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CIBC’s Benjamin Tal predicts bumpy real estate ride this year

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Benjamin Tal, the Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets Inc., at Commerce Court in Toronto on June 7, 2019.Tijana Martin/The Globe and Mail

The fog of uncertainty that has kept real estate sellers and buyers on the sidelines in recent months will start to clear in 2023, predicts Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets.

With stability in the market, sellers will be encouraged to list in greater numbers, Mr. Tal expects, and some distressed borrowers will add to the supply.

“That lack of listings now is protecting prices from going down farther,” he says.

Pent-up demand from buyers will establish a bottom in prices by the spring, Mr. Tal said in an interview.

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The overall tone of the market will be soft, the economist says, but he stresses that it will not go into free fall. Still, his forecast does not rule out some bumps along the way.

According to Mr. Tal, sales are likely to fall another 10 to 15 per cent in 2023 before rebounding modestly in 2024.

All of Bay Street is watching for the next signal from the Bank of Canada, which has raised its key interest rate from 0.25 per cent at the start of 2022 to 4.25 per cent today as it seeks to rein in inflation.

It’s important that the central bank not overshoot, cautions Mr. Tal, who expects policy-makers to keep the policy rate at its current level, or possibly lift it one more time, to 4.5 per cent.

The economist cautions that some households are feeling the strain of dealing with higher interest rates for a prolonged period, and he does expect some borrowers to run into trouble if they need to renew their mortgage at higher rates this year. The greater pressure on renewals will come in 2024 and 2025, he predicts.

At that time, buyers who were able to obtain a mortgage at 2.5 per cent during the pandemic may be confronting a much higher rate.

“I have little doubt the delinquency rate will rise,” he says.

Mr. Tal has recently noted an uptick in mortgage delinquencies, but he points out that the greatest risk that people can’t make their mortgage payments stems not from interest rates but unemployment.

So far, the job market remains strong, Mr. Tal adds, but he doesn’t rule out an increase in unemployment in 2023.

Rates for mortgages with a five-year fixed term will likely decrease, in his opinion.

Mr. Tal also expects obstinate sellers to become more realistic about the price they will accept when they realize the conditions that led to the February 2022 peak won’t be returning soon.

“The market will not go back to what it was, because what it was, was insane.”

While Mr. Tal is not expecting a meltdown in Canadian real estate, he warns that there are some real risks to the scenario he has laid out, including the unpredictable actions of the Chinese government, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other world leaders.

He also points to uncertainty surrounding the future impact of inflation and COVID-19.

“These things can surprise us,” he says.

Benjamin Tal says the real estate market will not go back to ‘insane’ numbers from last year.Tijana Martin/The Globe and Mail

In Toronto, Patrick Rocca, broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd., has been hearing from some homeowners who are gearing up to list out of the gate in 2023 after a dismal December.

Sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) plunged 48 per cent last month compared with December 2021, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. Active listings swelled 169 per cent in December compared with the same month in the previous year.

The average price in the GTA fell 9.2 per cent to $1,051,216 in December from $1,157,837 in December 2021.

Many of the people Mr. Rocca is talking with put off listing last summer and fall hoping the market would improve. He is currently preparing some listings for late January and early February.

Those who need to sell want to hit the market early in the new season, he says.

Most of the homeowners he is hearing from understand that prices have dropped 20 per cent from their peak in midtown Toronto, he says.

“Some want to sell, but at early 2022 prices,” he says. “It’s a very short conversation.”

Mr. Rocca says homeowners who had properties listed in the fall that failed to sell should come out with a new strategy – and a lower price – in January.

In the Leaside and Davisville neighbourhoods where he does much of his business, a semi-detached house that would have fetched $1.9 million at the peak can now be had for $1.5 million or so, he says.

He stresses that a realistic price and a very polished presentation are going to be crucial for sellers in 2023.

Mr. Rocca believes prices are likely near the bottom, but he is concerned about the possibility that homeowners who have high mortgage debt may be forced to sell.

Even in Toronto’s most established neighbourhoods, where prices tend to be more stable, he knows of people who are fearful about whether they will be able to hold onto their houses.

Distressed selling may bring an increase in listings, but he notes that demand has traditionally outweighed supply, and he expects the market to absorb any rise in inventory.

Broker Davelle Morrison of Bosley says the new year is a time when people tend to ruminate about their focus in life and where they want to be in the coming months.

Often, that includes major life decisions, such as getting engaged or contacting a divorce lawyer.

“There’s a late-December, early-January wake-up call of ‘I need to make a change in my life,’” she says.

She has been hearing from the full spectrum of buyers, including first-time, move-up, and downsizing. Some are people who moved out of the city early in the pandemic and now want to return.

Traffic in the GTA has become monumentally worse in the past couple of years, she points out, and some workers have returned to offices downtown.

“If you’ve got to sit through traffic hell, you may start to wonder, why did I move so far out?”

