(Bloomberg) — China’s stringent lockdowns to curb Covid infections are taking a significant toll on the economy and roiling global supply chains, with President Xi Jinping under pressure to deliver on pledges to support growth.
The damage from shutdowns in April in major financial hub Shanghai, auto manufacturing center Changchun and elsewhere was laid bare by the first official data for the month released over the weekend. Both manufacturing and services activity plunged to their worst levels since February 2020, when the nation shut down to contain the first coronavirus outbreak, according to purchasing managers surveys.
Read more: China Maintains Covid Fight as Virus Lockdowns Pummel Economy
The strain on global supply chains is also becoming apparent, with the PMI data showing suppliers face the longest delays in more than two years in delivering raw materials to their manufacturing customers. Inventories of finished goods climbed to the highest level in more than a decade, while indexes for exports and imports slumped.
The figures came a day after the Communist Party’s Politburo, led by Xi, promised to meet its economic targets while at the same time sticking with its Covid Zero policy to curb infections. Economists see the two goals as contradictory, with many cutting their growth projections to well below the government’s official target of around 5.5%.
“I expect GDP growth in the second quarter to turn negative, as lockdowns will likely be on and off,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The key issue going forward is how the government will fine-tune its ‘zero tolerance’ policy to mitigate the economic damage.”
Nevertheless, the Politburo’s comments — which were timed during the trading day — fueled a rally in stocks and the currency, with technology shares surging on signs of a possible easing of a regulatory crackdown on internet platform companies. Investors were also encouraged by comments suggesting a loosening of property restrictions and a push to boost infrastructure investment.
Xi appeared to soften his stance toward the private sector, telling the Politburo meeting that the healthy development of private capital should be encouraged. At the same time, he said capital must be regulated and shouldn’t undermine the objectives of common prosperity.
The pledges by top leaders came as omicron virus outbreaks continue to spread, with growing fears of a lockdown in Beijing. The capital city tightened Covid requirements over the weekend after more infections were reported following rounds of mass testing of its 22 million population.
Citizens are now required to provide negative nucleic acid test results within 48 hours in order to enter any public venue during the five-day Labor Day holiday. Dining-in at restaurants is banned during the period, and indoor venues including theaters, internet cafes and gyms will suspend operations. The Universal Studios theme park in Beijing also announced it would temporarily close from Sunday to comply with epidemic prevention measures.
In Shanghai, where large swaths of the population have been locked down for a month or more, the government announced on Sunday that six districts met the criteria for zero community spread of Covid-19 and can loosen restrictions. Zero community spread means reporting no local Covid infections for three consecutive days and if the new daily case counts are less than 0.001% of the area’s population for the same period.
As manufacturer to the world, the lockdowns in China mean possible shortages of goods and add another risk to global inflation. Despite repeated calls from the authorities to ensure smooth logistics, container goods were still left sitting at Shanghai’s port for weeks.
“There was plenty of evidence of worsening supply pressures,” Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, wrote in a note. “While there has been some gradual easing in some cities and provinces, manufacturing has struggled due to logistical and supply chain pressures.”
The economy is also losing the one strong pillar that had helped drive its recovery from the 2020 lockdowns. The PMI survey released Saturday showed the new export order sub-index plunged deeper into contraction to its worst level in nearly two years, while the import sub-index was the lowest since February 2020.
Activity is likely to remain depressed throughout the second quarter as virus restrictions are tightened in several places. The fear of widespread outbreaks has ruined the prospect of a bump in consumption during the five-day Labor Day break, which is usually one of the busiest seasons for domestic tourism.
A 7.9% contraction in gross domestic product in Jilin province in the first quarter is also a warning sign on the kind of damage other regions can expect. The northeastern province of Jilin, of which Changchun is the capital, was locked down in March, and restrictions are only now starting to be lifted.
“We remain deeply concerned about growth,” Nomura Holdings Inc. economists wrote in a note. “Despite the raft of policy measures announced by the Politburo meeting, we still believe markets should remain focused on the development of the pandemic and the corresponding Zero Covid strategy. All other polices are of secondary importance.”
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
