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Charting the Global Economy: Inflation Cools Further in US

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(Bloomberg) — The US inflation rate slipped to a more than two-year low, spelling relief for American consumers and moving the Federal Reserve a step closer toward ending an historic cycle of interest-rate hikes.

China’s economy continues to struggle, with recent trade figures showing the largest drop in exports since early 2020. Industrial output in Europe remains weak, while strong wage growth in the UK threatens to add to inflationary pressures.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

US & Canada

US inflation cooled sharply last month, offering fresh hope that the Fed can wrap up the most aggressive tightening in decades soon after an expected hike at their July 25-26 meeting.

The Bank of Canada raised interest rates for a second straight meeting, keeping the door open for more hikes as it pushed back inflation’s return to its 2% target. At 5%, the overnight lending rate is the highest in 22 years.

Some 72,700 people in families with children were experiencing homelessness in 20 of the largest cities in the US as of January, a 37.6% jump from a year before, according to an analysis of data provided by jurisdictions. In New York, that figure shot up by two thirds, while Chicago, the District of Columbia and Fort Worth, Texas, also saw outsize increases.

Asia

China is facing pressure on trade as foreign shipments drop off and domestic demand remains weak, with a darkening global growth outlook and geopolitical tensions making a reprieve unlikely anytime soon.

India, the world’s biggest rice shipper, is considering banning exports of most varieties, a move that may send already lofty global prices higher as the disruptive El Niño weather pattern returns.

Australia’s business conditions showed ongoing resilience in June, defying the Reserve Bank’s more than yearlong tightening cycle and warnings of slower economic growth, while consumer confidence remained in “deeply pessimistic” territory.

Europe

UK wages rose more than expected to a level that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said is fueling inflation, maintaining pressure for higher interest rates. Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose 7.3% in the three months through May from a year ago.

Euro-area industrial production rose less than anticipated in May — adding to signs that manufacturing is struggling to regain momentum after the 20-nation bloc suffered a recession over the winter.

Emerging Markets

Southeast Asian nations that were counting on Chinese travelers to drive tourism revenues and their economies post-Covid are finding the flow of visitors far from the flood they were hoping for. The visitor statistics suggest that Southeast Asia’s economic recovery this year will be muted.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its oil production cuts — part of a largely unsuccessful bid to raise prices — may trigger an economic contraction in what was the Group of 20’s fastest-growing country last year.

Brazil’s inflation fell below target in June to hit its slowest level since September 2020, clearing the way for the central bank to begin cutting interest rates at its next meeting.

World

Israel left interest rates unchanged for the first time in over a year while New Zealand’s central bank stood pat for the first time since August 2021. Peru kept borrowing costs at a 22-year high and South Korea held rates steady.

—With assistance from Philip Aldrick, Erik Hertzberg, James Mayger, Abeer Abu Omar, Aline Oyamada, Swati Pandey, Pratik Parija, Tom Rees, Andrew Rosati, Augusta Saraiva, Zoe Schneeweiss, Siddhartha Singh, Randy Thanthong-Knight, Fran Wang, Lucy White, Sonja Wind and Yihui Xie.

 

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S&P/TSX composite gains almost 100 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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