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China’s COVID surge poses ‘uncertainties’ for global supply chain

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As supply chain woes continue to add to the rising cost of living, concern over how China’s zero-COVID policy may further add to it is on the rise, especially the impact it might have on Canada.

Beijing’s tough COVID-19 rules and factory shutdowns can wreak havoc on supply chains that Canada relies on. Now, with China easing its zero-COVID policy, the virus has surged, creating an environment for new variants to thrive and uncertainty for the global economy, including Canada, according to some experts.

Ari Van Assche, a professor at the department of International Business from HEC Montreal, thinks that China’s move to drop COVID rules has created a lot of uncertainty that could definitely “put a big drag” on the world economy.

“It’s very difficult to understand what is happening in China because data on supply chain issues or on the spread of COVID in China is not very reliable,” Van Assche told Global News.

On Jan. 4, World Health Organization (WHO) expressed concerns about the lack of outbreak data from China, accusing China of not giving an accurate picture of the situation there and underrepresenting the number of hospitalizations and deaths from the virus.

The question of whether or not the zero-COVID policy would influence supply chains “depends very much” on where China wants to go, said Van Assche.

“If China is able to move on and ensure that we’re going back to normal, despite the (lack of) clarity that we have right now … then 2023 might be a fantastic year of breaking out of collapse,” said Van Assche.

“But if it leads to significant disruptions in an economy that already is trying to catch its breath to get to normal, it’s not really clear what’s in store for 2023, or what 2024 will look like.”

Supply chains have gone haywire ever since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic in March 2020. Shipping containers were diverted to medical supplies or held unused in far-flung ports. And in the resulting chaos, Canadians saw compound effects: a semiconductor shortage, a dearth of rental cars, a rise in lumber prices.

The trend somewhat balanced through most of 2022, with global supply chain pressures increasing moderately in November, continuing a drift seen in October, albeit at a lower rate.

Delayed shipments from China was the largest factor contributing to the rise in supply chain pressures last year, according to a Global Supply Chain Pressure Index report.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics stated on Dec. 31, 2022, that factory activity had shrunk for three months leading to December as the country dropped its zero-COVID policy.

According to Werner Antweiler, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia Sauder School of Business, China’s factory model has made the country and its workers vulnerable to COVID-19 outbreaks.

“In general, China’s concentration of manufacturing in a number of ‘campuses’ in places like Shenzhen, such as Foxconn’s Longhua Science and Technology Park, makes it vulnerable to significant new COVID outbreaks,” Antweiler told Global News in an email.

The outbreaks could “have an outsized effect with respect to disrupting global supply chains,” said Antweiler. “It is possible that China may need to revert to localized lockdowns in the absence of good alternatives.”

 

Is Canada prepared to deal with supply chain snarls?

Van Assche says he believes there will be some supply chain disruptions, but it will not be on the same scale as Canada has seen in the past, as companies are slowly adapting to the new reality.

“It will likely have an impact on a lot of companies individually, but it won’t be of the same level that we’ve seen during the perfect storm of supply chain disruptions during the pandemic,” said Van Assche. He noted that the demand for goods coming from China has also eased up with Canadian consumers opting to buy less Chinese goods.

“The severe stress on the global shipping industry has been going down, so is not as difficult as it was in the past for companies to find space on containers now,” said Van Assche.

Van Assche says the Canadian government needs to identify what goods are essential to the public and come up with strategies to build a secure supply chain.


Click to play video: 'Canadian transport minister announces steps to ease export'
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Canadian transport minister announces steps to ease export

 


In an email to Global News, a spokesperson for Innovation, Science, and Economic Development Canada said that the government is monitoring signs of strain in critical supply chains and infrastructure to “ensure the timely movement of goods and materials as the economy recovers.”

It said that past experiences have “demonstrated the urgency and necessity to diversify our supply and trade bases, embrace digital technologies, move away from linear supply chain networks, and build domestic manufacturing capacity in critical inputs and products.”

There can be various causes behind supply chain disruptions, and factors impacting shortages are often exclusive to a commodity or industrial sector, the innovation agency noted.

“Common elements affecting multiple supply chain disruptions, however, are the same for Canada as with other nations around the world – enormous shifts in demand, transportation issues and container shortages, and exacerbated shortages in skilled labour.”

“To enhance supply chain security in specific commodities such as critical minerals, batteries and semiconductors as well as other inputs that are important to support critical sectors like life sciences, manufacturing, transportation, and defence,” the Canadian government is working closely with international partners, they said.

Transport Canada also said they have been working closely with manufacturing industries and other supply chain partners to ease congestion. They implemented the Supply Chain Task Force in 2022 and continue to support investments in transportation infrastructure projects.

In an email to Global News, the agency said that the government “continues to engage with industry and other supply chain partners on any impacts to the fluidity and reliability of the system.”

Further, the National Trade Corridors Fund (NTCF) is helping ease “bottlenecks and congestion in Canada’s transportation system,” they added, while also “enhancing trade hubs and gateways so it is easier for Canadian businesses to get their goods to consumers around the world.”

