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China aim relax birth policy but wary of social risks, sources say

Published

3 years ago

May 17, 2021

China will tread carefully in relaxing its birth policies for fear of harming social stability, even as the latest census highlights the urgency to address the country’s declining birth trends and ageing population, policy sources said.

Expectations for birth policy reforms are rising after the 2020 census last week showed China’s population grew at its slowest in the last decade since the 1950s as births declined and ageing accelerated.

A fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman in 2020, on par with ageing societies like Japan and Italy, underscores the risk for China: the world’s second-biggest economy may already be in irreversible population decline without having first accumulated the household wealth of G7 nations.

Top leaders are working out a broader plan to cope with demographic challenges, the sources said, including more effective ways to encourage childbearing by easing financial burdens on couples, rather than simply removing birth curbs.

Raising the retirement age, which Beijing has said will be done gradually, will help slow a decline in the workforce and eventually ease pressures on the under-funded pension system, they said.

China introduced a controversial “one-child policy” in the late 1970s but relaxed restrictions in 2016 to allow all couples to have two children as it tried to rebalance its rapidly-ageing population. The change, however, failed to halt declining births.

The sources said they expect Beijing to encourage more childbearing under the current policy framework, before fully lifting birth restrictions over the next 3-5 years.

Removing birth restrictions could have unintended consequences: a limited impact on city dwellers, who are reluctant to have more children due to high costs, while rural families could expand faster, adding to poverty and employment pressures, the sources said.

“If we free up policy, people in the countryside could be more willing to give birth than those in the cities, and there could be other problems,” said a policy source who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The sources are involved in policy discussions but not the final decision-making process.

The State Council Information Office did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

China aims to create at least 10 million new urban jobs a year, even as the working age population shrinks.

Liu Huan, an adviser to the Chinese cabinet, said China’s main population challenge is not size but ageing, which will put heavy pressure on government finances.

“It’s hard to resolve the birth problem given high housing, medical and education costs,” he told Reuters. “So we should have comprehensive policies.”

CALLS FOR CHANGE

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has in recent weeks become more vocal about the sensitive population issue.

In April, the PBOC said in a working paper that China should “fully liberalise and vigorously encourage childbirth” to offset the economic impact, saying China should draw lessons from Japan’s “lost 20 years”.

The demographic shifts could lead to economic stagnation, a falling savings rate and asset price deflation, while the current pension system is ill-prepared for the ageing trajectory, it said.

The proportion of people aged 65 and above hit 13.5% in 2020, up from 8.87% in 2010.

But changes to the present policy will likely be gradual.

“Major policy decisions will come only when the pressure is big enough. Whether we change policy depends on assessments of the impact on social stability,” said a government adviser, who also declined to be named.

TALENT DIVIDEND

Deepening rivalry with the United States has raised the urgency for China to build a more innovation-driven economy. Under President Xi Jinping’s “dual circulation” strategy, China aims to ease dependence on overseas markets and technology.

“We should make a transition from population dividend to talent dividend,” the first policy source said.

The census showed improved education over the last decade. The proportion of people with university education rose to 15.5% from 8.9%, and average years of schooling for people aged 15 or above edged up to 9.9 years from 9.1 years.

Rob Subbaraman, chief economist at Nomura, said “reducing demographic headwinds” will be a rising priority for China as it seeks to avoid the so-called middle income trap.

“The experiences of other Asian countries show that it is challenging to encourage society to increase the fertility rate, but all efforts should be tried to increase the labour force and make it more productive.”

(Editing by Tony Munroe and Jacqueline Wong)

News

Allen nets shutout as Devils burn Oilers 3-0

Published

2 hours ago

November 4, 2024

Anne Joseph

EDMONTON – Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his career as the New Jersey Devils closed out their Western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Monday.

Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored for the Devils (8-5-2) who have won three of their last four on the heels on a four-game losing skid.

The Oilers (6-6-1) had their modest two-game winning streak snapped.

Calvin Pickard made 13 stops between the pipes for Edmonton.

TAKEAWAYS

Devils: In addition to his goal, Bratt picked up his 12th assist of the young season to give him nine points in his last eight games and now 15 points overall. Nico Hischier remains in the team lead, picking up an assist of his own to give him 16 points for the campaign. He has a point in all but four games this season.

Oilers: Forward Leon Draisaitl was held pointless after recording six points in his previous two games and nine points in his previous four. Draisaitl usually has strong showings against the Devils, coming into the contest with an eight-game point streak against New Jersey and 11 goals in 17 games.

KEY MOMENT

New Jersey took a 2-0 lead on the power play with 3:26 remaining in the second period as Hischier made a nice feed into the slot to Bratt, who wired his third of the season past Pickard.

KEY RETURN?

Oilers star forward and captain Connor McDavid took part in the optional morning skate for the Oilers, leading to hopes that he may be back sooner rather than later. McDavid has been expected to be out for two to three weeks with an ankle injury suffered during the first shift of last Monday’s loss in Columbus.

