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Coronavirus: ‘Incomplete’ data for Canada hurts ability to model pandemic, scientists say – Globalnews.ca

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Several scientists say the publicly-available COVID-19 data from Canada’s public health agency is “incomplete” and hurts their ability to build accurate pandemic models and forecasts that can help inform decision-makers.

They argue they need better data “urgently” and Canada as a whole needs a more robust and standardized system for data collection and sharing between the provinces and the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).

“It’s not about whether I get to write a paper with a model in it,” said Caroline Colijn, an infectious disease modeller and mathematics professor at Simon Fraser University.

“It’s about whether we can answer the key questions we need to be able to answer nationally about how do we relax distancing? How do we monitor so we know what’s going on if we did start to relax distancing measures? How can we safely restart our economy?”

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Coronavirus outbreak: Canada now stands at 29,826 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 1,048 deaths


Coronavirus outbreak: Canada now stands at 29,826 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 1,048 deaths

Colijn and Amir Attaran, a professor of both law and public health at the University of Ottawa, are both scientists trying to model the novel coronavirus pandemic in Canada.

High quality, detailed data can help scientists form a clearer picture of what’s happening in what areas of the country and make suggestions about what each province or territory should be doing next, they said.

But the data about confirmed cases of COVID-19 — the disease caused by the new coronavirus —  that PHAC has thrown online has some serious holes, they say.

In an interview with Global News, Attaran said there’s only about 14,000 confirmed Canadian cases included in the dataset, fewer than half the cases that PHAC is reporting across the country.

The data also isn’t separated out geographically. This makes the dataset “almost completely useless,” Colijn argued, because the epidemic broke out in different provinces at different times and the provinces have been testing different base populations.


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The dataset also doesn’t specify whether the “episode date” listed for a single case is the date when someone’s symptoms first appeared, the laboratory testing date or the date a case was reported to an authority — dates that “can differ by weeks,” the B.C. researcher said.

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Attaran raised the issue of COVID-19 data before the House of Commons health committee on Tuesday, telling MPs studying Canada’s response to the pandemic that “scientists inside and outside government only have an incomplete data picture to work with.”

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“With one eye gouged out, they can’t churn out the best possible epidemiological forecast, meaning that we as Canada bumble into this end game unfit and unready,” he said.






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Coronavirus around the world: April 16, 2020


Coronavirus around the world: April 16, 2020

Attaran accused PHAC of deliberately hiding some COVID-19 data, suggesting the agency must have raw geographic data, for example, if it’s mapping out cases by province on their website.

Global News contacted PHAC for comment but did not receive a response by deadline.

On its epidemiological daily summary for April 16, PHAC said it had received “detailed” case data for 18,321 cases, or 63 per cent of reported cases. The summary notes that data on these cases are “preliminary” and provinces and territories “may not routinely update detailed data.”

Better cross-Canada strategy needed, scientists argue

Attaran and Colijn both think systemic issues with how public health data is “siloed” and shared in Canada is ultimately to blame for the limited data to which they’ve had access as the coronavirus spreads.

PHAC relies on the provinces to pass along their data but the provinces aren’t all tracking COVID-19 data in the same way, Colijn told Global News.

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For example, information on who is being tested for the virus and why — for both positive and negative cases — isn’t being collected in “a consistent manner” across the provincial health systems and by their respective regional health authorities, she said.

“I think we’re almost no better off modelling Canadian populations here in Canada than we would be if we were sitting with an Internet connection literally anywhere in the world looking at publicly available data,” said Colijn, who holds a Canada 150 research chair in mathematics for evolution, infection and public health.

“I think that’s really shocking for Canada, because I think we should be able to do this.”

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Pressures and concerns about privacy also present another hurdle when it comes to sharing and disclosing data in urgent situations, scientists argued.

“There’s no question that effective mechanisms can be set up that prevent breaches of privacy while still allowing data scientists to use their skills and insights to improve every aspect of healthcare and many other key services,” David Naylor, a professor of medicine at the University of Toronto, said in an email to Global News.

For his part, Attaran thinks it’s a major problem that provinces aren’t obligated by law to share their public health and infection disease surveillance data and he urged MPs on Tuesday to push for legislated data sharing.

