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Charting the Global Economy: China to Power World’s Growth

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(Bloomberg) — China’s economy got off to a flying start this year, starting to rebound from Covid lockdowns while helping to boost global growth.

Gross domestic product beat economists’ expectations in the first quarter, bolstered by consumer spending. The International Monetary Fund said that China will be the biggest contributor to global output in the next five years, even as India has overtaken it as the world’s most populous nation.

Argentina raised interest rates by 300 basis points as inflation runs at 100%. Price pressures are still elevated in the UK too, but are rising at about a tenth of that pace.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

Asia

China’s economy expanded in the first quarter at the fastest pace in a year, putting Beijing on track to meet its growth goal for 2023 without adding major stimulus, while also helping to cushion the global economy against a downturn. Gross domestic product expanded 4.5% last quarter from a year earlier, beating economists’ expectations. In March, retail sales soared 10.6% on an annual basis, the most since June 2021.

South Korea’s economy likely skirted close to a recession at the start of the year, according to a Bloomberg survey, as slower global growth stunted exports and renewed currency weakness helped inflate the country’s import bill.

India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous nation, according to United Nations data. India’s population surpassed 1.4286 billion, slightly higher than China’s 1.4257 billion people, according to mid-2023 estimates. India, where half the population is under the age of 30, is set to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy in the coming years.

World

China will be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with its share set to be double that of the US, according to the International Monetary Fund. Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to add almost 40% of the world’s growth through 2028.

Major central banks may be struggling to contain inflation, but they are at least making progress toward another goal: plain speaking. According to research by economists at the Bank of France, people need five fewer years of education to understand a Federal Reserve monetary-policy statement since a review by officials in August 2020.

Argentina’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points after annual inflation soared in March and foreign currency reserves slumped, while Uruguay became South America’s first inflation-targeting country to start lowering borrowing costs. The Bank of Namibia deviated from South African monetary policy for the first time this year, and Indonesia left rates unchanged.

Europe

Britain’s inflation rate remained stubbornly high in double digits in March, another surprisingly strong reading that will strengthen the case for more interest rate rises at the Bank of England. The Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% from a year ago, driven by the strongest increase in food prices in more than four decades.

The European Central Bank is set to deliver three quarter-point increases in interest rates in May, June and July before ending the most aggressive bout of monetary tightening in its history, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Ukraine’s Black Sea crop shipments resumed on Wednesday, following another brief halt that sparked fresh worries about future cargoes from the key exporter. The latest halt — which followed a similar one last week — highlights uncertainty over the grain-export deal that Russia has threatened to quit if its issues regarding its own grain and fertilizers aren’t resolved by mid-May.

US

US workers are starting to see pay gains run faster than inflation, amplifying their purchasing power and giving the Federal Reserve reason to raise interest rates again next month.

In a US housing market warped by sharply higher interest rates, homebuilders possess what buyers crave: inventory. Buyers have begun flocking to builders’ sales offices, where offers of discounts and rate buy-downs are so generous that it’s often cheaper to buy new than pre-owned.

Emerging Markets

Latin American policymakers who led the world into aggressive interest-rate hikes after the pandemic are now warning investors that their battle against inflation will take longer than expected. In both closed-door and public events during a week of high-profile meetings in Washington, the region’s top economic authorities threw cold water over hopes of an imminent end to tight monetary policy.

Ten years after the Rana Plaza garment factory in Bangladesh collapsed, much of the work that began with a burst of reformist zeal remains to be done — throughout South Asia and other garment-manufacturing centers in Latin America and Africa. The economics of the fashion industry remain stacked against the people who make most of the world’s clothes.

–With assistance from Andrew Atkinson, Maria Eloisa Capurro, Prashant Gopal, Tom Hancock, William Horobin, Harumi Ichikura, Hooyeon Kim, Aliaksandr Kudrytski, Cynthia Li, Eltaf Najafizada, Bibhudatta Pradhan, Áine Quinn, Tom Rees, Olivia Rockeman, Zoe Schneeweiss and Alex Tanzi.

 

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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