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‘Commercial Real Estate Is Melting Down Fast’: Elon Musk Warns Home Prices Will Be The Next To Crash — Yet One Property Type Could Prove Resilient

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As a serial entrepreneur who co-founded Tesla Inc., revolutionized the electric car industry and is sending rockets into space, Elon Musk isn’t known for being a real estate guru. But lately, the billionaire has been sounding the alarm for the sector.

“Commercial real estate is melting down fast,” Musk said in a recent tweet. “Home values next.”

He elaborated on the dire forecast during an interview with former Fox News personality Tucker Carlson in April.

“We really haven’t seen the commercial real estate shoe drop. That’s more like an anvil, not a shoe,” Musk said. “So the stuff we’ve seen thus far actually hasn’t even — it’s only slightly real estate portfolio degradation. But that will become a very serious thing later this year, in my view.”

The Tesla CEO pointed out that the work-from-home trend has substantially reduced the use of office buildings around the world. And that does not bode well for commercial real estate.

“Almost all cities at this point have record vacancies of commercial real estate,” Musk said.

But not all commercial real estate is created equal. Here’s one type of property that could be more shockproof than others.

Don’t miss:

Medical Office Buildings

According to the latest Office National Report from commercial real estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap, medical offices face “fewer headwinds” because of the nature of their practice.

“While most medical office tenants have incorporated some degree of virtual work, hybrid interactions supplement in-person visits rather than replace,” the report said.

In other words, while the remote work trend has transformed the office property landscape, medical office buildings continue to serve a vital purpose because of the need for in-person visits.

Another compelling factor contributing to the resilience of medical offices is America’s aging population. Approximately 10,000 baby boomers reach age 65 in the U.S. every day, and the demand for medical services tends to increase as people grow older.

The report said that this demographic trend could be a backstop for long-term space demand.

To see how resilient medical office buildings are, look at Riverside-San Bernardino. The report highlighted that this region is expected to “maintain the lowest traditional office vacancy rate among major U.S. markets in 2023,” attributed in part to the presence of “strong medical office fundamentals.”

“Medical office vacancy here was at 6.8% in March,” the report said.

Getting A Piece Of The Action

Medical office buildings can be a significant investment, often requiring substantial capital to acquire. The good news? You don’t necessarily have to purchase an entire building. Nowadays, there are multiple avenues for investors to participate.

For instance, some publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) own medical office properties. Investors can gain exposure to the segment by purchasing shares of these REITs.

Here’s a look at two that Wall Street finds particularly attractive.

Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: HR): Healthcare Realty Trust is a REIT that specializes in medical office buildings and outpatient facilities. The company’s portfolio consists of 715 properties in 35 states totaling approximately 41.8 million square feet.

Notably, 72% of the properties are on or adjacent to hospital campuses. The REIT pays quarterly dividends of 31 cents per share, translating to an annual yield of 6.7%. Barclays analyst Steve Valiquette has an Overweight rating on Healthcare Realty Trust and a price target of $25, implying a potential upside of 34%.

Ventas Inc. (NYSE: VTR): Ventas is a healthcare REIT with a broader focus. With more than 1,200 properties in the U.S., Canada and the U.K., the company’s portfolio spans senior living communities, medical offices and outpatient facilities and hospitals as well as life science, research and innovation properties. The stock offers an annual dividend yield of 4.1%. Mizuho analyst Vikram Malhotra has a Buy rating on Ventas and a price target of $53. Since shares trade at $43.70 today, the price target implies a potential upside of 21%.

Income investors are drawn to REITs because they are some of the higher-yielding names in the stock market. But remember, publicly traded REITs — including those that focus on medical properties — are still subject to the stock market’s ups and downs. If you don’t like the volatility associated with publicly traded REITs, note that there are also private market options that allow retail investors to add medical office buildings to their portfolios.

Looking for a way to boost returns? Benzinga’s Real Estate Offering Screener has the latest private market investments with offerings available for both accredited and non-accredited investors.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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