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CMHC says new home construction jumped 14% in February from previous month

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The pace of new home construction climbed 14 per cent in February compared to the previous month, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Friday, but the industry continues to struggle under cost pressures.

The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home construction — also known as housing starts — amounted to 253,468 units in February, compared with 223,176 in January.

That was higher than the 230,000 units economists were expecting.

When looking at year-over-year figures, February’s housing starts were up 11 per cent, with the increase driven entirely by higher multi-unit starts (e.g. apartments and condos) that increased 16 per cent, while single-detached starts were down 14 per cent.

“As the national housing shortage continues, the focus for developers continues to shift towards multi-unit construction in Canada’s major centres,” said CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan in a news release.

Month-to-month starts can fluctuate significantly as the launch of larger multi-unit developments can skew numbers. Adjusted starts in February were up 79 per cent in Vancouver and down 31 per cent in Montreal.

To smooth out those swings and give a clearer picture of the upcoming housing supply trend, CMHC also reports a six-month moving average of the adjusted rate. In February, the indicator showed starts at 245,665, up by 0.4 per cent from January.

A construction worker walks through a building site.
A construction worker is shown at a building site in Ajax, Ont., on Nov., 30, 2023. The increased rate of housing starts in February is likely due to the unusually mild winter weather, according to economist Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics. (Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press)

Bounce-back expected, weather could be partly behind increase

“A bounce-back in starts was anticipated in February after January’s decline. However, they continue to trend at a solid level, supported by rising construction of purpose-built rental units and elevated home prices,” wrote TD economist Rishi Sondhi in a note.

Housing starts in the first two months of the first quarter are below their fourth-quarter level and expected to go lower, Sondhi added, “suggesting some potential downward pressure on residential investment growth in the first quarter.”

TD Bank thinks that housing start figures will continue to decline as past weakness in home sales translates to fewer homes built, Sondhi said.

Some of the increase is likely due to the unusually mild winter weather that we’ve seen this year, according to economist Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics.

The weather might also be driving activity in the resale market, she wrote, “along with optimism for [Bank of Canada] rate cuts later this year.”

Economists are expecting the Bank of Canada will move on an interest rate cut in June, which could mean that sidelined homebuyers rush back into the market.

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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