Several scientists say the publicly-available COVID-19 data from Canada’s public health agency is “incomplete” and hurts their ability to build accurate pandemic models and forecasts that can help inform decision-makers.
They argue they need better data “urgently” and Canada as a whole needs a more robust and standardized system for data collection and sharing between the provinces and the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).
“It’s not about whether I get to write a paper with a model in it,” said Caroline Colijn, an infectious disease modeller and mathematics professor at Simon Fraser University.
“It’s about whether we can answer the key questions we need to be able to answer nationally about how do we relax distancing? How do we monitor so we know what’s going on if we did start to relax distancing measures? How can we safely restart our economy?”
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2:14 Coronavirus outbreak: Canada now stands at 29,826 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 1,048 deaths
Coronavirus outbreak: Canada now stands at 29,826 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 1,048 deaths
Colijn and Amir Attaran, a professor of both law and public health at the University of Ottawa, are both scientists trying to model the novel coronavirus pandemic in Canada.
High quality, detailed data can help scientists form a clearer picture of what’s happening in what areas of the country and make suggestions about what each province or territory should be doing next, they said.
But the data about confirmed cases of COVID-19 — the disease caused by the new coronavirus — that PHAC has thrown online has some serious holes, they say.
In an interview with Global News, Attaran said there’s only about 14,000 confirmed Canadian cases included in the dataset, fewer than half the cases that PHAC is reporting across the country.
The data also isn’t separated out geographically. This makes the dataset “almost completely useless,” Colijn argued, because the epidemic broke out in different provinces at different times and the provinces have been testing different base populations.
The dataset also doesn’t specify whether the “episode date” listed for a single case is the date when someone’s symptoms first appeared, the laboratory testing date or the date a case was reported to an authority — dates that “can differ by weeks,” the B.C. researcher said.
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Attaran raised the issue of COVID-19 data before the House of Commons health committee on Tuesday, telling MPs studying Canada’s response to the pandemic that “scientists inside and outside government only have an incomplete data picture to work with.”
“With one eye gouged out, they can’t churn out the best possible epidemiological forecast, meaning that we as Canada bumble into this end game unfit and unready,” he said.
4:01 Coronavirus around the world: April 16, 2020
Coronavirus around the world: April 16, 2020
Attaran accused PHAC of deliberately hiding some COVID-19 data, suggesting the agency must have raw geographic data, for example, if it’s mapping out cases by province on their website.
Global News contacted PHAC for comment but did not receive a response by deadline.
On its epidemiological daily summary for April 16, PHAC said it had received “detailed” case data for 18,321 cases, or 63 per cent of reported cases. The summary notes that data on these cases are “preliminary” and provinces and territories “may not routinely update detailed data.”
Attaran and Colijn both think systemic issues with how public health data is “siloed” and shared in Canada is ultimately to blame for the limited data to which they’ve had access as the coronavirus spreads.
PHAC relies on the provinces to pass along their data but the provinces aren’t all tracking COVID-19 data in the same way, Colijn told Global News.
For example, information on who is being tested for the virus and why — for both positive and negative cases — isn’t being collected in “a consistent manner” across the provincial health systems and by their respective regional health authorities, she said.
“I think we’re almost no better off modelling Canadian populations here in Canada than we would be if we were sitting with an Internet connection literally anywhere in the world looking at publicly available data,” said Colijn, who holds a Canada 150 research chair in mathematics for evolution, infection and public health.
“I think that’s really shocking for Canada, because I think we should be able to do this.”
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Pressures and concerns about privacy also present another hurdle when it comes to sharing and disclosing data in urgent situations, scientists argued.
“There’s no question that effective mechanisms can be set up that prevent breaches of privacy while still allowing data scientists to use their skills and insights to improve every aspect of healthcare and many other key services,” David Naylor, a professor of medicine at the University of Toronto, said in an email to Global News.
For his part, Attaran thinks it’s a major problem that provinces aren’t obligated by law to share their public health and infection disease surveillance data and he urged MPs on Tuesday to push for legislated data sharing.
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But he fears politicians won’t go that route because the provinces “have insisted they control their own data” and forcing them to share it might be “politically sensitive,” he said.
An information sharing agreement does exist between the federal government and the provinces and territories, he told Global News, but he argued it has no “teeth.”
