How often have we heard over the past few years that Canada could not afford to harm its growing trade relationship with China because the country would miss out on its share of the biggest economic bonanza of the 21st century?
Seduced by potential lucre at the end of this rainbow, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has zealously pursued trade with Beijing. The prime minister appointed two ambassadors, John McCallum and Dominic Barton, who were as ardent admirers of China as he and Liberal grandees such as Jean Chretien and John Manley.
As just about every Canadian knows, that intention has been ill-starred since Huawei heiress Meng Wanzhou was detained in Vancouver 19 months ago where she has become a reluctant participant in extradition proceedings that will decide whether she should face serious fraud charges in the U.S. and China responded by kidnapping Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Relations between the two countries are now at their lowest ebb by far since Pierre Trudeau established diplomatic relations with China half a century ago this October with no hint that they might get better any time soon.
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For reasons known only to themselves, while most of the developed world began distancing itself from China a couple of years ago, Prime Minister Trudeau and Ambassador Barton seem to have remained convinced that things with China would still work out somehow. Or they thought so until a few months ago. Since then they’ve been rather quiet about the future of Ottawa’s moribund relationship with Beijing.
With Canada’s China policy effectively a dead letter, what’s next?
For starters, there will still be some trade (mostly raw resources and agricultural products) with China. It will not be anything like the many hundreds of billions of dollars a year in potential spoils that once dazzled the Canadian government and many Canadian business leaders, but it is still likely to be substantial.
8:40 Canada needs support from the U.S. in order to free the two Michaels
When assessing the economic fallout from the Meng/Two Michaels confusion, a more global perspective is required. Canada is hardly the only developed country whose trade and diplomatic ties with China have become frayed. The U.S., Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom and a few of the most important players in the European Union are equally ill-disposed towards President Xi Jinping’s dictatorship today.
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It is also a fact that despite all the noise about China being the golden egg, only 12.4 per cent of its imports and 3.9 per cent of its exports went to and came from China. Those are impressive numbers, to be sure, but they are not so large as to be economy killers.
Seldom discussed is that Canada did more than seven and a half times more trade with the U.S. than China last year and 30 per cent more trade with the European Union. Even Canada’s trade with Mexico was a surprisingly robust 50 per cent of what it was with China.
As for areas of potential growth, senior officials from Japan, India and Vietnam, which all have territorial disputes and complicated relationships with China, have emphatically told me over the past year that they wish to greatly grow their countries’ trade relations with Canada and have been baffled by Ottawa’s lack of interest. As it is, taken together, these three countries do about half as much trade with Canada today as China does.
Similarly, there is room for lots of growth in trade with Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand.
Canada must look beyond Asia for new opportunities and as part of western efforts to prevent China from dominating many distant markets. There should, for example, be more trade with Latin America, where Chinese business interests have been super busy.
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Ottawa should encourage Canadian banks to return to the crucial role they played in the Caribbean until a few years ago. With Canada largely absent, China has filled the vacuum there, building airports and cricket grounds.
2:33 Coronavirus: Trump says he holds China responsible for ‘unleashing’ COVID-19
Coronavirus: Trump says he holds China responsible for ‘unleashing’ COVID-19
During several fairly recent visits to Africa, I got an earful in the streets and the countryside about China’s big and growing business presence and the boorish behaviour of many of the Chinese working on infrastructure projects that they’ve met there. There is also anger and exasperation with their own political leaders for having become so friendly with Beijing’s bankers and leaders and for having sold them large tracts of farmland.
Canada does not have the resources to change much in Africa. But targeted opportunities and development in conjunction with close allies could pay dividends.
To give actual meaning to the slogan, “Canada’s back,” the Trudeau government should for the first time assume a major global leadership role by pressing the U.S. hard to join the 11 country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Achieving this will be a very tough sell as long as President Donald Trump resides on Pennsylvania Avenue, but there is a growing likelihood that Democrat Joe Biden will unseat the incumbent in November’s election.
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Democrats tend to be protectionist, but they are as strongly opposed to China’s ambitions in Asia and elsewhere as Trump is. It is also a given that if the Democrats control the presidency, the Senate and the Congress, they will be keen to repair the wreckage that Trump has created in American relations with most of its allies and potential allies.
As the Tories have repeatedly demanded, Canada should immediately quit the Beijing-based Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. As Canadian diplomats told the government earlier this year, the AIIB burnishes China’s reputation, though not Canada’s, and spreads China’s influence and authoritarian political model across the developing world. Being part of the AIIB has turned out to be a cock-eyed way of spending about $360 million.
Withdrawing from the AIIB might make it easier to convince American legislators to join the four-year-old TPP and reinvigorate the much older, Japanese-led Asian Development Bank, of which Canada and the U.S. are both members.
Putting all these parts together could make up for what has been lost as relations with China have soured badly. However, to get there from here will require a new mindset in Ottawa and far more complex, trenchant and original strategic thinking than Global Affairs Canada and Canadian trade officials have yet demonstrated.
