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Conservatives take Liberal stronghold in last-minute Toronto byelection victory

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Hours after Canadians went to bed disappointed by a Stanley Cup loss Monday night, the Conservatives scored a stunning byelection upset to win in the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s.

Conservative candidate Don Stewart eked out the win by just 590 votes over Liberal Leslie Church in an early morning upset, yanking away a riding the governing Liberals have held for more than 30 years.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre demanded the prime minister call a snap election after what he described as a “shocking upset” on social media Tuesday morning.

“Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax election now,” Poilievre said on X.

Stewart trailed Church for hours overnight as poll workers slowly counted ballots that were stacked with independent candidates, thanks to a protest group trying to make a point about the first-past-the-post system.

Stewart tried to sound upbeat when he visited his campaign office at around 11:30 p.m., but he didn’t quite succeed as the polls showed his opponent in a steady lead.

“Let’s not give it up,” he said.

Both Stewart and Church had closed up their campaign parties hours before the final results, when it became clear the vote count was going to extend into the early morning hours.

The results flipped just before 4 a.m. when Tories jumped into the lead with just three polls left to be counted.

The results represent a massive victory for Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives, who haven’t won a single seat in Toronto proper since 2011.

Church said she plans to run again as the Liberal candidate in the next general election.

“Yesterday voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s sent us a clear message, that they want us to re-earn their trust,” Church said in a statement posted to X Tuesday morning.

“They want a government that fulfils its promise to be there for them.”

The race was considered a must-win for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the loss is a massive blow that could trigger calls for him to step down after 11 years as Liberal leader.

The crushing defeat for the Liberals is a kick to a party that is already down in the polls. The vote proves the polls reflect reality, said Scott Reid, who worked as the director of communications for former prime minister Paul Martin.

“I don’t think it’s possible to overstate how consequential this byelection loss is,” said Reid, who woke to the news Tuesday morning.

“Its implications could be vast for the government, for the prime minister, for the timing of the next election. I mean, this is a Yahtzee.”

Typically, when Conservatives do well in urban ridings, it’s because the New Democrats have siphoned off support from left-wing voters, said Ginny Roth, a Conservative strategist who served as Poilievre’s director of communications during his leadership race.

That wasn’t true for Monday’s byelection, when the Liberals and Conservatives went head-to-head and the NDP candidate garnered only 11 per cent of the votes.

But if the same holds true for other seats across the country, it could change the strategic dynamics of the next election, Roth said Tuesday.

“It’s a really buoyant, exciting prospect for Conservatives who, I think, now can point to a very broad coalition of support,” she said.

The contest was Stewart’s first election. The financial executive has close ties to the Conservative party as a longtime organizer and a former colleague of Jenni Byrne, an informal Poilievre adviser.

Toronto-St. Paul’s, in the city’s midtown area, includes some of Toronto’s wealthiest addresses as well as an above-average number of renters, and one of the largest concentrations of Jewish voters in the country.

Carolyn Bennett, the former Liberal cabinet minister whose resignation in January triggered this byelection, won the seat nine times for the Liberals, and by more than 20 percentage points every time except once.

But the Liberal campaign was challenged by a cranky electorate that lost patience with Trudeau amid soaring inflation, unaffordable housing and a rise in hate crimes since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.

Conservatives appealed to the riding’s Jewish community during the race, urging them to vote for the Tory candidate to send a message to Trudeau about what they describe as silence in the face of a rise in antisemitism.

This report by The Canadian Press was first publishedJune 25, 2024.

— With files from Mia Rabson and Stephanie Taylor in Ottawa and Sheila Reid in Toronto

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RCMP end latest N.B. search regarding teenage girl who went missing in 2021

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BATHURST, N.B. – RCMP in New Brunswick say a weekend ground search for evidence related to the disappearance of a teenage girl in 2021 didn’t reveal any new information.

In an emailed statement, the RCMP said 20 people participated in the search for evidence in the case of Madison Roy-Boudreau of Bathurst.

The release said the search occurred in the Middle River area, just south of the girl’s hometown.

Police have said the 14-year-old’s disappearance is being treated as a homicide investigation.

The RCMP said the search “did not reveal any new information regarding the circumstances of her disappearance.”

There are no plans for another search until police receive a tip or a lead pointing to a new search area.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Man Tasered after trespassing in Victoria school, forcing lockdown

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VICTORIA – A middle school in Victoria was forced into a lockdown after a man entered the building without permission, and police say they had to use a stun gun to make an arrest.

Victoria police say officers received multiple calls around noon on Monday of an unknown male entering Central Middle School, leading staff to set off emergency procedures that put the building under lockdown.

Police say its emergency response team arrived within minutes and found the suspect, who “appeared to be in a drug-induced state,” in the school’s library.

A statement from police says the suspect resisted arrest, and officers had to use a Taser to subdue the man.

He’s being held by police and has been assessed by emergency medical staff.

