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Coronavirus spread slowing in Canada; death rate rises due to long-term care fatalities – Global News

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Canadian public health officials initially underestimated how deadly the coronavirus would be in long-term care homes and have revised their calculations in new modelling numbers shared on Tuesday.

But chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says the data also shows Canada is slowing the overall spread of the first wave of the virus.


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Coronavirus ‘travel bubble’ idea gains steam but wouldn’t work for Canada, U.S.

“We are making clear progress to slow the spread and bring the epidemic under control,” she said in a briefing with journalists to explain the new modelling data.

[On April 9] Canada’s confirmed case count was doubling every three to five days. At this time, the number of cases is doubling at a rate of every 16 days.”

One factor in that, Tam said, is the fact that infected individuals are not infecting as many others.

When she briefed journalists on April 9, each infected person had spread the coronavirus to 2.19 other individuals, while the current transmission rate sees the virus spread to just over one other person.

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Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says goal of health measures to ensure each infected individual transmits the disease to less than one person


Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says goal of health measures to ensure each infected individual transmits the disease to less than one person

However, while the COVID-19 fatality rate was initially calculated as roughly 2.2 per cent, Tam said the rate has now been revised to 5.5 per cent in light of a spike in deaths in long-term care homes.

Overall, deaths in long-term care and seniors’ homes account for 79 per cent of the total deaths in the country, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).

Individuals over the age of 60 account for 95 per cent of total deaths, PHAC’s newest numbers said.


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Tam cautioned that the fatality rate could change again as the virus spread ebbs and flows.

“Until the epidemic is over, you actually don’t know the true case fatality rate,” she said.

“These are dynamic until you actually get to the bottom of the epidemic.”


READ MORE:
Nearly half of Canada’s COVID-19 deaths linked to long-term care facilities

Prior to the release of the data on Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cautioned that although the modelling shows the restrictions locking down the country are working, that doesn’t mean the danger has passed.

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“In many parts of the country, the curve has flattened,” Trudeau said during his daily news conference outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa.

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“But we’re not out of the woods yet.”






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Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says COVID-19 curve ‘has flattened’ in many parts of the country


Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says COVID-19 curve ‘has flattened’ in many parts of the country

PHAC updates short-term, but not long-term, projections

Health officials on Tuesday also provided a forecast for where things could be by May 5.

The new models suggest the country could see total deaths hit between 3,277 and 3,883 by next week, with 53,196 to 66,835 total confirmed cases.

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The update comes nearly three weeks after PHAC first released projections for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those projections — released April 9, based on the data that officials had at the time — laid out three possible long-term scenarios for how the pandemic might unfold in Canada based on strong, weak and no control measures for containing the virus.

Those first projections suggested that between 11,000 and 22,000 people could die from the virus in a “best-case scenario” where 2.5 to five per cent of the population is infected — but the new modelling data released on Tuesday did not alter those long-term projections.

“I think for our planning purposes, these three different scenarios are still useful at this moment in time,” Tam said.






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Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says Canadians must ‘plan to live’ with COVID-restrictions for some time


Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says Canadians must ‘plan to live’ with COVID-restrictions for some time

On April 9, federal officials stated that the path ahead depended heavily on Canadians’ collective actions.

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“The same holds true today,” Trudeau said on Tuesday.

Feds only have detailed info on 57 per cent of total cases in Canada

As of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, there are 49,804 confirmed cases of the coronavirus across the country, and 2,852 deaths linked to the virus so far.

However, as of Monday, PHAC only had received detailed data on approximately 57 per cent of the total number of cases reported to the agency, according to a daily epidemiological report.

The quality of the data shared by the provinces with PHAC has repeatedly been questioned by infectious disease and mathematical experts who point out it isn’t separated geographically and lacks detail distinguishing the dates of first symptoms from lab testing dates to the date a case was reported to health authorities — all of which can differ by weeks.


READ MORE:
‘Incomplete’ data for Canada hurts ability to model pandemic, scientists say

Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, admitted that acquiring complete data amid the pandemic is a challenge, but still maintained that the data the agency does currently have is “a good representation.”

“It is, to be honest … a bit of a weakness in terms of our collective system, the fact that at the federal level — our national level — we only get a certain percentage of the data,” Njoo said.

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“It’s not because of a lack of goodwill and that the provinces [and] territories don’t want to give us data, but there are some challenges — issues, infrastructure and so on.

“We’re all working together, I think, really well. And I think in the future, to be quite honest, those are things we need to look at in terms of how data’s managed, how data’s collected, transferred — even at local level to provincial level, and then to the federal level.”

The challenge increasingly confronting public health officials is satisfying a public hungry for clear information about how long their lives will be disrupted and what measures they should be taking to stay as safe as possible.

Ian Schnoor, president and founder of The Marquee Group — which is Canada’s leading data modelling firm — said that was evident in the briefing with Tam and Njoo.

“People were desperate and craving for more insight and understanding of what the future might look like,” he said of the repeated questioning by journalists for further explanations of the models.

“You could hear the frustration in their tone.”

