Uncertainty has powered the incredible roller coaster ride in stock prices these past weeks and the remarkable (as well as historic) drop in bond yields. Don’t expect that to go away anytime soon. But do keep in mind legendary investor Ben Graham’s advice: “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
Translation: During market routs like the one happening now consider adding to your investment portfolio.
Graham’s student, Warren Buffett famously said, “Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases.” Translation: Now might be a good time to put some cash to work or increase your contribution to your 401(k).
My tune will rarely change on this subject. Corrections, even bear markets, create opportunities for patient investors. According to J.P. Morgan’s 2020 Guide to Retirement, from Jan. 3, 2000, to Dec. 31, 2019, $10,000 invested in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index grew to $32,421 for an annualized total return of 6.06%. By simply missing the ten best days, that same $10,000 investment grew by half as much, to $16,180 for an annualized return of 2.44%. Ouch.
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In recent columns, we discussed how to prepare your 401(k) for a downturn and talked about sound investing principles in the face of violent sell-offs. Stock prices may still face selling pressure as the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. rise. So it is still a good time to review a few facts.
What’s really moving the market
• In the near term, no one has any idea what is moving stock prices. If you’ve been glued to the financial news networks you might be struck, as I have been, by how many pundits can tell you with certainty why stocks are trading as they are at any moment. Yet we know that in the short-term stock prices are influenced by computer-driven buy and sell programs and institutional money which moves in and out with lightning speed. Short-term moves then reflect money flows rather than fundamentals.
See beyond the moment
• The underlying fundamentals of a company will eventually matter again. Take tech bellwether Microsoft. The stock peaked on February 10th at $188.70. After warning on February 26th that sales in the PC unit — about 35% of total sales — will come in below expectations, the stock has been hopping around like a lotto ball on Powerball jackpot night. The long-term fundamentals of the company will likely still delight investors for years and when the focus returns to fundamentals the stock price will trade accordingly. Buffett once said: “…when a great company gets into temporary trouble…we want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.“ Consider that as you review your investments this weekend.
Don’t get sucked into the panic
• Human nature never changes. Panic begets panic. The Dutch tulip bulb bubble in the 1600s, one of the most famous bubbles of all time, demonstrates very clearly what rampant speculation wrought. At the height of the mania, rare tulip bulbs traded for multiples of the average person’s annual salary. Remain cool. And rational.
Think about your mix
• Diversification is always smart. I can’t add much on this topic, except to say—you should follow a prudent diversification strategy that aligns with your appetite for risk. Stocks may be down double- digits but bonds are up. That is the point of diversification.
Keep cash to the side
• Keeping your powder dry is for times like these. Cash on the sidelines comes in handy when stocks decline. Consider adding cash to your stock holdings and if your bond holdings have appreciated above your target, trim those back and add to stocks to ensure your allocation reflects your goal. Graham and Buffett would be proud.
Past outbreaks
We still don’t know the full effects of the COVID-19 virus. But we do know that during other recent crises stocks have generated positive returns subsequently.
Dow Jones Market Data records twelve epidemics since 1981 and measures stock returns six and twelve months later. Stocks average double-digit returns in both periods for each epidemic and there were only three negative periods recorded.
Remember that and you will look back a year from now with a larger 401(k) balance and a smile.
Nancy Tengler is chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments and the author of “The Women’s Guide to Successful Investing.”
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
