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Commercial real estate won’t be a distressed asset: Marcus & Millichap CEO – Yahoo Canada Finance

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<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The novel coronavirus pandemic forced offices and retailers to shift operations online over the past three months — leading some to speculate that demand for commercial real estate will drop, sending prices plummeting.” data-reactid=”16″>The novel coronavirus pandemic forced offices and retailers to shift operations online over the past three months — leading some to speculate that demand for commercial real estate will drop, sending prices plummeting.

But most commercial properties will not be selling for massive discounts, according to Hessam Nadji, CEO of Marcus & Millichap, a California-based national commercial real estate brokerage.

“There’s a broad brush sentiment that commercial real estate is going to get distressed pricing across the board and that is just not the case,” Nadji told Yahoo Finance. Apartments and warehouses, in particular, are performing “very well.” 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="As Americans shelter in place, demand for apartments and condos have remained stable. Some 41.4% of investors reported multifamily acquisitions in their market in May compared to 33.6% in April, according to a monthly survey of almost 500 members in the NAIOP (National Association of Industrial and Office Properties) Commercial Real Estate Development Association conducted May 18-20.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”19″>As Americans shelter in place, demand for apartments and condos have remained stable. Some 41.4% of investors reported multifamily acquisitions in their market in May compared to 33.6% in April, according to a monthly survey of almost 500 members in the NAIOP (National Association of Industrial and Office Properties) Commercial Real Estate Development Association conducted May 18-20. 

And a surge in online shopping during the pandemic has upped warehouse demand for last-mile delivery. Warehouse acquisitions increased to 58.7% in May from 54% in April, according to the NAIOP.

Commercial real estate has a history of resilience, said Nadji. The commercial market suffered for 18-24 months after September 11, 2001, as employers feared bringing employees into central business locations. But within a few years, office leasing behavior returned to normal, said Nadji, who expects the same resilience within two to three years, depending on the degree of economic growth.

Workstations in empty office
Workstations in empty office

“We’ve seen from many companies, including IBM, that experimented heavily with telecommuting, that they eventually want to bring people back at least a few times a week to work in groups and be in person and have collaborative functions that bring people together in office locations,” said Nadji.

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Hospitality and retail underperform” data-reactid=”34″>Hospitality and retail underperform

But properties that house hospitality or retail are a “whole different story,”  he said, and could offer some “opportunistic investment situations.” Led by a few of these underperforming asset classes, commercial real estate properties had a 2.29% delinquency rate on mortgage loans in April, up from 2.07% March — its largest jump in three years, according to New York-based Trepp Research’s CMBS Delinquency Rate, which measures mortgage ayments that are late for more than 30 days. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="With the country under lockdown, traveling virtually ceased during the pandemic. Hotel demand was down 42% in April compared to last year, prompting some 2.71% of hotels and motels to default on their loans in April, compared to only 1.53% in March. Commercial real estate suffered its highest jump in delinquencies in three years, but lodging had the highest uptick of all property types, according to Trepp Research.” data-reactid=”36″>With the country under lockdown, traveling virtually ceased during the pandemic. Hotel demand was down 42% in April compared to last year, prompting some 2.71% of hotels and motels to default on their loans in April, compared to only 1.53% in March. Commercial real estate suffered its highest jump in delinquencies in three years, but lodging had the highest uptick of all property types, according to Trepp Research.