Schnoor said there should be a modelling expert at the briefings who can convey technical details like how the data was prepared, what assumptions anchor them and how those assumptions translate into action.

But that isn’t Tam, he said, adding it isn’t her job to do mathematical modelling.

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“She’s the expert that can talk about public health measures that need to be put in place, she can talk about distancing and effective protocols that should be put in place and the way that the virus works and look for drugs and vaccines, but she was way out of her depth,” he said.

“Models need to be a communication tool and they’re not being used that way.”

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Vancouver officer sexually assaulted colleague, but police group chat targeted victim

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VANCOUVER – A disciplinary investigation has found a former Vancouver police sergeant shared “disrespectful” commentary on a fellow officer’s court testimony about being sexually assaulted by a colleague.

The decision against Narinder Dosanjh, obtained by The Canadian Press, includes the running commentary on the woman’s testimony — apparently written by someone inside the courtroom — that calls her a “bad drunk” and says there was “no way” her case would be proved.

Former New Westminster police chief Dave Jansen, the external officer who rendered the decision against Dosanjh, says his assessment accounts for a culture of treating officers who testify against each other as “rats.”

Former Vancouver constable Jagraj Roger Berar was convicted in 2021 and sentenced to a year in jail for assaulting the woman, who can’t be identified because of a publication ban on her name.

Jansen says in his ruling, dated Oct. 11, that the comments in a Vancouver police group chat appear “supportive” of Berar and reflect “all-too-common myths” about women who make sexual assault allegations.

While Jansen found Dosanjh committed discreditable conduct by sharing the chats, a complaint against a more-senior Vancouver officer who was inside the courtroom, and who the victim and other officers believed wrote the commentary, were not substantiated.

The ruling says Jansen, who retired as New Westminster’s chief constable, would accept submissions before deciding how Dosanjh should be punished.

The woman who was assaulted was the complainant in the disciplinary investigation, and said in an interview she felt “vindicated” by Jansen’s decision because it “truly paints what I’ve been through,” after reporting a fellow officer for sexual assault.

She said many other women in municipal policing fear speaking out about ill-treatment at work, and some have told her about being assaulted and harassed but feared ruining their careers if they complained.

“This decision is important for those women to see,” she said. “It shows the tides are changing. Like, this is the first win I’ve had.”

A spokesman for the Surrey Police Service, where Dosanjh now works, did not immediately answer a question about how he was penalized, and said Dosanjh declined an interview request with The Canadian Press.

In his decision, Jansen said there was an “unfortunate but often pervasive” culture of treating officers who complain as “‘rats’, who betrayed their colleagues.”

“In terms of the messages themselves, Sergeant Dosanjh alleges that they are not degrading, humiliating or derogatory and do not attack the personal character of the complainant. I disagree,” Jansen wrote.

The decision includes a screenshot of the commentary about the complainant, who said the order of the messages appeared to refer to her evidence while she was being cross-examined and suggested the comments were written by someone listening to her testimony.

The commentary on a Vancouver police chat group on the Signal messaging app said the victim “wore a wire twice,” and “admitted in cross to possibly drinking way more alcohol than she originally claimed.”

“Her memory is super hazy and there’s no way you can prove beyond reasonable doubt,” the person wrote.

“And she admitted that she is really bad drunk,” they added.

Another message said it was a “nail in the coffin” of the case that video showed the complainant “cuddling, holding hands” with Berar.

The victim, who became aware of the commentary when a friend in the department showed them to her, was distressed by the messages and disputed their accuracy, said Jansen.

“The comments also appear to reflect some of the all-too-common myths around women making allegations of sexual assault. Some of these myths include the belief that because a victim socialized with the perpetrator, or engaged in some consensual activity with him, therefore she must have consented to the assault,” he wrote.

Jansen’s decision said Dosanjh shared the messages with a fellow officer after getting them from a “VPD chat group that he claims he knew little about, from a co-worker he claims not to be able to identify.”

The decision said other officers believed the commentary was written bya more-senior officer in the department who had been present at the trial, but Jansen said the discreditable conduct complaint against that person was unsubstantiated.

The decision said Dosanjh claimed he was the “fall guy” and “a pawn in a broader game.”

Jansen’s decision said Dosanjh was a senior officer and supervisor who was aware of the “vulnerability of victims of sexual crimes and of the myths that surround sexual assault victims.”

It said Dosanjh’s “distribution of these messages that were disrespectful of an alleged victim of sexual violence who was also a co-worker, should they become public, would likely discredit the reputation of the police force.”

The Vancouver Police Department did not immediately provide comment on Jansen’s decision.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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Beetles from B.C. settling in Nova Scotia, taking up the fight to rescue hemlocks

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FREDERICTON – The offspring of beetles imported from British Columbia are ready to take up the fight against an invasive insect that is killing hemlock trees in Nova Scotia.

Last fall and spring, about 5,000 Laricobius nigrinus beetles — affectionately called Lari by scientists — made an overnight journey from the West Coast.