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But he fears politicians won’t go that route because the provinces “have insisted they control their own data” and forcing them to share it might be “politically sensitive,” he said.


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An information sharing agreement does exist between the federal government and the provinces and territories, he told Global News, but he argued it has no “teeth.”

“There’s no reason” why Canada can’t have a data system where the provinces input their case data regularly and have it “automatically passed on to a larger federal database,” he said.

“I think a reasonable solution would be that when there’s an epidemic emergency, the province shall deliver any data on active cases to the federal government within 24 hours … and it shall deliver it in such a way that permission is given to the federal government to make it public and make use of it.

“We should have transparency over data and epidemic outbreaks.”

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While she had no comment on legislation specifically, Colijn said “it’s really important to have a good national strategy and to have data sharing and data collection be part of that national strategy.”

“Building up that understanding and then introducing an appropriate pandemic plan and actually implementing that plan and having data be part of that, I think that could be incredibly valuable,” she said.

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“It could be that legislation from MPs would would really help with that.”


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The Prime Minister’s Office and the federal health minister’s office did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

Legislation or no legislation, Colijn said it’s not too late in the current pandemic to get more complete data.

“It is not beyond us to make a detailed line list where we write down information about each case and their timings in a high-density way,” she said.

“We could do this if we wanted to do it.”

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Virginia Democrats advance efforts to protect abortion, voting rights, marriage equality

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RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats who control both chambers of the Virginia legislature are hoping to make good on promises made on the campaign trail, including becoming the first Southern state to expand constitutional protections for abortion access.

The House Privileges and Elections Committee advanced three proposed constitutional amendments Wednesday, including a measure to protect reproductive rights. Its members also discussed measures to repeal a now-defunct state constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and ways to revise Virginia’s process to restore voting rights for people who served time for felony crimes.

“This meeting was an important next step considering the moment in history we find ourselves in,” Democratic Del. Cia Price, the committee chair, said during a news conference. “We have urgent threats to our freedoms that could impact constituents in all of the districts we serve.”

The at-times raucous meeting will pave the way for the House and Senate to take up the resolutions early next year after lawmakers tabled the measures last January. Democrats previously said the move was standard practice, given that amendments are typically introduced in odd-numbered years. But Republican Minority Leader Todd Gilbert said Wednesday the committee should not have delved into the amendments before next year’s legislative session. He said the resolutions, particularly the abortion amendment, need further vetting.

“No one who is still serving remembers it being done in this way ever,” Gilbert said after the meeting. “Certainly not for something this important. This is as big and weighty an issue as it gets.”

The Democrats’ legislative lineup comes after Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, to the dismay of voting-rights advocates, rolled back a process to restore people’s civil rights after they completed sentences for felonies. Virginia is the only state that permanently bans anyone convicted of a felony from voting unless a governor restores their rights.

“This amendment creates a process that is bounded by transparent rules and criteria that will apply to everybody — it’s not left to the discretion of a single individual,” Del. Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, the patron of the voting rights resolution, which passed along party lines, said at the news conference.

Though Democrats have sparred with the governor over their legislative agenda, constitutional amendments put forth by lawmakers do not require his signature, allowing the Democrat-led House and Senate to bypass Youngkin’s blessing.

Instead, the General Assembly must pass proposed amendments twice in at least two years, with a legislative election sandwiched between each statehouse session. After that, the public can vote by referendum on the issues. The cumbersome process will likely hinge upon the success of all three amendments on Democrats’ ability to preserve their edge in the House and Senate, where they hold razor-thin majorities.

It’s not the first time lawmakers have attempted to champion the three amendments. Republicans in a House subcommittee killed a constitutional amendment to restore voting rights in 2022, a year after the measure passed in a Democrat-led House. The same subcommittee also struck down legislation supporting a constitutional amendment to repeal an amendment from 2006 banning marriage equality.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers voted 16-5 in favor of legislation protecting same-sex marriage, with four Republicans supporting the resolution.

“To say the least, voters enacted this (amendment) in 2006, and we have had 100,000 voters a year become of voting age since then,” said Del. Mark Sickles, who sponsored the amendment as one of the first openly gay men serving in the General Assembly. “Many people have changed their opinions of this as the years have passed.”

A constitutional amendment protecting abortion previously passed the Senate in 2023 but died in a Republican-led House. On Wednesday, the amendment passed on party lines.