The cities where commercial real estate will take the biggest hit are service-based hospitality economies, including Atlantic City, N.J., Myrtle Beach, S.C., Las Vegas, Nev., Fort Walton Beach, Fla. and Wilmington, N.C., according to MillionAcres, a real estate investing branch of the Motley Fool, an investing advice company based in Alexandria, Va. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="With less investor demand for retail space, opportunistic investors could also find deals on vacant storefronts. Some 13.4% of NAIOP members said they had witnessed retail deal activity in May, unchanged from activity in April but significantly down from before the pandemic, according to the NAIOP. Notably, retail spaces with grocery stores are proving resilient, according to CrowdStreet, a Portland, Ore.-based investing platform.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”38″>With less investor demand for retail space, opportunistic investors could also find deals on vacant storefronts. Some 13.4% of NAIOP members said they had witnessed retail deal activity in May, unchanged from activity in April but significantly down from before the pandemic, according to the NAIOP. Notably, retail spaces with grocery stores are proving resilient, according to CrowdStreet, a Portland, Ore.-based investing platform. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="While there will also be a short-term reduction in interest in city-based offices, suburban satellite offices may become more popular, said Nadji. Long-term, experts expect the office to remain an attractive investment.” data-reactid=”39″>While there will also be a short-term reduction in interest in city-based offices, suburban satellite offices may become more popular, said Nadji. Long-term, experts expect the office to remain an attractive investment.

“Those kinds of things [a shift toward decentralized locations], I think, will last, and will have a residual effect, but the demise of office space used as kind of a broad statement, I think, is over-exaggerated,” said Nadji.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Sarah Paynter is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter&nbsp;@sarahapaynter” data-reactid=”45″>Sarah Paynter is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @sarahapaynter

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance” data-reactid=”46″>Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Follow Yahoo Finance on&nbsp;Twitter,&nbsp;Facebook,&nbsp;Instagram,&nbsp;Flipboard,&nbsp;SmartNews,&nbsp;LinkedIn,&nbsp;YouTube, and&nbsp;reddit.” data-reactid=”47″>Follow Yahoo Finance on TwitterFacebookInstagramFlipboardSmartNewsLinkedInYouTube, and reddit.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="More from Sarah:” data-reactid=”48″>More from Sarah:

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The office apocalypse is not here, yet” data-reactid=”49″>The office apocalypse is not here, yet

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="People are still paying rent during the coronavirus pandemic” data-reactid=”50″>People are still paying rent during the coronavirus pandemic

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Bidding wars start to heat up in some states as coronavirus lockdown eases” data-reactid=”51″>Bidding wars start to heat up in some states as coronavirus lockdown eases

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WE Charity lays off staff, looks to sell Toronto real estate in wake of scandal – National Post

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Article content continued

“We have a very hard-working and dedicated team in North America and the U.K. and over 100 staff leading our international development work overseas. We are grateful and thankful for the contribution they have made around the world.”

These changes come after months of intense public scrutiny of WE Charity, its affiliated for-profit organization, ME to WE, as well as the family ties between the WE organization and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau.

The federal ethics commissioner is investigating whether Trudeau and Morneau violated the Conflict of Interest Act over the Liberal government’s decision to hand the administration of the Canada Student Services Grant program to WE Charity.

Both the prime minister and finance minister have apologized for failing to recuse themselves when cabinet approved the recommended agreement.

Last month, WE Charity voluntarily suspended all of its Canadian corporate and school board partnerships after many announced they were cutting ties with the organization.

The charity has also cancelled all “WE Day” activities for the foreseeable future and is shifting its WE Schools learning programs to a digital-only format.

Al-Waheidi said the resulting hit to the charity’s financials, coupled with the effects of the pandemic, has prompted a need for a new and “refocused” vision.

The changes and staffing reductions mean office space for the organization will also need to be reduced, she said.

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Brookfield Asset Management reports Q2 loss as real estate portfolio revalued – Times Colonist

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TORONTO — Brookfield Asset Management Inc. has assembled a huge pile of cash and funding commitments from its partners to take advantage of huge opportunities that will arise for it as a result of the COVID crisis, executives said Thursday

Chief executive Bruce Flatt told analysts Thursday that Brookfield currently has US$77 billion available to deploy as opportunities arise over the next 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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“The most important is that many countries around the world will have to off-load spending onto the private sector and sell assets,” Flatt said.

