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China may chalk up more debt as lockdowns hit the economy – CNBC

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Covid lockdowns have hit China’s economy, and the Asian giant might have to issue more debt to continue meeting its growth target.
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China may have to issue more debt as it tries to keep growing in the face of Covid lockdowns that are stunting its economy.

The country has signaled in recent weeks that it still wants to meet its growth target of 5.5% this year.

China’s Politburo meeting on April 29 sent a “strong signal that policymakers are committed to this year’s GDP target despite downside risks from COVID-19 disruptions and geopolitical tensions,” ANZ Research analysts wrote in a note on the same day.

To attain the 5.5% target, China may be borrowing from the future and incur more debt.
ANZ Research analysts

Chinese state media on Friday reported details of that Politburo meeting, in which officials promised more support for the economy to meet the country’s economic growth target for the year. That support would include infrastructure investment, tax cuts and rebates, measures to boost consumption, and other relief measures for companies.

That’s as foreign investment banks are predicting growth will fall significantly below the 5.5% number, with manufacturing activity slumping in April.

That means China is likely to rack up more debt as it tries to meet its growth targets, according to market watchers.

“To attain the 5.5% target, China may be borrowing from the future and incur more debt,” said ANZ Research’s senior China economist, Betty Wang, and senior China strategist, Zhaopeng Xing.

Andrew Tilton, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week that China is set to ramp up infrastructure spending.

From Beijing’s point of view, increasing such fiscal spending as well as relaxing debt restrictions would be more desirable than monetary easing, he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

However, one hindrance to the government’s efforts toward infrastructure investment would be the Covid-related restrictions that are indiscriminately being imposed everywhere, Tilton said.

“There are a lot of restrictions around the country even in some cases in places where there aren’t any Covid cases — more precautionary in nature,” he said. “So one of the obstacles to the infrastructure campaign is going to be keeping Covid restrictions targeted on just the areas where they’re most needed.”

One option for the government is to issue so-called local government special bonds, Tilton said.

Those are bonds that are issued by units set up by local and regional governments to fund public infrastructure projects.

In the beleaguered real estate market, the government has also been encouraging lenders to support developers, Tilton said.

Borrowing more to boost growth would be a step backward for Beijing, which has been trying to cut debt before the pandemic even began. The government has targeted the property sector aggressively by rolling out the “three red lines” policy, which is aimed at reining in developers after years of growth fueled by excessive debt. The policy places a limit on debt in relation to a firm’s cash flows, assets and capital levels.

However, that led to a debt crisis late last year as Evergrande and other developers started to default on their debt.

Shocks to business, GDP forecasts

Chinese President Xi Jinping last week called for an “all-out” effort to construct infrastructure, with the country struggling to keep its economy humming since the country’s most recent Covid outbreak began around two months ago.

Restrictions have been imposed in its two largest cities, Beijing and Shanghai, with stay-home orders slapped on millions of people and establishments shut down.

China’s zero-Covid restrictions have hit businesses hard. Nearly 60% of European businesses in the country said they were cutting 2022 revenue projections as a result of Covid controls, according to a survey late last month by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China.

Among Chinese businesses, monthly surveys released in the last week showed sentiment among manufacturing and service businesses fell in April to the lowest since the initial shock of the pandemic in February 2020.

The Caixin services Purchasing Managers’ Index, a private survey which measures China’s manufacturing activity, showed a drop to 36.2 in April, according to data out last Thursday. That’s far below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.

The country’s zero-Covid policy and slowing economy have already sparked predictions from investment banks and other analysts that its growth will fall significantly below its target of 5.5% this year.

Forecasts are ranging from more than 3% to around 4.5%.

“Given the Covid outbreaks’ impact on consumption and industrial output in the first half of 2022, we expect 2022 GDP growth closer to 4.3%, assuming the economy can begin to recover before June, and then rebound,” said Swiss private bank Lombard Odier’s Chief Investment Officer Stephane Monier.

“If the economy continues to suffer from successive lockdown shocks for key urban areas, full-year growth would certainly fall below 4%,” he wrote in a Wednesday note.

— CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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