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Cannabis reality lays buzz kill on hopes for commercial real estate market – Western Investor

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Commercial real estate owners aren’t as high on cannabis legalization as they had hoped they’d be.

More than a year after cannabis was legalized in Canada, some analysts say the sometimes-overhyped economic potential of the pot industry also infected B.C.’s commercial real estate market.

As the country closed in on the legalization date last year, many in the real estate industry were excited about potential sales and investment opportunities. For realtors, cannabis legalization meant additional production facilities and retail spaces to sell or lease. However, that boom has yet to materialize.

As of late 2019, B.C. had the lowest sales of legal cannabis of any province, according to Statistics Canada, and the second-lowest cannabis store density in the country. 

“There should have been no surprise that this was going to be a slow-moving beast,” said Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president for Re/Max of Western Canada. “Of course that’s easy to say now in hindsight.”

The emerging cannabis industry has not sparked the economic activity many were expecting. While some large production facilities have been built, the cannabis market has suffered falling sales, and stock prices have dropped. The industry has therefore not had the capital or demand needed to expand. This has resulted in lacklustre commercial real estate sales compared with what was anticipated.

Ash said the good news is that there wasn’t a speculative surge in construction because commercial real estate owners want predictability and stability in demand before they react.

While the cannabis industry didn’t spark an immediate commercial real estate boom, there has been some positive impact on the real estate market, Ash said.

“The cannabis sector is adding additional market for retail and industrial use,” he said. “The story on this is that cannabis provides an additional segment to a commercial market that didn’t exist and will continue to grow.”

In addition to lacklustre demand, Vancouver’s retail landlords looking to benefit from the legal cannabis industry have had trouble obtaining traditional commercial financing from banks.

According to Re/Max, cannabis retail locations still carry some stigma in mainstream commercial markets.

One region of the province that could see more commercial real estate activity from the cannabis industry is the Okanagan, which has one store operating and six awaiting approval. Okanagan College is now offering training programs in cannabis production, which could help bolster the industry and commercial real estate in the region.

As the cannabis market and industry grow, demand from  ancillary businesses, such as paraphernalia shops, will add to commercial real estate needs – and while legalization may not have created the commercial real estate demand some were hoping for, Ash said a slower and steadier demand growth is likely in the future.

Stock values plunge

The plunge in share prices for cannabis-sector stocks is shaking up corporate business plans and changing the nature of the legal work commissioned by executives.

Instead of needing assistance in securing loans, getting equity financing or navigating an initial public offering, cannabis ventures are increasingly seeking help to restructure.

Many licensed producers that once scrambled to produce sufficient quantities of cannabis are sitting on a heap of excess inventory – something that is driving down prices for dried cannabis and forcing producers to mark down the value of their production on corporate balance sheets.

The funk that has set in has pushed down shares in the cannabis-sector index fund Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index by more than 60 per cent as of December since it hit its year high of $23.87 on March 19. During that same time period, the Toronto Stock Exchange is up about six per cent, and the S&P 500 index has risen by more than 11 per cent.

“The financing side seems to be slowing down significantly, and what we’re preparing for is a restructuring of the industry in the sense of being ready for mergers and acquisitions and consolidation – expecting some of the bigger players who have equity on their books to make moves and try to acquire some of the juniors,” said Borden Ladner Gervais LLP partner Stephen Robertson. “That and getting ready for bankruptcies, and allowing companies to restructure.”

There were hopes of taking those entities public but those are long-term plans, he added.

“A lot of our activity is related to people still trying to open retail locations,” he said. 

However, the spread of bricks-and-mortar cannabis stores in provinces such as B.C., and particularly Ontario, has been notoriously slow. 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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