“There’s no reason” why Canada can’t have a data system where the provinces input their case data regularly and have it “automatically passed on to a larger federal database,” he said.
“I think a reasonable solution would be that when there’s an epidemic emergency, the province shall deliver any data on active cases to the federal government within 24 hours … and it shall deliver it in such a way that permission is given to the federal government to make it public and make use of it.
“We should have transparency over data and epidemic outbreaks.”
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While she had no comment on legislation specifically, Colijn said “it’s really important to have a good national strategy and to have data sharing and data collection be part of that national strategy.”
“Building up that understanding and then introducing an appropriate pandemic plan and actually implementing that plan and having data be part of that, I think that could be incredibly valuable,” she said.
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“It could be that legislation from MPs would would really help with that.”
MILAN (AP) — Bologna’s preparations for its Champions League debut are not going well though it managed to spoil Como’s first Serie A home match in 21 years on Saturday.
Bologna came from two goals down to salvage a 2-2 draw to gather three points from its opening four matches.
Bologna hosts Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday. Its only other appearance in Europe’s top competition was in 1964 in the preliminary round of the old European Cup.
AC Milan is also winless as it prepares for a Tuesday Champions League match against Liverpool. The Rossoneri hosted promoted Venezia later. Juventus drew at Empoli 0-0.
Como made a great start in the fifth minute when Patrick Cutrone attempted to roll the ball across the six-yard box but it took a huge deflection off Bologna defender Nicolò Casale for an own goal.
Bologna thought it was gifted a way back into the match on the stroke of halftime when referee Marco Piccinini signalled for a penalty following an Alberto Moreno handball, but he revoked his decision and instead gave a free kick because the handball was just outside the area.
Bologna improved after the break but found itself further behind when Cutrone raced onto a through ball and cut inside past a defender and fired into the far bottom corner.
Tommaso Pobega hit the post for Bologna, which finally pulled one back in the 76th through substitute Santiago Castro.
Another substitute helped the visitors snatch a point when Samuel Iling-Junior curled a fine strike into the top left corner in stoppage time.
Unbeaten sides
Juventus, and more surprisingly Empoli, are among six unbeaten sides.
Empoli held Monza and Bologna to draws either side of a shock 2-1 win at Roma. Juventus’ perfect start to the season was ruined by Roma in a goalless draw before the international break.
On Saturday, there were few clearcut chances in Empoli although home goalkeeper Devis Vásquez made spectacular saves to fingertip out a Federico Gatti header and deny Dusan Vlahovic in a one on one with the Juventus forward.
Empoli had a good opportunity in the 73rd minute following an Alberto Grassi one-two with Pietro Pellegri but the finish was straight at Mattia Perin.
The host could have won it right at the death but Gatti flew in with a great sliding block to keep out Emanuel Gyasi’s close-range effort.
Juventus hosts PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League on Tuesday.
MANCHESTER, England (AP) — Not good enough. That was Arne Slot’s verdict after his first defeat as Liverpool manager on Saturday.
A shock 1-0 loss at home to Nottingham Forest in the English Premier League ended Slot’s perfect record since succeeding Jurgen Klopp at Anfield at the end of last season.
“We had a lot of ball possession but only managed to create three (or) four quite good chances, so that is by far not enough if you have so much ball possession,” said the Dutchman, who suggested his team should not be losing to the likes of Forest.
“If you lose a home game it’s always a setback, especially if you face a team … we never know, maybe they will go all the way to fight for Champions League tickets, but normally this team is not ending up in the top 10, so if you lose a game against them that’s a big disappointment.”
Slot won his first three games in charge, including a memorable 3-0 victory against Manchester United before the international break.
But that run came to an end after Callum Hudson-Odoi struck in the 72nd with a curling effort from the edge of the box and beyond goalkeeper Alisson.
Liverpool’s defeat leaves Manchester City as the only team with a 100% record in the league after a 2-1 win against Brentford kept the defending champion at the top of the table.
United won at Southampton 3-0 to end its two-game losing streak.
Unstoppable Haaland
Erling Haaland moved to 99 goals for City after scoring twice against Brentford.
The Norwegian’s double came after Yoane Wissa fired Brentford ahead with just 22 seconds on the clock.
Haaland scored his 98th and 99th goals in his 103rd City appearance in all competitions. And he was the width of the post away from his third consecutive hat trick after trebles against Ipswich and West Ham.
