Chargers vs Chiefs Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football – Covers

With the injury to Keenan Allen and the Chargers facing a short week, the total for running back Austin Ekeler’s receiving yards is entirely too low. Expect Justin Herbert to rely heavily on Ekeler against the Chiefs as he looks to torch Kansas City again.

The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will have a quick turnaround as the two best teams in the AFC West battle on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 2.

Keenan Allen is looking like a no-go but there is value to be had still in the L.A. passing game while bettors should be looking at the Chargers secondary for tackling opportunities as the Kansas City offense can’t be stopped. 

Here are my free NFL player prop picks for Thursday Night Football’s game between the Chargers and Chiefs.

Chargers vs Chiefs prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Chargers vs Chiefs TNF props

Tyreek who?

In his first game as a Chief, JuJu Smith-Schuster caught six balls for 79 yards on eight targets — all in the first half. He did fumble twice, but the Chiefs were in control in the second half and didn’t need much from anyone. He saw 46 snaps, which were just five off the team lead (Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 51) and two more than Travis Kelce.

The former Steeler led all Kansas City wide receivers with a 20.5% target share and nearly doubled Valdez-Scantling’s air yards per reception. Patrick Mahomes spent a lot of time before the season working out with his new receivers and it showed Sunday. If the Chargers can keep this Kansas City offense to passing, Smith-Schuster’s Over 53.5 receiving yards hasn’t adjusted enough to match this approach. His receiving yard total closed at 47.5 yards last week.

Last week, the Chargers, allowed nine passes of 15 or more yards and struggled to slow down the heavily targeted Davante Adams (17 targets and 141 yards). 

This is a Pro-Bowl receiver who had 111 catches for over 1,4000 yards with Pittsburgh before his quarterback’s arm wore down. If Smith-Schuster goes off in Week 2 vs. a Chargers team that his QB has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards over the last three meetings, this receiving yard total won’t be in the 50s again. He could finish in the Top-12 in receiving yards by season’s end.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Prop: Over 53.5 receiving yards (-101 at Caesars)

Increased receiving opportunities

Even without Keenen Allen, Justin Herbert has a great matchup vs. the Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs came into the season without Tyrann Mathieu, who was a leader at safety last season, and now outside cornerback Trent McDuffie is looking doubtful after getting carted off last week. He played 32 snaps before the injury. 

Herbert went into Arrowhead a season ago and dropped four touchdowns and 281 yards passing. With Mike Williams likely drawing extra attention and coming off a two-catch Week 1 performance, Austin Ekeler will be a huge part of the Chargers’ passing game Thursday.

Ekeler caught 6 of 6 targets for 52 yards and a score in the last meeting and hauled in four balls on Sunday despite the positive game script. Also helping us back the RB is the Kansas City pass rush that generated plenty of pressure last week (88.6%). Kyler Murray struggled to look downfield vs. the Chiefs and had just three balls of 20 or more yards, averaging just 3.0 air yards per attempt. 

With Allen gone, Williams stretching the field, and the KC defense starting to generate some pressure, I’m betting Ekler gets more involved than usual, especially on the short week. Over his six games vs. KC with Herbert under center, Ekeler has averaged 7.3 targets and 6.2 catches for 52.3 receiving yards per game.  

The books have adjusted Ekeler’s receiving yards total by five yards, but with the Allen injury and a potential for a heavy-pass game script, this isn’t enough. Ekeler finished with 33 receiving yards last week but also played with the lead for the majority of the game and Herbert spread it around his targets. I like both this play and his over 95.5 rushing and receiving yards as he will likely be the offense’s focal point. 

 Austin Ekeler Prop: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114) 

Hitting the D markets

Budda Baker finished with 20 total tackles in Week 1 vs. the Chiefs, who ran 66 plays while picking up 33 (!) first downs. Now, it will be safety Nasir Adderley’s turn to slow down this KC offense that will give plenty of tackling opportunities.

The free safety had just four total tackles last week but the Las Vegas offense was non-existent in the first half. He played 100% of the snaps in that game and comes into TNF with a tackle + assist total of just 5.5. He finished with 10 total tackles in the last meeting in Kansas City last year and had seven or more total tackles in 10 of his 15 games. 

Adderley grades positively in run defense and in the pass rush while not being the best coverage safety on the team which is great for tackle props. Also, with Mahomes targeting his tight ends 12 times on 39 passes in Week 1, Adderley might have even more tackling opportunities if the Chargers go to man coverage. 

With an offense that moved the ball with ease last week, the Chiefs create more tackling opportunities than other teams, and without J.C. Jackson, this is a secondary that will allow more completions, which means more tackles for the likes of Adderley.

Nasir Adderley Prop: Over 5.5 tackles plus assists (-120)

Pages related to this topic