He said that bodes well for Brookfield’s infrastructure and renewable businesses, which make money from buying, selling and managing those types of assets for institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds and pensions.

In addition, Flatt said Brookfield will be able to provide the private sector with capital that will be needed as governments around the world wind down pandemic programs.

Brookfield has several ways to fill that need, he said, including US$12 billion of commitments to a fund for buying discounted debt issued by financially distressed businesses.

Its flagship funds for property, infrastructure, renewable and private equity investments will also be in position to be buyers or sellers depending on the conditions, he added.

Brookfield said its infrastructure and renewable energy businesses are positioned to take advantage of two merging trends in communications and solar technology.

Bahir Manios, managing partner of the Brookfield infrastructure group, said “we’re currently witnessing a once in a 100-year investment upgrade cycle” as telecom operators replace old equipment with wireless and fibre networks to meet demand in an increasingly online world.

“Historically, these investments were funded by telecom operators. Given increasing demands on their capital, these operators are now seeking new funding partners,” Manios said.

Brookfield’s data infrastructure business already owns a portfolio of cell towers in six countries and data centres in 14 countries as well as fixed and wireless networks serving more than 2.5 million residential and enterprise customers.

In addition, Manios said, Brookfield sees an opportunity to supply some of the additional energy that will be required by computer data centres over the next decade — estimated at 30 gigagwatts (30 million kilowatts)

“We’re exploring the potential to bundle data centres and renewable power and provide a turnkey green data centre solution,” Manios said.

Earlier, the company reported a US$656 million net loss in its latest quarter, ended June 30, as it revalued its real estate portfolio lower amid the pandemic.

Brookfield holds large interests in several publicly traded partnerships, including a 53 per cent stake in Brookfield Property Partners, which reported last week that it had been significantly affected by closures in its hospitality and retail assets due to the pandemic.

The company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars and has many operations outside Canada, said the loss attributable to shareholders amounted to 43 cents per diluted share.

A year earlier, it had a profit of $399 million or 24 cents per diluted share.

“The good news is that those operating businesses that were impacted are now all recovering, and the balance of the year should be better,” Brookfield said Thursday in a letter to shareholders.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 13, 2020.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BAM.A, TSX:BPY.UN, TSX:BIP.UN, TSX:BEP.UN)

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Many residential real estate what-ifs during pandemic – Real Estate News EXchange

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Matthew Boukall, vice-president of product management, Altus Group Data Solutions. (Courtesy Altus)

Keeping perspective on the Canadian residential real estate market during the COVID-19 pandemic and what to expect for the rest of 2020 was the focus of a recent Altus Group webinar.

“COVID created a 10-month sales year” due to a lack of April and May activity, said Altus Group Data Solutions vice-president of product management Matthew Boukall. “How we’re seeing the market rebound indicates pent-up demand, that was in the market prior to COVID, is coming back where supply exists.”

Factors affecting residential markets during the pandemic have included: closed sales centres and fewer open houses; increased unemployment; mortgage approval challenges, as banks became more cautious; fewer new project launches; consumers obeying stay-at-home messages from government and health authorities; and general COVID-19 and economic uncertainty.

Low housing inventory levels have continued in Eastern Canada.

In Western Canada, slower sales have allowed supply to increase, particularly in Alberta where the economy continues to struggle.

Condominium apartment and land sales

Condominium apartment sales were down 15 per cent from 2019 levels through Q1 and Q2 2020 in Vancouver, despite strong sales through the first two months of the year and increased activity in June.

New condo prices have dropped by three per cent.

While the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) averaged 10 to 15 new condo launches per month in recent springs, that number was down to three during the height of COVID-19 restrictions this year.

After a strong start to 2020, year-to-date sales are now 32 per cent below 2019 levels due to dropoffs in April and May. However, new condo prices have still risen by 12 per cent.

In Montreal, Boukall cited slower sales in 2019 and through early 2020 after incredible growth in condo demand in 2017 and 2018.

