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Commodities on edge as tight US election hurts gold, aids oil – BNN

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Gold and copper slumped while oil rose with U.S. equity futures, as tight races in battleground states in the U.S. election raised the prospect of a prolonged wait for the final result.

Most commodities were dragged lower as the dollar rallied, with the unexpected closeness of the race sparking risk aversion across financial markets and spurring a flight to the safety of the greenback.

President Donald Trump has once again defied polls and predictions, with a better-than-expected showing that appeared to significantly shrink Democrat challenger Joe Biden’s path to victory. The incumbent falsely declared early Wednesday he had won re-election and said he would ask the Supreme Court to intervene. Biden didn’t concede defeat and it looked likely that the final result would not be known for some time.

“The only thing we know for a fact is that the uncertainty will linger for a while after Trump’s premature announcement and Supreme Court threat,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “Most assets classes are selling off while bonds and the dollar have rallied.”

The stakes have never been higher in a presidential election as whoever wins will have the monumental task of leading the U.S. in its fight against a virus that’s claimed more than 230,000 lives in the country and decimated the economy. On a global level, the next president will also play an integral role in shaping domestic as well as international efforts against climate change, the use of fossil fuels and the pace of energy transition.

Prices

  • Spot gold fell 0.9 per cent to US$1,892.66 per ounce as of 9:25 a.m. in London
  • West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose 1.5 per cent to US$38.23 a barrel, rebounding after having earlier wiped out a 3.4 per cent gain
  • Brent for January settlement rose 1.5 per cent to US$40.31 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange
  • Copper dropped 1.5 per cent to US$6,712.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange
  • Soybeans fell 0.4 per cent to US$10.5975 cents a bushel
  • Sugar lost 0.3 per cent and coffee was down 0.7 per cent in New York

“Clearly the Blue Wave has not materialized as the polls predicted,” said Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The consequence of a Trump victory could be that the fiscal packages come more quickly, but potentially be of a smaller amount.”

During his presidency, Trump took a hard-line stance against major oil producers Iran and Venezuela by means of crippling sanctions, tightening global supplies. His support for American shale producers helped the nation’s output rise to a record, adding more supplies to the global pool.

A victory by Biden could pave the way for the roll-out of more fiscal stimulus that could lift equity and commodity markets — particularly gold, which benefits from a weaker dollar due to money printing — in the near term. It could also lead to stricter regulation of shale drillers and also signal a detente with Iran, which would unleash millions of barrels a day in fresh crude exports.

Delays to any conclusive result over the next day or so should offer support to the dollar and would pressure prices of commodities, said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Gold, metals and oil — particularly oil and copper — will be sensitive to those dollar movements.”

The futures curve for Brent shows there’s still some concern about a potential glut even after increasing signs the OPEC+ alliance will delay easing output cuts as lockdowns are imposed in Europe and Libyan production rises.

“Under Trump, there’s a bigger chance of oil prices rising,” said Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of industry consultant FGE. “The market has also began to realize that the selloff has been overdone..”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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