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Economy

Charting the Global Economy: Inflation Builds; Jobs Miss in U.S. – Financial Post

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(Bloomberg) — U.S. employment growth fell short of expectations in September, while price pressures continued to mount in the U.K. and across Latin America. In India, dwindling coal supplies have raised the risk of power shortages.

New Zealand and Poland were among an increasing number of countries whose central banks are boosting interest rates to counter faster inflation.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

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U.S.

Job growth in September was the slowest this year, signaling a tempering of the labor market recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, partly reflecting a decline in labor force participation among women.

Since the last major standoffs a decade or so ago over raising the debt ceiling, there’s been a sea change in the way investors, economists and officials think about public borrowing. They’ve become less interested in the debt’s size, and more focused on what it costs.

Early in the year, the hope was that the bottlenecks that gummed up the global supply chain in 2020 would be mostly cleared by now. They’ve actually only gotten worse — much worse — and evidence is mounting that the holiday season is at risk.

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Europe

Severe material shortages and long delivery times are weighing on demand for German manufactured goods, signaling that the country’s recovery may lose momentum in the final months of the year.

A market-based measure of expected inflation in the U.K. over the next decade topped 4%, bolstering wagers for tighter monetary policy. The move was spurred by a spike in energy costs with U.K. natural gas prices surging to a record, threatening to fuel higher consumer prices. 

Asia

India is pushing state-run Coal India Ltd., the world’s top miner of the fuel, to boost production to help power plants navigate a supply squeeze. India, which relies on the fuel for about 70% of electricity generation, has already seen signs of power shortages, and needs to lift deliveries to avert the risk of blackouts. It’s also seeking to minimize short-term impacts on energy-hungry industrial users including producers of aluminum, cement, bricks and paper.

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Emerging Markets

Sub-Saharan Africa needs significant additional funding to counter damage wrought by the coronavirus pandemic, bolster its economic recovery prospects and mitigate threats posed by climate change, according to the World Bank. 

Painful price increases across Latin America in September mean lots more work for the region’s major inflation-targeting central banks. Consumer prices soared well past policy maker’s tolerance levels in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru last month.

World

A number of central banks tightened monetary policy this week. New Zealand’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in seven years and signaled further increases will likely be needed to tame inflation. Poland unexpectedly raised borrowing costs for the first time since 2012, while Romania also lifted rates.

European imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas are likely to increase this month, despite rising energy prices and a tight supply of fossil fuels in Asia as colder weather approaches. 

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Bloomberg.com

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite flat Friday, U.S. markets mixed as Dow posts new record

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was essentially unchanged Friday, while U.S. markets were mixed to end the week, with the Dow ekeing out a new record high.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 1.28 points at 23,867.55.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 38.17 points at 42,063.36. The S&P 500 index was down 11.09 points at 5,702.55, while the Nasdaq composite was down 65.66 points at 17,948.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.72 cents UScompared with 73.73 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 16 cents at US$71 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up 12 cents at US$2.72 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$31.60 at US$2,646.20 an ounceand the December copper contract was down a penny at US$4.34 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Bank of Canada trying to figure out how AI might affect inflation, Macklem says

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OTTAWA – Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says there is a lot of uncertainty around how artificial intelligence could affect the economy moving forward, including the labour market and price growth.

In a speech in Toronto at the Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference, the governor said Friday that the central bank is approaching the issue cautiously to get a better understanding of how AI could affect its job of keeping inflation low and stable.

“Be wary of anyone who claims to know where AI will take us. There is too much uncertainty to be confident,” Macklem said in prepared remarks.

“We don’t know how quickly AI will continue to advance. And we don’t know the timing and extent of its economic and social impacts.”

The governor said AI has the potential of increasing labour productivity, which would raise living standards and grow the economy without boosting inflation.

In the short-term, he said investment in AI is adding to demand and could be inflationary.

However, Macklem also highlighted more pessimistic scenarios, where AI could destroy more jobs than it creates or lead to less competition rather than more.

The governor called on academics and businesses to work together to shed more light on the potential effects of AI on the economy.

“When you enter a dark room, you don’t go charging in. You cautiously feel your way around. And you try to find the light switch. That is what we are doing. What we central bankers need is more light,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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