Land sale activity and dollar volumes are down across the country, other than Calgary, but Boukall said it’s too soon to say if that’s entirely related to the pandemic.

“Developers are seeing uncertainty and are likely to pull back some of their sales volumes.”

Western Canada market snapshots

Vancouver was feeling the impact of government policies meant to slow rapidly rising house prices prior to COVID-19. While prices have trended lower, they’re still a challenge for many consumers.

Foreign investment activity has been lower and long approval timelines and high development charges have made it challenging to bring new projects to market.

On the upside, COVID-19 restrictions were less severe in Vancouver than in other parts of Canada and sales launches during the pandemic shutdown saw reasonably strong demand.

Improving affordability and new supply should bring buyers back to the market, while incentives have attracted consumers and improved sales.

Edmonton’s challenges include weak demand for multifamily ownership the past two years. Prices may have declined as far as they can go, however, and more supply is shifting to purpose-built rental to satisfy demand.

No new inventory has been brought to the market as pre-sales have been challenging amid existing unsold inventory.

A plus for homebuyers is that Edmonton has the most affordable housing stock among major Canadian cities.

Resale activity has been recovering and demand for family-friendly housing options, such as townhouses, has been strong. Investment in public infrastructure is improving the viability of Edmonton’s downtown.

A larger supply of new homes in Calgary’s suburbs is creating more competition and price pressure, while an increasing supply of new purpose-built rental product may be dissuading condo unit investors.

Townhouse demand has been robust in new greenfield communities in Calgary. Downsizing and empty-nester demand remains strong, and a resale recovery could boost the market this fall.

Sales activity was less impacted by COVID-19 in Calgary than in other cities.

Eastern Canada market snapshots

High development charges, long approval cycles and construction challenges have made it harder for developers to bring projects to the market in the GTA.

Rising prices, particularly in apartment condo product, is making some regions unaffordable.

Historically low resale inventories are pushing buyers into the new home market, particularly downtown. Despite new supply, the rental market remains very tight with continued upward pressure on rents.

Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region, including Kitchener-Waterloo and Hamilton, has less focused demand than in the GTA and new projects generally face a slower sales pace at launch.

Office demand and job growth remains focused in downtown Toronto, which means long commutes for those living in this region as transit infrastructure continues to lag demand.

Resale prices remain comparably affordable and better-supplied in the GGH than in the GTA. Available land for family-friendly townhouse and single-family housing is also in greater supply and more affordable.

Flexible work environments and an increase in working from home could shift the nature of housing demand throughout the GGH.

“In the medium term, those that can work from home may start to shift where they look for housing, certainly if they’re in Toronto or Vancouver,” said Boukall.

Construction delays resulting from COVID-19 restrictions will impact deliveries of new homes in Montreal. Pending government policies targeting housing affordability and a potential foreign buyer tax could impact the market in 2021.

Real estate prices remain much more affordable in Montreal than in Vancouver and Toronto. Resale inventories remain very tight, which could push more consumers to new housing.

The housing market for empty-nesters and downsizers should also remain robust.

Elevated construction activity, particularly for purpose-built rental properties, will deliver a significantly higher number of units in 2021.

Looking to 2021

COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in unemployment, particularly among younger people and those in lower income brackets. That could impact ownership demand, pushing more people to affordable rental product.

Rental investors also face challenges due to layoffs and rising unemployment, small business bankruptcies, declines in household discretionary income and consumer confidence, and more stringent financing conditions.

This could reduce condo sales.

While housing starts are expected to be negatively impacted this year, it’s anticipated they’ll rebound in 2021.

Government support programs may be hiding the true impact of the pandemic on the economy and consumers. Boukall believes the housing market could be negatively affected as these programs end.

Global factors that will have a more significant role in the Canadian housing market over the next two years are: a decreased number of immigrants and international students due to travel restrictions; and uncertain economic growth and demand for exports.

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