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If well-executed, such a reboot could make up for most or all of the trade with China that Canada is likely to lose out on. Such a scheme would make Canada stronger, too, because it would end up with a much broader web of trading partners and strategic alliances, especially in the Indo-Pacific.
As important, it would restore some of the self-respect and lustre that Canada lost when it decided to invest so much time and political capital in its misbegotten effort to be China’s best pal.
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Matthew Fisher is an international affairs columnist and foreign correspondent who has worked abroad for 35 years. You can follow him on Twitter at @mfisheroverseas
TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?
It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.
Hundreds of thousands of Swifties are expected to descend on downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.
And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars, it could further clog the city’s already gridlocked streets.
Swift’s shows collide with other scheduled events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Toronto Raptors game on Friday and a Toronto Maple Leafs game on Saturday.
Some locals have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area.
Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals, until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.
“Ultimately, everybody agreed they just didn’t want to deal with that,” he said.
“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window.”
Dayani says the group rescheduled the birthday party for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.
“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.
“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”
Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, has suggested his employees stay away from the company’s downtown offices on concert days, since he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.
“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” he said.
“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”
Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been preparing for over a year to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.
Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to the transit routes around the stadium, while the TTC has consulted with the city on how to handle potential emergency scenarios.
“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.
“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – Electronic Arts has incorporated the Professional Women’s Hockey League into its NHL 25 video game.
The six teams starting their second seasons Nov. 30 will be represented in “play now,” “online versus,” “shootout” and “season” modes, plus a championship Walter Cup, in the updated game scheduled for release Dec. 5, the PWHL and EA Sports announced Wednesday.
Gamers can create a virtual PWHL player.
The league and video game company have agreed to a multi-year partnership, the PWHL stated.
“Our partnership with EA SPORTS opens new doors to elevate women’s hockey across all levels,” said PWHL operations senior vice-president Amy Scheer in a statement.
“Through this alliance, we’ll develop in-game and out-of-game experiences that strengthen the bond between our teams, players, and fans, bringing the PWHL closer to the global hockey community.”
NHL 22 featured playable women’s teams for the first time through an agreement with the International Ice Hockey Federation.
Toronto Sceptres forward Sarah Nurse became the first woman to appear on the video game’s cover in 2023 alongside Anaheim Ducks centre Trevor Zegras.
The Ottawa Charge, Montreal Victoire, Boston Fleet, Minnesota Frost and New York Sirens round out the PWHL. The league announced team names and logos in September, and unveiled jerseys earlier this month.
“It is so meaningful that young girls will be able to see themselves in the game,” said Frost forward Taylor Heise, who grew up playing EA’s NHL games.
“It is a big milestone for inclusivity within the hockey community and shows that women’s prominence in hockey only continues to grow.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. continued to navigate weaker consumer demand in the third quarter as it looked ahead to the spinoff of its pork business in 2025.
“This environment has a particularly significant impact on a premium portfolio like ours and I want you to know that we are not sitting still waiting for the macro environment to recover on its own,” said CEO Curtis Frank on a call with analysts.
Frank said the company is working to adapt its strategies to consumer demand. As inflation has stabilized and interest rates decline, he said pressure on consumers is expected to ease.
Maple Leaf reported a third-quarter profit of $17.7 million compared with a loss of $4.3 million in the same quarter last year.
The company says the profit amounted to 14 cents per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a loss of four cents per share a year earlier. Sales for the quarter totalled $1.26 billion, up from $1.24 billion a year ago.
“At a strategic level … we’re certainly seeing the transitory impacts of an inflation-stressed consumer environment play through our business,” Frank said.
“We are seeing more trade-down than we would like. And we are making more investments to grow our volume and protect our market share than we would like in the moment. But again, we believe that those impacts will prove to be transitory as they have been over the course of history.”
Financial results are improving in the segment as feed costs have stabilized, said Dennis Organ, president, pork complex.
Maple Leaf, which is working to spin off its pork business into a new, publicly traded company to be called Canada Packers Inc. and led by Organ, also said it has identified a way to implement the plan through a tax-free “butterfly reorganization.”
Frank said Wednesday that the new structure will see Maple Leaf retain slightly lower ownership than previously intended.
The company said it continues to expect to complete the transaction next year. However, the spinoff under the new structure is subject to an advance tax ruling from the Canada Revenue Agency and will take longer than first anticipated.
Maple Leaf announced the spinoff in July with a plan to become a more focused consumer packaged goods company, including its Maple Leaf and Schneiders brands.
“The prospect of executing the transaction as a tax-free spin-off is a positive development as we continue to advance our strategy to unlock value and unleash the potential of these two unique and distinct businesses,” Frank said in the news release.
He also said that Maple Leaf is set on delivering profitability for its plant protein business in mid-2025.
“This includes the recent completion of a procurement project aimed at leveraging our purchasing scale,” he said.
On an adjusted basis, Maple Leaf says it earned 18 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 13 cents per share in the same quarter last year.
The results were largely in line with expectations, said RBC analyst Irene Nattel in a note.
Maple Leaf shares were down 4.5 per cent in midday trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange at $21.49.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