OILERS DEAL FOR D-MAN

The Oilers have acquired defenceman Ronnie Attard from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for defenceman Ben Gleason.

The 6-foot-3 Attard has spent the past three season in the Flyers organization seeing action in 29 career games. The 25-year-old right-shot defender and Western Michigan University grad was originally selected by Philadelphia in the third round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Attard will report to the Oilers’ AHL affiliate in Bakersfield.

UP NEXT

Devils: Host the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday.

Oilers: Host the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.

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Mahomes throws 3 TD passes, unbeaten Chiefs beat Buccaneers 30-24 in OT

Published

2 hours ago

November 4, 2024

Anne Joseph

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Patrick Mahomes threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, and Kareem Hunt pounded into the end zone from two yards out in overtime to give the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs a 30-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.

DeAndre Hopkins had two touchdown receptions for the Chiefs (8-0), who drove through the rain for two fourth-quarter scores to take a 24-17 lead with 4:17 left. But then Kansas City watched as Baker Mayfield led the Bucs the other way in the final minute, hitting Ryan Miller in the end zone with 27 seconds to go in regulation time.

Tampa Bay (4-5) elected to kick the extra point and force overtime, rather than go for a two-point conversion and the win. And it cost the Buccaneers when Mayfield called tails and the coin flip was heads. Mahomes and the Chiefs took the ball, he was 5-for-5 passing on their drive in overtime, and Hunt finished his 106-yard rushing day with the deciding TD plunge.

Travis Kelce had 14 catches for 100 yards with girlfriend Taylor Swift watching from a suite, and Hopkins finished with eight catches for 86 yards as the Chiefs ran their winning streak to 14 dating to last season. They became the sixth Super Bowl champion to start 8-0 the following season.

Mayfield finished with 200 yards and two TDs passing for the Bucs, who have lost four of their last five.

It was a memorable first half for two players who had been waiting to play in Arrowhead Stadium.

The Bucs’ Rachaad White grew up about 10 minutes away in a tough part of Kansas City, but his family could never afford a ticket for him to see a game. He wound up on a circuitous path through Division II Nebraska-Kearney and a California junior college to Arizona State, where he eventually became of a third-round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2022 draft.

Two year later, White finally got into Arrowhead — and the end zone. He punctuated his seven-yard scoring run in the second quarter, which gave the Bucs a 7-3 lead, by nearly tossing the football into the second deck.

Then it was Hopkins’ turn in his first home game since arriving in Kansas City from a trade with the Titans.

The three-time All-Pro, who already had caught four passes, reeled in a third-down heave from Mahomes amid triple coverage for a 35-yard gain inside the Tampa Bay five-yard line. Three plays later, Mahomes found him in the back of the end zone, and Hopkins celebrated his first TD with the Chiefs with a dance from “Remember the Titans.”

Tampa Bay tried to seize control with consecutive scoring drives to start the second half. The first ended with a TD pass to Cade Otton, the latest tight end to shred the Chiefs, and Chase McLaughlin’s 47-yard field goal gave the Bucs a 17-10 lead.

The Chiefs answered in the fourth quarter. Mahomes marched them through the rain 70 yards for a tying touchdown pass, which he delivered to Samaje Perine while landing awkwardly and tweaking his left ankle, and then threw a laser to Hopkins on third-and-goal from the Buccaneers’ five-yard line to give Kansas City the lead.

Tampa Bay promptly went three-and-out, but its defence got the ball right back, and this time Mayfield calmly led his team down field. His capped the drive with a touchdown throw to Miller — his first career TD catch — with 27 seconds to go, and Tampa Bay elected to play for overtime.

UP NEXT

Buccaneers: Host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

Chiefs: Host the Denver Broncos on Sunday.

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AP NFL:

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NHL roundup: Kuemper helps visiting Kings shut out Predators 3-0

Published

2 hours ago

November 4, 2024

Anne Joseph

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Darcy Kuemper made 16 saves for his first shutout of the season and 32nd overall, helping the Los Angeles Kings beat the Nashville Predators 3-0 on Monday night.

Adrian Kempe had a goal and an assist and Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala also scored. The Kings have won two of their last three.

Juuse Saros made 24 saves for the Predators. They are 1-2-1 in their last four.

Kopitar opened the scoring with 6:36 remaining in the opening period. Saros denied the Kings captain’s first shot, but Kopitar collected the rebound below the goal line and banked it off the netminder’s skate.

Fiala, a former Predator, made it 2-0 35 seconds into the third.

The Kings held Nashville to just three third-period shots on goal, the first coming with 3:55 remaining and Saros pulled for an extra attacker.

Elsewhere in the NHL on Monday:

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DEVILS 3 OILERS 0

EDMONTON, Alta. (AP) — Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his NHL career, helping the New Jersey Devils close their western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers.

Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored. The Devils improved to 8-5-2. They have won three of their last four after a four-game skid.

Calvin Pickard made 13 saves for Edmonton. The Oilers had won two straight.

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