Lucas Roscoe, research scientist with the Canadian Forest Service, says in the fight against the woolly adelgid that is destroying swaths of hemlock trees in Nova Scotia, the first step was to make sure the Lari beetle can survive a Nova Scotia winter.

The one-to-two-millimetre black flying beetles were released across six sites in Nova Scotia that had the woolly adelgids.

In one of the sites, scientists placed cages of imported beetles and about 60 per cent of them were able to survive the winter in Nova Scotia, which Roscoe says is an encouraging rate.

He says the woolly adelgid was first seen in southwestern Nova Scotia in 2017 and the peppercorn-sized insect, aided by climate change, has since spread north.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

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‘Serious risks’: Researchers join push against importing monkeys for drug testing

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Dozens of researchers across Canada, including renowned environmentalist David Suzuki, have joined a growing chorus of voices urging the federal government to halt the importation of an endangered monkey species for medical research in Quebec.

A letter signed by 80 scientists, academics, doctors and students says testing on long-tailed macaques from Cambodia should be banned due to ethical concerns and potential public-health risks.

“A decade ago, chimpanzees, our closest primate relatives, ceased to be used for experimentation because using such animal ‘models’ could no longer be justified from scientific, ethical, and/or financial perspectives,” says the letter addressed to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, his environment minister and the premier of Quebec.

The researchers say they are also concerned about “the serious risks of transmission of zoonotic pathogens” that could be associated with transporting macaques.

Their letter urges the federal government to end charter flights that have been bringing the macaques into Canada, and to adopt regulations banning the importation of all primates for biomedical testing.

It’s the latest group to add more pressure on Ottawa to suspend the monkey imports by Charles River Laboratories, a U.S.-based pharmaceutical giant that has a sprawling facility in Montreal.

The company announced in 2023 that it was halting macaque imports into the U.S., after it was subpoenaed in a case that involved the indictment of two senior Cambodian officials over what authorities described as “multiple felonies for their role in bringing wild long-tailed macaques into the United States.”

No charges have been brought against Charles River Laboratories, or any of its officials, and the company has said it will fully co-operate with the U.S. investigation.

At around the same time, imports of monkeys from Cambodia into Canada dramatically surged, with Statistics Canada data showing a 500 per cent increase in 2023 from the year before.

Environment and Climate Change Canada, the federal department responsible for monitoring commercial trade in wildlife, confirmed to the Canadian Press that Charles River Laboratories has imported 6,769 long-tailed macaques into the country between January 2023 and August of this year. The monetary value of these imported macaques is around $120 million dollars, according to Statistics Canada.

The department previously said that officials rigorously and closely inspect imports of foreign animals, including those brought in by Charles River Laboratories, and that all macaque imports so far this year have complied with federal and international wildlife regulations.

The government and the company have both said that no Canadian laws have been broken.

Last month, the Canadian Transportation Authority issued a permit for another shipment on a cargo plane chartered by Charles River Laboratories. A flight tracker shows that a plane with the same flight number as what is shown on the permit departed Phnom Penh, Cambodia last Thursday, and arrived in Montreal on Friday.

Jesse Greener, a professor of chemistry at Laval University who signed the researchers’ letter to the government, said medical technology has developed to a point that makes it unjustifiable for the pharmaceutical industry to continue using live primates for testing.

“The government should take a leadership role and help researchers and surely the private sector to pivot from using these unethical, and I would say old and outdated and unreliable animal models, and embrace these much more efficient and ethical approaches that are … exploding right now,” said Greener, who has done research on methods to replace animals in such experiments.

“It is grotesque,” he said of the animal use. “It is time that we change the page on this chapter of terrible research and commercial activities.”

Canada banned the use of animals for cosmetic testing last year, but it is still legal to use live primates for drug testing purposes.

The federal government said a draft strategy aimed at reducing and replacing the use of animals in drug testing was published in September and open to public consultations for 60 days.

The strategy, which will be revised based on input from researchers, experts and others, is expected to be published in June 2025, it said.

“The government of Canada is committed to advancing efforts to replace, reduce, or refine the use of vertebrate animals in toxicity testing where possible,” Environment and Climate Change Canada said in a statement Tuesday.

Charles River Laboratories previously told The Canadian Press that while it is also committed to reducing its use of live primates, global regulatory bodies require drugs to be tested on animals before they are evaluated in humans.

The company said the use of non-human primates has been vital in developing treatments for various diseases and that the standards it applies in its facilities are exceeding global norms.

Matthew Green, a New Democrat MP who had previously called on the federal government to halt the latest shipment of macaques, said he has “great concern” about importing this exotic animal.

“Generally in Canada, Canadians like to believe that our government has higher regulations and more stringent enforcement protocols when it comes to protecting endangered species, yet this is not the case in comparison to what the United States has done,” he said.

Green and two of his NDP colleagues wrote a letter to three federal ministers last month, demanding an “immediate attention” to the issue.

The Animal Alliance of Canada also sent a letter to the environment minister in August, urging the immediate suspension of monkey importation from Cambodia.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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