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Commercial Real Estate Investment Drops 27% Across The GTA

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Amid high interest rates and rising construction costs, real estate investors shied away from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in the first half of 2023.

According to Altus Group’s GTA Q2 2023 Market Report, commercial investment activity declined 27% year over year in the second quarter, with transaction volume dropping to $6.68B compared to $9.21B in Q2 2022.


Given the high interest rate environment and looming recession, it’s “not surprising” that investors have paused, Raymond Wong, Vice President of Data Solutions Delivery at Altus, told STOREYS.

Following the frenzy of activity seen throughout 2021 and 2022, there exists a discrepancy between the price sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay, Wong said, which has weighed further on investment activity.

“There are still definitely investors who want to purchase assets in the GTA, but at the right price,” he said.

Chart of GTA property transactions, all sectors by yearGTA property transactions, all sectors by year. (Altus Group)

The only sector to experience growth on an annual basis was industrial, which reported $3.39B in dollar volume in Q2 2023, a 36% increase from Q2 2022. However, the uncertain economic climate has led investors to take a more cautious approach. As such, the availability rate jumped from 1.3% to 2.3% on an annual basis in Q2 2023.

Approximately 3 million sq. ft of new industrial supply came to market in Q2, but, unlike quarters past, a significant portion has not been pre-leased. Despite the apparently dwindling demand, new supply under construction rose from 17.3M million sq. ft In Q1 to 18.7 million sq. ft In Q2.

“Canada is still undersupplied on the industrial side,” Wong said. “There is just not enough supply to keep up with demand.”

While investors remained relatively confident in the industrial sector, faith in the residential component faltered. Investment transactions in the sector fell to $563M in Q2, an annual decline of 44%.

The report notes that a gradual decline in transaction volume began in Q3 2022, as as interest rates and construction costs rose alongside a worsening shortage in the skilled trades.

The most significant pullback in activity occurred in the office component, though, with investment transactions falling from $1.07B in Q2 2022 to $414M in Q2 2023 — a 61% decline.

The return to office has stalled across Canada, leading the national office availability rate to climb to 18% in Q2; in the GTA, it stood at 18.5%. Sublet space represented 24.9% of the total available office space in Q2, a 4% annual increase.

“AA office space is doing well. It’s the B and C Class space that’s struggling, because there’s more demand for better class buildings,” Wong said.

“Some of those [B and C class] buildings could be at the end of their lifecycle and could be ready for conversion, perhaps to a data centre or life science centre. We’re going to see office space and how we use it evolve over time.”

Graph of GTA property transactions by asset class YTD (Q2 2022 vs. Q2 2023)GTA property transactions by asset class YTD, Q2 2022 vs. Q2 2023 (Altus Group)

Wong expects the slowdown in activity seen throughout the first half of 2023 will persist for the remainder of the year, as investors grapple with high interest rates, a growing bid-ask price gap, and the threat of a recession.

“Activity will definitely be down this year compared to last year,” Wong said. “But 2021 and 2022 were very strong years. So, we may just be going back into a level of normalcy for investment activity in the GTA.”

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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