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China signals more support for real estate with a ‘big change’ in tone

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BEIJING — China is changing its tone on the struggling real estate sector, paving the way for policy support.

Beijing’s crackdown on the once-hot property market has focused on financial risks of speculation and highly indebted developers such as Evergrande. Despite recent government efforts, home sales have slumped as the overall economy slows.

This week, a meeting of top Chinese leaders noted a “great change” in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market — and called for policy adjustments. That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese readout of a Politburo meeting on Monday.

The readout also removed the phrase “houses are for living in, not for speculation” — frequently used in China as a mantra for a tight policy on the property market.

“For policymakers, the top property-related risk is no longer financial risk, but recession risk,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie.

“In an extremely top-down system like today’s China, the tone from the top is much more important than specific policy measures,” Hu said. He expects detailed policy announcements in the coming months.

The first time Chinese officials spoke of changes in real estate supply and demand was at a People’s Bank of China press conference on July 14, according to a state media report. Then, the PBOC official hinted at forthcoming property market policies.

This week, the higher-level Politburo meeting readout included similar language.

The statement reflects a “much clearer understanding about the seriousness of the situation,” said Qin Gang, executive director of China real estate research institute ICR. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

“This is a big change,” he said. He expects policies beneficial to the real estate market and consumption will come out in coming days.

The Hang Seng Property Development and Management Index rose by 9.78% on Tuesday. State media indicated relaxation in purchase restrictions could come later this year for China’s smaller cities.

More details needed

While Beijing’s tone is positive, Ricky Tsang, director of corporate ratings at S&P Global Ratings, said he’s watching for practical changes. Those include easing requirements for buying an apartment, lower down-payments and removing price caps.

He still expects property sales to fall this year and next, primarily dragged down by performance in less developed cities.

Residential property sales from July 1 to 20 dropped by more than a third from the same period last month – and one year ago, when China’s Covid controls were still in place, Tsang said, citing industry data published in state media. That’s based on floor space transaction volume.

Real estate investment has also fallen, down by 7.9% in the first half this year. It’s expected to remain low in the near term, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

That kind of decline isn’t in line with China’s growth targets, said Zong Liang, chief researcher at the Bank of China.

Zong pointed out that policymakers’ overall tone has eased, in contrast to prior preference for greater control. The idea of a property tax didn’t even get a hint in the latest meeting, he said.

He said the Politburo meeting’s removal of a phrase about house speculation means policymakers have achieved a certain level of success — indicating they can move on. That could mean some price volatility might be allowed in segments of the real estate market, but not for properties meant to ensure basic living needs, he added.

Housing affordability is an area of Beijing’s focus, along with education and health care.

Developers’ difficulties

Last year, not only were house prices elevated, but developers had delayed construction on many units due to financing difficulties. Apartments in China are typically sold ahead of completion, and falling sales cut into developers’ cash flows.

So far, the biggest real estate policy change has been this month’s extension of measures to support developers, which were first revealed in November.

Still, “developers are having a hard time raising funds from the equity and bond markets,” said Tommy Wu, senior China economist, Commerzbank.

He expects policy to focus on helping developers get enough funding to complete construction of houses.

“Confidence of potential homebuyers and housing sales could improve in a sustainable manner only when housing completion is on a firm footing,” Wu said. “This in turn would support developers’ funding and their debt repayment more generally and build a virtuous cycle.”

What about defaults?

Worries about China’s real estate market came to the forefront in late 2021 when highly indebted developer Evergrande defaulted.

Moody’s expects far fewer Chinese developers to default this year since many were able to push back maturities to late next year.

In 2022, Moody’s recorded 26 defaults among Chinese real estate developers that it covers – a peak, according to senior vice president Kaven Tsang. He said only one issuer has defaulted in the first half of this year.

But more clarity from Beijing is still needed.

Despite a 70-basis point decline in mortgage rates since the last peak, home prices and transactions still haven’t gone up, said Gary Ng, senior economist, Natixis CIB Asia Pacific.

Ten years ago, “the home price would have gone to the moon already,” he said. “That shows quite clearly there is a confidence issue here.”

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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