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China Looks to Tame Its Booming Property Market. Real-Estate Stocks Took a Hit. – Barron's

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Guests look at the showroom of the Country Garden Holdings Forest City Industrialized Building System facility in Johor, Malaysia.


Nicky Loh/Bloomberg

Last week it was Shanghai, now it’s most major Chinese cities. China’s government housing authorities have told local officials to immediately crack down on real estate speculation.

The moves come after a surge in residential housing prices over the last several months, just as China began to control the coronavirus and loan prices were low. In fact, sales plummeted in early 2020, and after China recovered, they surged so high so fast that both property transactions and prices hit their highest levels China has ever recorded, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.

For instance, the prices of homes in the second-tier city of Xiamen, in southern China, is comparable to those in London. Yet the average salary in Xiamen is a fraction of that in London.

China has long been worried about its housing bubble, and has taken previous measure to cool the market. But the last announcement—which limits the amount prospective buyers and builders can borrow—are among the most stringent ever.

The issue is largely a big-city problem. Many lower-tier cities and rural areas are full of empty housing units—earning them the nickname “ghost cities”—mostly due to migration to big cities where the economies and job prospects are far better.

Beyond easy loans and property seen in China as a smart investment, other factors are driving the trend, said one scholar who studies China’s housing market.

“The recent surge in the residential real estate market in major cities is mostly associated with properties located in the catchment area of high quality public schools, at least in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen,” said Hanming Fang, the Joseph M. Cohen Term Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Prices for properties in areas that don’t have assigned schools are stable, he said.

“The price surge is a surge in the price for scarce educational resources,” he said. To fix the problem and curb property market speculations, the educational resource allocation mechanisms should be reformed, he said, either by making school resources favor lower-quality schools or by tying school resources to local property taxes. Public resource allocations on hospitals, colleges, parks, and other public goods should also be more equitable, he said.

Speculation, too, has frustrated Chinese officials. In a recent visit to Shanghai, China’s deputy housing minister, Ni Hong, told city officials that “homes are for living in, not for speculation,” a statement that was carried widely by state media.

Meanwhile, property-related stocks in China had a bad week. The share prices for the country’s three biggest property developers have been hit especially hard since the recent restrictions were announced. Hong Kong-listed

China Evergrande Group

(ticker: 3333.Hong Kong) has fallen 12% in the last four days.

Country Garden Holdings

(2007: HK) has seen an 8% decline in the same period, as has Shanghai-listed

Greenland Holdings

(600606: China). Most other big developers have experienced similar declines.

Some experts see potential upside to cooling the market beyond just containing the bubble.

“Despite 2.3% increase in GDP in 2020, China’s domestic consumption actually was lowered by 3.9%, partly because of rising investment demand stimulated by rising price in housing and other assets,” Li Gan, professor of economics at Texas A&M University, told Barron’s. “Policies to stabilize the housing market may also help boost domestic consumption.”

Local authorities have resisted previous efforts to tame housing sales, which account for a significant source of local-level revenue.

“This is an important signal but overall nothing new since the policy became more localized and targeted to curb perceived excesses,” said Robert Ciemniak, founder and CEO of Real Estate Foresight, a Hong Kong-based research and analytics firm focused on China property markets. “Tighten where it’s too hot, ease where it cools too much. More significant is the tightening on developers’ financing and banks’ lending to real estate, and how it will play out over time.”

Tanner Brown covers China for Barron’s and MarketWatch.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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