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China Pledges Credit Boom to Push Economy Out of Virus Slump – Yahoo Canada Finance

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China Pledges Faster Credit Growth as Economy Faces Virus Return

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(Bloomberg) — China’s central bank wants the total flow of credit to rise by almost a fifth this year, as part of efforts to push the economy out of the coronavirus-induced slump.

That’s to be achieved through record special-purpose bond issuance as well as a 19% increase in bank loans, according to People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang. In all, total social financing flow should rise to at least 30 trillion yuan ($4.2 trillion) this year, Yi said during a speech in Shanghai Thursday.

That would represent a 17% expansion from 2019’s 25.6 trillion yuan in new credit including government bond issuance, according to Bloomberg calculations. Even so, the depth of China’s first-quarter contraction and the chance that the virus shutdowns will return in earnest imply that the increase may not be enough.

The expansion is “very modest considering the need of stimulus for recovery after the damage from Covid-19,” said Iris Pang, an economist at ING Bank NV in Hong Kong. “It is like a credit growth after a small crisis. We are now in a deep recession.”

China’s top bank regulator, Guo Shuqing, also reiterated Thursday that officials “won’t flood” the economy with cash. Nevertheless, Chinese equities erased losses Thursday after the comments on optimism over the stimulus outlook.

Yi repeated an earlier statement from Premier Li Keqiang that banks will need to sacrifice 1.5 trillion yuan in profits this year. That will happen in three ways– lowering interest rates, using monetary policy tools to directly finance the real economy, and reducing banks’ charges, Yi said.

“In the second half of the year, we expect monetary policy to keep ensuring reasonable and ample liquidity,” Yi said. “We need to pay attention to the side effects of the policies, keep the total amount appropriate and consider in advance good timing for an exit from the policy tools.”

China Asks Banks to Forgo $211 Billion to Help Boost Economy

The comments came after China’s cabinet signaled that the central bank will act to make more liquidity available to banks so they can lend more, including by cutting the amount of money they have to keep in reserve. China will reduce the reserve requirement ratio and use its relending policy to keep liquidity ample, state television reported Wednesday, citing a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li.

Negative Rates

Sheng Songcheng, a former PBOC official and an influential commentator on policy, said on the sidelines of the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai Thursday that he doesn’t think the central bank should take the further step of cutting the rate that anchors what banks pay depositors for their savings. That had been floated by a state-owned newspaper earlier this week.

“China is in de-facto negative rates as the 1-year deposit rate is lower than inflation,” he said. Cutting that would hurt the interests of ordinary people, and it’s almost impossible to spur consumption through that route, he said.

Overall, markets have not responded positively to the PBOC’s recent policy signals.

While the country’s central bank injected short-term funds into the financial system Thursday and cut the cost on the loans, the moves were insufficient to calm a bond market that’s getting increasingly concerned about liquidity. China’s benchmark repo rate rose for a third session signaling tighter liquidity, and the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 2.9%, set for the highest since Jan. 23.

“The People’s Bank of China needs to start using some policies to guide market expectations and to show investors that the easing cycle will be in place for the coming six months,” said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd.

(Adds former official comments)

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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