Still, despite their intentions, buyers are facing higher monthly payments than in the past because the increase in interest rates continues to outweigh the drop in prices.

They also remain hesitant to jump into the market while prices continue to decline, Ms. Morrison says.

“A lot of people want to buy at the very bottom,” she says, adding that she found a house around the $700,000 mark for one young man, but his parents discouraged him from making an offer because they believe prices have farther to fall.

The problem with that strategy is that no one knows when prices have reached their lowest until that milestone is in the past, she points out.

Sellers in the coming weeks will need to set an asking price in line with the current reality, she says.

“If sellers go out with overheated expectations, they will not get showings,” she says. “Buyers have wised up.”

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Former HGTV star slapped with $10 million fine and jail time for real estate fraud – Fortune

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Back when mortgage rates and home prices were more reasonable and manageable, homeowners invested in fixer-upper properties and made them their own. Now these types of projects aren’t as popular. But in the early-to-mid-2010s, HGTV shows including Fixer Upper, Love It or List It, and Flip It to Win It were all the rage as viewers binge-watched dilapidated homes transform into dream properties.

But as it turns out, one former HGTV star’s house-flipping show was masking major real estate fraud. On Tuesday, Charles “Todd” Hill, was sentenced to four years in jail and ordered to pay back nearly $10 million to his victims following his conviction. Los Gatos, Calif.–based Hill, 58, was the star of HGTV show Flip It to Win It, which aired in 2013 and featured Hill and his team purchasing dilapidated homes and fixing them up. Hill then sold them for a profit.

“Some see the huge amount of money in Silicon Valley real estate as a business opportunity,” Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen said in a statement. “Others, unfortunately, see it as a criminal opportunity—and we will hold those people strictly accountable.”

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What did Hill do?

According to the indictment shared with Fortune, the accusations against Hill happened between 2012 and 2014, around the time his show (which lasted just one season) began. The indictment shows 10 counts of grand theft of personal property exceeding $950,000; three counts of embezzlement; and one count of diversion of construction funds. Hill could not be reached by Fortune to comment on the indictment, conviction, or sentencing.

Hill was convicted last year of the multiple fraud schemes, including scams that happened before his show aired. This included a Ponzi scheme with evidence showing that Hill had spent laundered money on a rented apartment in San Francisco, hotels, vacations, and luxury cars, according to a press release from the Santa Clara County District Attorney’s Office. HGTV did not respond to requests for comment from Fortune ahead of publication.

“To hide the theft, he created false balance sheets and got loans using fraudulent information,” according to the district attorney’s office. In another case, Hill diverted construction money for personal use. But one of the strangest accounts came from an investor who had poured $250,000 into a property he wanted Hill to remodel. 

Instead, during a tour of the home, the investor “found it to be a burnt-down shell with no work done on it.”

After the district attorney’s investigation, Hill was indicted in November 2019 and in September 2023 admitted his guilt and was convicted by plea of grand theft against all of his victims. He’ll have to pay restitution of more than $9.4 million and serve 10 years on probation.

Victims who spoke at Tuesday’s hearing said they’re still reeling from the financial and professional damages from the fraud, according to the district attorney’s office.

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Botched home sale costs Winnipeg man his right to sell real estate in Manitoba – CBC.ca

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A Winnipeg man’s registration as a real estate salesman has been cancelled after a family vacated their home on a tight deadline for a sale that never went through, then changed brokerages and, months later, got $60,000 less for their house than what they expected when they moved out.

A Manitoba Securities Commission panel found Reginald Wayne Kehler engaged in professional misconduct and conduct unbecoming a registrant when he signed a document on behalf of sellers without their knowledge, reduced the listing price of a home without their approval, and didn’t tell them for nearly a month that a potential buyer hadn’t paid a promised $100,000 deposit.

The sellers, identified as D.R. and P.R. in the panel decision released Wednesday, were awarded $10,394 from the real estate reimbursement fund. Kehler was ordered to pay $12,075 to cover costs of the investigation and hearing.

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The sellers were a military family who had to move in 2020 after the husband was posted to Ottawa.

They chose Kehler as their listing agent, because he had helped them find the home when they moved to Winnipeg in 2018, and they had a good relationship with him, the panel’s decision says.

They  listed their house in May and on June 15, 2020, accepted an offer of $570,000 with possession on July 15. A deposit of $100,000 was to be paid within 72 hours of acceptance of the offer.

Kehler was the salesperson for both the buyer and the sellers — but the sellers say he never told them that.

A form that indicated the sellers knew he was also representing the buyer, dated June 15, 2020, was filed.

While it appeared to be signed with the sellers’ names, they said they didn’t see it until March 2021. One of the two wasn’t even in Winnipeg on June 15.

“Kehler, in his interview with commission staff, acknowledges that the sellers never signed this document — we note that the purported signatures on the form look nothing like the actual signatures of the sellers on other documents,” the decision says.

Kehler told commission staff he’d been authorized to sign on the sellers’ behalf, which they denied. The panel found them more believable.

