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Coronavirus: Public need 'home truths' on economy – Hammond – BBC News

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Former Chancellor Lord Hammond has said the government must risk unpopularity and tell “some difficult home truths” about the state of the economy.

He told the BBC that dealing with the pandemic had been the financial equivalent of “fighting a war”.

But giving money away was easier than collecting it for “a populist government”, he added.

A Treasury spokesman said Chancellor Rishi Sunak “will be honest with the British people” about what is needed.

Next week’s Budget comes amid rising unemployment and follows the biggest UK annual economic shrinkage on record.

In an interview with BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg, Lord Hammond – who resigned as chancellor when Boris Johnson became prime minister in 2019 – said the economy had taken a “huge hit” from Covid-19, but should “bounce back”.

There had been “long-term scarring”, with sectors like aviation and hospitality suffering “permanent damage”, and transport and retail “changed forever”, he added.

Official figures show the UK economy contracted by 9.9% in 2020 – more than twice as much as in any previous year on record.

On Tuesday, it was revealed unemployment had risen to 5.1% in the three months to December – the worst rate since 2015.

And the national debt – worsened by furlough, other pandemic help schemes and falling tax takes – stands at more than £2 trillion.

Lord Hammond said it was unlikely in the “foreseeable future” that ministers would be able to “do anything that will actually see the debt starting to fall”.

“But what matters is not the absolute size of the debt, but the size of the debt relative to our economy,” he said.

“If we can grow the British economy over the coming years, then just as we did after the Second World War, we can make the debt fade in significance, because, although it stays the same in absolute terms, it becomes a much smaller percentage of our national economy.”

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Analysis box by Laura Kuenssberg, political editor

Philip Hammond has never been Boris Johnson’s number one fan, to put it mildly.

They clashed on Brexit, with the former chancellor being booted out of Parliamentary Conservative Party during the wild political autumn of 2019.

But even though he is back in the party fold, and with the ermine of a Tory member of the House of Lords no less, the former occupant of No 11 isn’t mincing his words.

While he sticks to the broad consensus backing the government’s massive emergency economic support during the pandemic, Lord Hammond looks very pointedly to the challenges that will come next, questioning whether Downing Street will have the right priorities.

His not very subtle implication: Downing Street would rather be popular than do the right thing.

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Lord Hammond said the challenge facing the government was “how to move out of this crisis period”.

He praised Mr Sunak for getting the economic response right so far and said he was “very confident” his instincts were “the right ones”.

But he said his fear was “that as a populist government, giving money away is always easier than collecting it in”, and warned that ministers had “made very extravagant commitments to the British electorate in good faith before the coronavirus crisis”.

“Not all of those commitments can now sensibly be delivered on and that’s going to be a big challenge for a government that regards its short-term popularity as very, very important,” Lord Hammond added.

He said he was “not sure” the current “top leadership” had the “appetite for being unpopular, in order to do the right thing”.

The prime minister has said the chancellor will set out the government’s plans to “build back better” in next Wednesday’s Budget.

Mr Sunak has promised to lay out the “support we’ll provide through the remainder of the pandemic and our recovery”, adding: “I know how incredibly tough the past year has been for everyone, and every job lost is a personal tragedy.”

Responding to Lord Hammond’s comments, a Treasury spokesman said: “The chancellor has always put protecting jobs and livelihoods at the heart of everything he has done and that will not change.”This Budget will give people the reassurance they need in the immediate term, and he will be honest with the British people about how we are going to recover beyond this crisis.”

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was “not the time” for tax increases for individuals or businesses, given the ongoing impact of the pandemic.

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‘We need some help now’

James Green

James Green, who runs the Whitstable Oyster Company in Kent, says the impact of the pandemic has been “tough”.

“Obviously there’s Covid-19 at the beginning of the year, which affected us, the restaurant side of the business and the oyster sales. We were open over the summer. We were busy, like most coastal places, and then we shut again in November.”

But Mr Green adds: “For the oyster side of the business the impact of Brexit is probably had more of an effect than Covid-19, I would say.”

As a result of Britain leaving the single market, he says he has tons of oysters sitting on his farm that he cannot sell either to France or domestically.

Mr Green says the chancellor should give the shellfish industry “some help to get us through now – otherwise there won’t be one”.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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