If successful, the resolution proposed by House Majority Leader Charniele Herring would be part of a growing trend of reproductive rights-related ballot questions given to voters. Since 2022, 18 questions have gone before voters across the U.S., and they have sided with abortion rights advocates 14 times.

The voters have approved constitutional amendments ensuring the right to abortion until fetal viability in nine states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Vermont. Voters also passed a right-to-abortion measure in Nevada in 2024, but it must be passed again in 2026 to be added to the state constitution.

As lawmakers debated the measure, roughly 18 members spoke. Mercedes Perkins, at 38 weeks pregnant, described the importance of women making decisions about their own bodies. Rhea Simon, another Virginia resident, anecdotally described how reproductive health care shaped her life.

Then all at once, more than 50 people lined up to speak against the abortion amendment.

“Let’s do the compassionate thing and care for mothers and all unborn children,” resident Sheila Furey said.

The audience gave a collective “Amen,” followed by a round of applause.

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Associated Press writer Geoff Mulvihill in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, contributed to this report.

___

Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative.

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Vancouver Canucks winger Joshua set for season debut after cancer treatment

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Vancouver Canucks winger Dakota Joshua is set to make his season debut Thursday after missing time for cancer treatment.

Head coach Rick Tocchet says Joshua will slot into the lineup Thursday when Vancouver (8-3-3) hosts the New York Islanders.

The 28-year-old from Dearborn, Mich., was diagnosed with testicular cancer this summer and underwent surgery in early September.

He spoke earlier this month about his recovery, saying it had been “very hard to go through” and that he was thankful for support from his friends, family, teammates and fans.

“That was a scary time but I am very thankful and just happy to be in this position still and be able to go out there and play,,” Joshua said following Thursday’s morning skate.

The cancer diagnosis followed a career season where Joshua contributed 18 goals and 14 assists across 63 regular-season games, then added four goals and four assists in the playoffs.

Now, he’s ready to focus on contributing again.

“I expect to be good, I don’t expect a grace period. I’ve been putting the work in so I expect to come out there and make an impact as soon as possible,” he said.

“I don’t know if it’s going to be perfect right from the get-go, but it’s about putting your best foot forward and working your way to a point of perfection.”

The six-foot-three, 206-pound Joshua signed a four-year, US$13-million contract extension at the end of June.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump chooses anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary

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NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, putting him in charge of a massive agency that oversees everything from drug, vaccine and food safety to medical research and the social safety net programs Medicare and Medicaid.

“For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social site announcing the appointment. Kennedy, he said, would “Make America Great and Healthy Again!”

Kennedy, a former Democrat who ran as an independent in this year’s presidential race, abandoned his bid after striking a deal to give Trump his endorsement with a promise to have a role in health policy in the administration.

He and Trump have since become good friends, with Kennedy frequently receiving loud applause at Trump’s rallies.

The expected appointment was first reported by Politico Thursday.

A longtime vaccine skeptic, Kennedy is an attorney who has built a loyal following over several decades of people who admire his lawsuits against major pesticide and pharmaceutical companies. He has pushed for tighter regulations around the ingredients in foods.

With the Trump campaign, he worked to shore up support among young mothers in particular, with his message of making food healthier in the U.S., promising to model regulations imposed in Europe. In a nod to Trump’s original campaign slogan, he named the effort “Make America Healthy Again.”

It remains unclear how that will square with Trump’s history of deregulation of big industries, including food. Trump pushed for fewer inspections of the meat industry, for example.

Kennedy’s stance on vaccines has also made him a controversial figure among Democrats and some Republicans, raising question about his ability to get confirmed, even in a GOP-controlled Senate. Kennedy has espoused misinformation around the safety of vaccines, including pushing a totally discredited theory that childhood vaccines cause autism.

He also has said he would recommend removing fluoride from drinking water. The addition of the material has been cited as leading to improved dental health.

HHS has more than 80,000 employees across the country. It houses the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medicare and Medicaid programs and the National Institutes of Health.

Kennedy’s anti-vaccine nonprofit group, Children’s Health Defense, currently has a lawsuit pending against a number of news organizations, among them The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy took leave from the group when he announced his run for president but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.

__ Seitz reported from Washington.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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