“The Government of Canada remains committed to bringing forward a National Supply Chain Strategy, with further details to be announced in Budget 2023,” they said.

— With files from Reuters

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Proposed $32.5B tobacco deal not ‘doomed to fail,’ judge says in ruling

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TORONTO – An Ontario judge says any outstanding issues regarding a proposed $32.5 billion settlement between three major tobacco companies and their creditors should be solvable in the coming months.

Ontario Superior Court Chief Justice Geoffrey Morawetz has released his reasons for approving a motion last week to have representatives for creditors review and vote on the proposal in December.

One of the companies, JTI-Macdonald Corp., said last week it objects to the plan in its current form and asked the court to postpone scheduling the vote until several issues were resolved.

The other two companies, Rothmans, Benson & Hedges and Imperial Tobacco Canada Ltd., didn’t oppose the motion but said they retained the right to contest the proposed plan down the line.

The proposal announced last month includes $24 billion for provinces and territories seeking to recover smoking-related health-care costs and about $6 billion for smokers across Canada and their loved ones.

If the proposed deal is accepted by a majority of creditors, it will then move on to the next step: a hearing to obtain the approval of the court, tentatively scheduled for early next year.

In a written decision released Monday, Morawetz said it was clear that not all issues had been resolved at this stage of the proceedings.

He pointed to “outstanding issues” between the companies regarding their respective shares of the total payout, as well as debate over the creditor status of one of JTI-Macdonald’s affiliate companies.

In order to have creditors vote on a proposal, the court must be satisfied the plan isn’t “doomed to fail” either at the creditors or court approval stages, court heard last week.

Lawyers representing plaintiffs in two Quebec class actions, those representing smokers in the rest of Canada, and 10 out of 13 provinces and territories have expressed their support for the proposal, the judge wrote in his ruling.

While JTI-Macdonald said its concerns have not been addressed, the company’s lawyer “acknowledged that the issues were solvable,” Morawetz wrote.

“At this stage, I am unable to conclude that the plans are doomed to fail,” he said.

“There are a number of outstanding issues as between the parties, but there are no issues that, in my view, cannot be solved,” he said.

The proposed settlement is the culmination of more than five years of negotiations in what Morawetz has called one of “the most complex insolvency proceedings in Canadian history.”

The companies sought creditor protection in Ontario in 2019 after Quebec’s top court upheld a landmark ruling ordering them to pay about $15 billion to plaintiffs in two class-action lawsuits.

All legal proceedings against the companies, including lawsuits filed by provincial governments, have been paused during the negotiations. That order has now been extended until the end of January 2025.

In total, the companies faced claims of more than $1 trillion, court documents show.

In October of last year, the court instructed the mediator in the case, former Chief Justice of Ontario Warren Winkler, and the monitors appointed to each company to develop a proposed plan for a global settlement, with input from the companies and creditors.

A year later, they proposed a plan that would involve upfront payments as well as annual ones based on the companies’ net after-tax income and any tax refunds, court documents show.

The monitors estimate it would take the companies about 20 years to pay the entire amount, the documents show.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Potato wart: Appeal Court rejects P.E.I. Potato Board’s bid to overturn ruling

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OTTAWA – The Federal Court of Appeal has dismissed a bid by the Prince Edward Island Potato Board to overturn a 2021 decision by the federal agriculture minister to declare the entire province as “a place infested with potato wart.”

That order prohibited the export of seed potatoes from the Island to prevent the spread of the soil-borne fungus, which deforms potatoes and makes them impossible to sell.

The board had argued in Federal Court that the decision was unreasonable because there was insufficient evidence to establish that P.E.I. was infested with the fungus.

In April 2023, the Federal Court dismissed the board’s application for a judicial review, saying the order was reasonable because the Canadian Food Inspection Agency said regulatory measures had failed to prevent the transmission of potato wart to unregulated fields.

On Tuesday, the Appeal Court dismissed the board’s appeal, saying the lower court had selected the correct reasonableness standard to review the minister’s order.

As well, it found the lower court was correct in accepting the minister’s view that the province was “infested” because the department had detected potato wart on 35 occasions in P.E.I.’s three counties since 2000.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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About 10 per cent of N.B. students not immunized against measles, as outbreak grows

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick health officials are urging parents to get their children vaccinated against measles after the number of cases of the disease in a recent outbreak has more than doubled since Friday.

Sean Hatchard, spokesman for the Health Department, says measles cases in the Fredericton and the upper Saint John River Valley area have risen from five on Friday to 12 as of Tuesday morning.

Hatchard says other suspected cases are under investigation, but he did not say how and where the outbreak of the disease began.

He says data from the 2023-24 school year show that about 10 per cent of students were not completely immunized against the disease.

In response to the outbreak, Horizon Health Network is hosting measles vaccine clinics on Wednesday and Friday.

The measles virus is transmitted through the air or by direct contact with nasal or throat secretions of an infected person, and can be more severe in adults and infants.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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