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Coronavirus R value in Alberta remains low after parts of economy reopened – Globalnews.ca

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The reproduction number, also known as R number and R value, of the coronavirus in Alberta has been dropping over the last few months and has been holding steady even after two different phases of reopening in the province.

However, experts say that isn’t cause for celebration quite yet, saying Albertans need to continue following public health measures.

READ MORE: What the coronavirus reproduction number is, and why we should keep an eye on it

The reproduction number explains, if one infected person is introduced into a community, how many secondary people would become infected.

For example, if the R number is one, one person infects one other person who then infects one other person. An R number of two means one person infects two others who go on to infect two others each. An R number of 0.5 means fewer people will become infected than the previous generation of cases. For example, 100 people would infect 50 people, who infect 25 people and so on and so forth.

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Explaining COVID-19’s reproduction number


Explaining COVID-19’s reproduction number

In essence, a higher R number means more people can become infected, allowing faster spread of the disease than a smaller R number.

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“If you want to overcome an epidemic, the lower the R is, the better news that is. To have an epidemic end, you want to work with an R below one,” said epidemiologist Paul Veugelers, who is a professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Alberta.

Numbers provided to Global News from Alberta Health show the R number in the province has been slowly falling:

  • April 8 – 1.7
  • April 28 – 1.4
  • May 1 – 1.2
  • May 26 – 1.0
  • June 19 – 1.0
The R number in Alberta over the last few months.


The R number in Alberta over the last few months.


Tonia Gloweski/Global News

“We’ve seen that R [number] has gone down. That means infections are coming down so, [we’re] on the right path.

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“R one, where we are currently, means we’re not on the track where the epidemic will end but the epidemic is also not growing,” Veugelers said.

The R number has fallen or remained steady even after the province moved into Phase 1 and Phase 2 of reopening, which fell on May 14 and June 12 respectively.

READ MORE: Coronavirus: Gyms, pools, indoor fitness can open June 12 for Stage 2 of Alberta relaunch

“The fact that the R [number] continues to drop would suggest that, first of all, we probably don’t have a lot of COVID-19 circulating in our community and that people are still actually doing a reasonably good job with their physical distancing and that kind of thing,” said infectious disease expert Dr. Stephanie Smith. Smith adds that expanded testing in the province may also be affecting positivity rates.

Veugelers said it’s worth a pat on the back that the R number hasn’t increased as the province reopened, but cautions it isn’t cause for celebration quite yet.

“It should also be encouragement, like, we’re not there yet. We want that R [number] to be below one,” he said, adding more restrictive measures, handwashing, social isolation and social distancing can help bring the R number down even further.

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He said it is important for the R number to be continuously monitored and points to Germany, where some regions have brought back lockdown measures after seeing a rise in the R number.

READ MORE: Germany cautions coronavirus pandemic far from over as economies restart

“We are aware if we loosen up these restrictive measures, the R [number] may increase,” Veugelers said.

“Once the R [number] is on the increase again, you need to turn around those loosening measures.”

The R number may be falling but Dr. Smith said Albertans need to continue being vigilant.

“The R [number] can fluctuate so it doesn’t mean we can completely stop doing all the things we’ve been doing that have actually led to the R [number] decreasing,” Dr. Smith said.

with files from Patrick Cain

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Economy

Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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