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China cuts medium-term rate to soften coronavirus hit to economy – Financial Post

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SHANGHAI — China’s central bank cut the interest rate on its medium-term lending on Monday as policymakers sought to ease the drag to the businesses from a coronavirus outbreak that has severely disrupted activity.

The move is expected to pave the way for a reduction in the country’s benchmark loan prime rate (LPR), which will be announced on Thursday, to lower borrowing costs and ease financial strains on companies hit by the virus epidemic.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it was lowering the rate on 200 billion yuan ($28.65 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to financial institutions by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.15% from 3.25% previously.

The cut helped Chinese stock markets rally, which in turn lent support to other Asian bourses.

The central bank attributed the move to keep banking system liquidity “reasonably ample” to counter factors including maturing reverse repos, but it did not address the specific reason for the rate move.

No MLF loans were due to mature on Monday.

Earlier this month, the PBOC unexpectedly lowered the interest rates on reverse repurchase agreements by 10 basis points as the virus outbreak escalated.

Traders and analysts said cutting the MLF rate following a similar move in the reverse repo rate would help the reduction in rates to feed through to longer-term lending.

FRESH HEADACHES

The coronavirus outbreak has hit the Chinese economy just as it was starting to show some signs of stabilizing after 2019 growth cooled to its slowest pace in nearly 30 years.

The virus has already killed more than 1,700 people and infected more than 70,000 and is yet to show convincing signs of peaking with more than 2,048 new cases reported on Monday.

Some analysts believe China’s economy could contract in the first quarter on a sequential basis due to the shock to business and tough public health restrictions.

With transport curbs still in place in many parts of the country, economic activity in China remains subdued, although there are reports more factories are slowly resuming production.

“An imminent V-shaped recovery is looking less likely than a few days ago,” Capital Economics said in a note on Friday.

When compared with a year earlier, first-quarter growth could slump to 4.5% from 6.0% in the fourth quarter, according to the latest Reuters poll.

To be sure, most analysts expect a sharp rebound in the second quarter if the disease can be contained soon, but they warn disruptions could continue to ripple through manufacturing and service sectors for months to come.

“The central bank will shift its focus to support firms’ mid- to long-term financing needs rather than short-term stabilization,” Yan Se, chief economist at Founder Securities in Beijing said, noting the PBOC’s large fund injections via reverse repo operations in the last two weeks.

He now expects a targeted reduction to bank’s reserve requirement ratio (RRR) at the end of month.

Further cuts in China’s key lending rates are widely expected in coming months to ensure a recovery takes hold. More fiscal spending is also believed to be on the cards, along with measures to boost domestic consumption.

The MLF, one of the PBOC’s main tools in managing longer-term liquidity in the banking system, serves as a guide for the LPR, which is set monthly using assessments from 18 banks.

The PBOC also said in the statement that it injected 100 billion yuan of reverse repos to financial institutions on Monday, when a total of one trillion yuan worth of reverse repos are due to expire.

($1 = 6.9816 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Winni Zhou and Se Young Lee; Editing by Kim Coghill and Sam Holmes)

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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