, Charlotte pulled one back through a set piece — something Montreal has struggled defending all season — as Ream rose above everyone at the back post to score his first with his new club.

The second half began in a similar fashion to the end of the first, with Charlotte pressing high up the pitch and forcing several turnovers in dangerous areas. After surviving the pressure, Montreal began to regain control of the game near the hour mark, enjoying the lion’s share of the possession while Charlotte looked to hit back on the counterattack.

“I think when we conceded that goal we were like ‘here we go again.’ 2-1 is a tough lead before halftime … and at the beginning of the half we kind of shot ourselves in the foot and they pressed a bit more, they moved a bit more forward and that opened some gaps,” said captain Samuel Piette.

“I was happy with that, it shows character. At the end of the day, we just wanted the three points and that’s what we got.”

As the game progressed, Charlotte pushed harder to find an equalizer but to no avail. With only one shot on target conceded, the second-worst defence in the league put up an impressive front and confidently rebuffed every single Charlotte attack.

“I’m a big fan of the back five’s performance in their discipline, competitiveness, and synchronization with balls in behind,” said Courtois.

“We can’t explain sometimes in a game it’s not there, they’re capable and today they showed it. Let’s see tomorrow.”

UP NEXT

Both teams are back in action on Sept. 18 away from home as Montreal will look to avenge a 5-0 rout against the New England Revolution while Charlotte visits Orlando City SC.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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