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China's property distress sours steel sector in warning sign for economy – CNBC

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Profits at China’s industrial firms grew at a faster pace in October, the statistics bureau said on Nov. 27, 2021, providing a buffer for a faltering economy battered by soaring raw material prices. Pictured here is a worker counting cast steel pipes to be shipped aboard at Lianyungang Port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province of China.
Wang Chun | Visual China Group | Getty Images

Debt problems at a major Chinese property developer have now spilled over into a vital artery of the nation’s industrial engine – the steel sector – and started to ripple through to other critical parts of the world’s second-largest economy.

The spreading balance-sheet crisis at real estate firms is a warning for policymakers as a swing in the fortunes of the steel industry would have significant repercussions for China’s economy, with cement, glass, and household appliances all vulnerable to demand drops.

Already, steel prices are down from their record highs seen earlier this year due to easing demand from construction activities, which account for over half of the metal’s consumption, while steelmakers’ share prices have also been hurt.

Share prices of major Chinese listed firms dropped from high levels in recent months on easing demand and lower raw materials prices.

Steel’s acute sensitivity to the ebbs and flows in construction and manufacturing makes it a closely-tracked bellwether for China’s economy, which has started to slow down from the second quarter. read more Steel firms are also massive employers that support a vast supply chain.

Hitting steel operations, real estate developers have dialed back investment in projects to conserve cash in a sector squeezed by tighter borrowing regulations that have engulfed indebted companies, most notably China Evergrande Group

“We normally stockpile steel products in winter at relatively lower prices and sell them after the new year holidays when consumption resumes. But we are holding off this year,” said Qi Xiaoliang, a Beijing-based steel trader.

“There’s still uncertainty in the real estate market for 2022 and the situation is not expected to be fully reversed for another six to 12 months,” he added.

In the final quarter of 2021, the property market took a further hit as the unease in the sector shook already weak buyer sentiment, with unsold housing stock in China’s 100 biggest cities reaching a five-year high in November.

Demand for homes is expected to ease further in 2022, hitting downstream manufacturers of household products.

Cement production, another construction material, was down around 16% for September-November year-on-year, and was lower versus the same period between 2017 and 2019. Demand for earth excavators has also dropped off in recent months.

The broadening spillover impact of the property downturn was also seen elsewhere. In the appliances industry, for example, monthly refrigerator output has been falling since May through to November on an annual basis.

Reversal in fortunes

Steel producers were among the best performers of the entire Chinese economy over the first three quarters of 2021, with China’s 28 major listed mills pocketing over 106 billion yuan ($16.61 billion) in net profits, up 174% year-on-year and 129% higher than in pre-pandemic 2019.

Major Chinese listed steel mills’ profits jumped in the first nine months of 2021.

But the boom times in the steel sector are over. The paralysis that has struck China’s mammoth construction industry is triggering a rare contraction in building activity across the country.

New construction starts by floor area have contracted from a year earlier since July – their longest stretch of declines since 2015. 

Growth in China’s property investment and new construction starts measured by floor area fell in recent months amid developers’ default crisis and government’s controls.

The slowdown in the real estate sector has dented China’s monthly crude steel output by more than 20% since September.

The closely-tracked steel equity instruments and commodities futures have captured the reversal of fortunes.

After gaining roughly 90% through mid-September, the CSI steel equities index has plunged 27% since, while futures prices for construction materials rebar and wire rod have tumbled 24% and 31% respectively from their historical highs to erase almost all their gains this year.

As steel producers hit the brakes, the key inputs used in steelmaking have also taken a shellacking, with Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures down more than 45% from their record in May.

Gross profits for steel rebar have started to trend down from the peak seen in late September.

China’s steel rebar output fell in recent months due to easing property market demand.

Uncertain outlook

Property-related sectors are the single biggest contributor to China’s economy, accounting for 28% of GDP in 2021, down from a recent peak of 35% in 2016.

The GDP share is broken down into a 7% direct contribution from property and a 21% indirect contribution from construction and through sectors along the supply chain such as machinery and equipment, according to Moody’s.

China’s house prices show rare weakness as construction sector debt woes bite

A government industry consultancy forecast China’s steel demand will slip 0.7% in 2022, following an expected 4.7% decline this year.

Looking ahead, any extended credit constraints “could reduce demand for metals used in construction as developers lose the ability to pay for raw materials at high prices,” analysts with Fitch Solutions wrote in a recent note to clients.

If the contraction in construction spending endures, it will then affect the producers of appliances and white goods that constitute a key part of China’s critical manufacturing base.

China seasonal output of steel, cement and key appliances

“Property construction has been the engine of China’s economy for over two decades now,” said Frederic Neumann, Co-Head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC.

“With building activity likely to remain depressed for quite some time, growth will inevitably shift down a gear or two.”

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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