“He’s been really, really good. Yeah, I would say he’s the best (he’s been), but it’s only four fixtures (this season),” City manager Pep Guardiola said.
Haaland, who has been nominated for the Ballon d’Or, has nine goals in four league games. He has topped the league scoring charts in each of his two seasons at City since joining from Borussia Dortmund in 2022 for $63 million.
Haaland’s first goal after 19 minutes evened the game following Wissa’s opener, which stunned the Etihad Stadium crowd. Haaland turned and swept a shot past goalkeeper Mark Flekken after a slight deflection off Ethan Pinnock.
He was then too strong for Pinnock when shaking off the defender and running through for his second in the 32nd.
He was inches away in the 81st; the shot came back off the post after beating the keeper.
Rashford snaps run
Marcus Rashford snapped a 12-game barren run in front of goal as United beat Southampton.
Rashford doubled United’s lead at Saint Mary’s after Matthijs de Ligt’s scored his first for the club. Substitute Alejandro Garnacho scored a third in the sixth minute of stoppage time.
The win came after back-to-back defeats for United.
Rashford hadn’t scored since March in United’s win over Liverpool in the FA Cup quarterfinals. He curled in a shot from the edge of the area to put Erik ten Hag’s team 2-0 up at Southampton in the 41st minute.
Ten Hag said it could be a turning point for the forward.
“For every striker, they want to be on the scoring list. Once the first is in, more is coming. Like a ketchup bottle, once it’s going, it’s coming more,” he said.
De Ligt, who joined United from Bayern Munich in the offseason, headed in from Bruno Fernandes’ cross in the 35th.
It could have been a different story if Cameron Archer converted a penalty for Southampton in the 33rd. Instead, his effort was saved by goalkeeper Andre Onana.
Newly promoted Southampton was reduced to 10 men when Jack Stephens was sent off in the 79th for a high challenge on Garnacho.
Villa comeback
After three straight defeats to start the league, Everton looked set for its first win when leading Aston Villa 2-0.
Goals from Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin put Sean Dyche’s team in control until Ollie Watkins struck twice to even the game.
Jhon Duran completed Villa’s comeback and sealed a 3-2 win in the 76th to leave Everton rooted to the bottom of the table and the only top flight team without a point.
Late drama
Jean-Philippe Mateta converted a stoppage time penalty to salvage a 2-2 draw for Crystal Palace against Leicester.
Leicester led 2-0 at Selhurst Park after goals from Jamie Vardy and Stephy Mavididi.
But Mateta sparked Palace’s response with a goal in the 47th, a minute after Mavididi doubled Leicester’s advantage.
Conor Coady fouled Ismaili Sarr in the box right near fulltime and Mateta was cool enough to convert.
West Ham left it even later to salvage a point in a 1-1 draw at Fulham.
Danny Ings struck in the fifth minute of added time after Raul Jimenez’s goal looked like earning Fulham the win.
Brighton boss Fabian Hurzeler, the manager of the month for August, was frustrated as his team was held to 0-0 at home by Ipswich.
CLEVELAND (AP) — Restricted free agent forward Isaac Okoro has agreed to re-sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers on a three-year contract, a person familiar with the negotiations told The Associated Press on Saturday.
Okoro’s new deal is worth $38 million, according to the person who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the contract has not been signed or announced by the team.
ESPN.com first reported the agreement, citing Okoro’s representation.
The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NBA draft, Okoro is Cleveland’s best perimeter defender, often drawing the assignment of guarding the opponent’s top scorer. Okoro also has worked to improve his offensive game.
The 23-year-old averaged 9.4 points and 3.0 rebounds in 69 games — 42 starts — last season for the Cavs, who beat Orlando in the opening round of the playoffs before losing to eventual champion Boston.
Okoro shot a career-best 39% on 3-pointers, forcing teams to come out and guard him.
His agreement caps an extraordinarily busy summer for the Cavs that began with coach J.B. Bickerstaff being fired and replaced by Kenny Atkinson. All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell signed a three-year, $150 million extension in July, ending months of speculation that he wanted out of Cleveland.
Also, power forward Evan Mobley signed a five-year, $224 deal and center Jarrett Allen signed a three-year, $91 million extension.