Once the deal was made, the sellers, believing they had just a month before the buyer would take possession of their home, quickly packed up and prepared to move with their two young children.

Buyer never made deposit

Meanwhile, the buyer hadn’t made the $100,000 deposit before the deadline — but Kehler didn’t tell the sellers.

Kehler told commission staff that was because he thought the deposit was still coming, and he didn’t want to cause more stress for the sellers.

On July 10, just five days before the buyer was to take possession and the day before the family was leaving Winnipeg, the sellers spoke to Kehler — but he still didn’t tell them the deposit hadn’t been paid.

Kehler “said everything was fine,” according to the decision.

It wasn’t until the evening of July 13, when the family arrived in Toronto on their way to Ottawa and just 36 hours before the scheduled closing, that Kehler told them he’d never received the deposit.

Eventually, they received $4,000 of the deposit, but the sale of the house never closed. The sellers scrambled to extend the insurance on their old home and make sure they continued to pay the utility bills, the decision says.

Home relisted

Kehler then recommended they relist the home, and it went back on the market at $574,900.

On Aug. 10, 2020, Kehler recommended the price be reduced to $569,900. Instead, the seller said he should reduce the price to $567,900.

But when the seller looked at the online listing on Aug. 22, it was listed at $564,900.

The sellers also asked Kehler about maintaining the property, since they were no longer in Winnipeg. He agreed he would, but friends ended up going and mowing the lawn, the decision says.

The sellers asked Kehler and his brokerage about what could be done to “make things right,” the decision says, but they never received any responses.

On Sept. 5, they hired a new brokerage to sell the home. Under the new real estate salesman, they accepted an offer on Dec. 13, and closed the deal Jan. 2, 2021, receiving $507,500 for the home.

Kehler’s actions were “contrary to the best interests of the public” and undermined “public confidence in the real estate industry,” the decision says.

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Dr. Phil left speechless after real estate agent claims that squatting is justified by colonization – New York Post

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Dr. Phil spoke with property owners about how squatters are using legal loopholes to occupy properties, but one real estate agent argued it can be justified because of a history of “colonization.”

Wednesday’s episode of “Dr. Phil Primetime” featured one guest named Kristine, a real estate agent who “doesn’t think adverse possession is immoral,” but believes that “people with no housing dying from the elements is immoral.” According to the Legal Information Institute, adverse possession is where a “person in possession of land owned by someone else may acquire valid title to it, so long as certain requirements are met, and the adverse possessor is in possession for a sufficient period of time.” The requirements and period of time vary by state and city.

In her introduction on the show, Kristine argued that there are “multi-million dollar projects, and they’re just abandoned.” She added that she believes the land of those abandoned projects can be reclaimed.

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She also noted she is working with a client who is “trying to occupy a property” that’s around 300 or 500 acres.

“It’s something that’s so large that you wouldn’t even notice what 2 acres is compared to how many acres are on there,” she said. “Adverse possession is a law that’s left over from both Spanish and English colonization, it is how they took the land from the native people, and it’s a process we can use to take that land back.”


Dr. Phil
Dr. Phil’s guest explained that adverse possession is a law that’s left over from colonization. Youtube/Merit Street Media

“You said that if I’ve got 100 acres or 1,000 acres and somebody goes and gets in a corner of it and adversely possesses 5 acres of it, I’m not gonna miss it, I’ve got 1,000 acres anyway?” Dr. Phil asked Kristine.

“Well, yeah,” she responded. “Can you tell me, if you’re looking at 1,000 acres, could you tell me what 5 acres was?”

Dr. Phil’s jaw dropped, and he said, “Hell yes.”


Real estate agent Kristine
The real estate agent asked Dr. Phil he could pick 5 acres out of 1000. Youtube/Merit Street Media

A landlord named Tony argued with Kristine about how she believes the manner in which people inherit property should be taken into account when it comes to adverse possession.

“We’re not in 1776, we’re in 2024,” Tony said, sparking a wave of applause from the audience.

“Do you think that a corporation that makes over a billion dollars a year is injured by someone taking 5 acres of land?,” Kristine argued.

Another guest quickly interjected with “somebody is.”

Another guest named Patti confronted Kristine by arguing she does not use her car 24-hours-a-day.

“Playing out your scenario, then theoretically anyone on the street should be able to boost your car and drive it, because that car is just sitting around unused,” Patti said, sparking applause from the audience.

“I don’t have a billion-dollar net worth,” Kristine argued, which made Barry ask if having a billion dollars is where Kristine draws the line.

Dr. Phil concluded the episode by commending Kristine for her willingness to defend her beliefs, but said he “100%” disagreed with her.

“It is a lawful thing to do if you do it in the right way, I 100% disagree with your philosophy, but your facts are correct,” he said. “She’s not suggesting people go squat in someone’s home when they go on vacation, she’s talking about something completely different, at another level, and if you’re not a billionaire, she isn’t targeting you.”

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