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China Investment Shrinks in Almost One Third of Provinces

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(Bloomberg) — Almost a third of Chinese provinces recorded shrinking investment in the first half of the year, the most widespread decline for the same period since 2020, as financially-strained local governments and companies cut back on spending.

Some of the most debt-laden provinces, like Guangxi and Tianjin, had the biggest contraction in fixed-asset investment in the period, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of reports published by local governments.

The decline in investment is weighing on the economy’s recovery, which has lost momentum since China’s reopening surge in the first quarter. Weaker economic growth, in turn, will make it difficult for some provinces to service their debt, resulting in a further pullback in investment.

Along with Guangxi and Tianjin, Jiangxi province also reported a double-digit contraction in investment in the first half of the year, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg News. Another six provinces saw fixed-asset investment declining in the period, while six others reported slower growth than the nationwide rate of 3.8%. Investment in Fujian rose only 1.8% and 1.4% in Chongqing.

Debt Pressure

Local governments have pulled back on investment following a slump in land revenue, a key source of income in many provinces. In the first half of 2023, income from land sales dropped 21% from a year earlier, reducing revenue for the various government fund budgets by 17% and making it difficult for the Ministry of Finance to meet its income forecast for the year.

Guangxi and Tianjin were among the 10 provinces cited by Fitch Ratings where local government-related debt was most at risk of refinancing pressure. Tianjin’s debt was almost three times its income last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, while Guangxi’s was 144%. Yunnan and Guizhou, which were also highlighted on the Fitch list, had debt ratios of 172% and 164%, respectively.

The provincial data also showed weak economic growth in several places. Jiangxi’s economy expanded just 2.4% in the first six months compared to a year earlier, the slowest pace of all the provinces, while Guangxi grew 2.8%.

Shanghai’s 9.7% expansion was the fastest, although some of that was likely due to the low base of comparison with last year, when the city spent months under a lockdown, which crushed economic activity. Industrial output in Beijing and Heilongjiang shrank in the first half, while retail sales in Ningxia fell.

Read more: Everything China Is Doing to Juice Its Flagging Economy

The financial strain means provinces are curbing fiscal support when their economies need it the most. The main budget deficit in 19 provinces shrank in the first half of the year, while Shanghai was in surplus. However China’s top officials have vowed to do more to support growth and consumption in the economy, but have stopped short of providing direct fiscal support to consumers and companies to increase spending.

–With assistance from Kevin Kingsbury, Alice Huang, Tom Hancock and Jane Pong.

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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