Police say the man was not armed and there were no continuing safety concerns for students and staff following the arrest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C. Greens’ ex- leader Weaver thinks minority deal with NDP less likely than in 2017

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VANCOUVER – Former B.C. Green leader Andrew Weaver knows what it’s like to form a minority government with the NDP, but says such a deal to create the province’s next administration is less likely this time than seven years ago.

Weaver struck a power-sharing agreement that resulted in John Horgan’s NDP minority government in 2017, but said in an interview Monday there is now more animosity between the two parties.

Neither the NDP nor the B.C. Conservatives secured a majority in Saturday’s election, raising the prospect of a minority NDP government if Leader David Eby can get the support of two Green legislators.

Manual recounts in two ridings could also play an important role in the outcome, which will not be known for about a week.

Weaver, who is no longer a member of the Greens, endorsed a Conservative candidate in his home riding.

He said Eby would be in a better position to negotiate if Furstenau, who lost her seat, stepped aside as party leader.

“I think Mr. Eby would be able to have fresh discussions with fresh new faces around the table, (after) four years of political sniping … between Sonia and the NDP in the B.C. legislature,” he said.

He said Furstenau’s loss put the two elected Greens in an awkward position because parties “need the leader in the legislature.”

Furstenau could resign as leader or one of the elected Greens could step down and let her run in a byelection in their riding, he said.

“They need to resolve that issue sooner rather than later,” he said.

The Green victories went to Rob Botterell in Saanich North and the Islands and Jeremy Valeriote in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

Neither Botterell nor Valeriote have held seats in the legislature before, Weaver noted.

“It’s not like in 2017 when, you know, I had been in the (legislature) for four years already,” Weaver said, adding that “the learning curve is steep.”

Sanjay Jeram, chair of undergraduate studies in political science at Simon Fraser University, said he doesn’t think it’ll be an “easygoing relationship between (the NDP and Greens) this time around.”

“I don’t know if Eby and Furstenau have the same relationship — or the potential to have the same relationship — as Horgan and Weaver did,” he said. “I think their demands will be a little more strict and it’ll be a little more of a cold alliance than it was in 2017 if they do form an alliance.”

Horgan and Weaver shook hands on a confidence-and-supply agreement before attending a rugby match, where they were spotted sitting together before the deal became public knowledge.

Eby said in his election-night speech that he had already reached out to Furstenau and suggested common “progressive values” between their parties.

Furstenau said in her concession speech that her party was poised to play a “pivotal role” in the legislature.

Botterell said in an election-night interview that he was “totally supportive of Sonia” and he would “do everything I can to support her and the path forward that she chooses to take because that’s her decision.”

The Green Party of Canada issued a news release Monday, congratulating the candidates on their victories, noting Valeriote’s win is the first time that a Green MLA has been elected outside of Vancouver Island.

“Now, like all British Columbians we await the final seat count to know which party will have the best chance to form government. Let’s hope that the Green caucus has a pivotal role,” the release said, echoing Furstenau’s turn of phrase.

The final results of the election won’t be known until at least next week.

Elections BC says manual recounts will be held on Oct. 26 to 28 in two ridings where NDP candidates led B.C. Conservatives by fewer than 100 votes after the initial count ended on Sunday.

The outcomes in Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat could determine who forms government.

The election’s initial results have the NDP elected or leading in 46 ridings, and the B.C. Conservatives in 45, both short of the 47 majority mark in B.C.’s 93-seat legislature.

If the Conservatives win both of the recount ridings and win all other ridings where they lead, Rustad will win with a one-seat majority.

If the NDP holds onto at least one of the ridings where there are recounts, wins the other races it leads, and strikes a deal with the Greens, they would have enough numbers to form a minority government.

But another election could also be on the cards, since the winner will have to nominate a Speaker, reducing the government’s numbers in the legislature by one vote.

Elections BC says it will also be counting about 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots from Oct. 26 to 28.

The NDP went into the election with 55 ridings, representing a comfortable majority in what was then an 87-seat legislature.

Jeram, with Simon Fraser University, said though the counts aren’t finalized, the Conservatives were the big winners in the election.

“They weren’t really a not much of a formal party until not that long ago, and to go from two per cent of the vote to winning 45 or more seats in the B.C. provincial election is just incredible,” he said in an interview Monday.

Jeram said people had expected Eby to call an election after he took over from John Horgan in 2022, and if he had, he doesn’t think there would have been the same result.

He said the B.C. Conservative’s popularity grew as a result of the decision of the BC Liberals to rebrand as BC United and later drop out.

“Had Eby called an election before that really shook out, and maybe especially before (Pierre) Poilievre, kind of really had the wind in his sails and started to grow, I think he could have won the majority for sure.”

He said he wasn’t surprised by the results of the election, saying polls were fairly accurate.

“Ultimately, it really was a result that we saw coming for a while, since the moment that BC United withdrew and put their support behind the conservatives, I think this was the outcome that was expected.”

— With files from Darryl Greer

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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