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Coronavirus: What will happen to Canada’s housing market amid the pandemic? – Global News

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As the novel coronavirus pandemic forces parts of the economy to shut down, the snow is melting in areas of Canada in what’s normally a prelude to the busiest weeks of the year in real estate.

But will the health emergency freeze the spring housing market?

So far, it’s hard to tell. Real estate is what economists call a “lagging indicator,” notes Romana King of Zolo.ca, meaning that, usually, it takes a while for economic trends to be reflected in housing market data.

READ MORE: Coronavirus: 500,000 Canadians have filed for EI this week

“The numbers won’t show up for anywhere from a week to three months from now,” King said.

Still, there’s little doubt that COVID-19 has already brought about seismic changes in the industry.

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Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says goal of stimulus is to help people no longer recieving income

In February, the housing market in many parts of Canada seemed headed for red-hot season. Home sales were up nearly 27 per cent compared to the same month in 2019 and the national average home price had climbed 15 per cent.

Now, real estate agents are doing client meetings and home tours online or carrying hand sanitizers and gloves when showing properties in person.

READ MORE: Coronavirus — Canada’s big banks to allow mortgage payment deferrals

At Zoocasa.com, new company policies include sanitizing doorknobs, cabinets, countertops and other high-contact areas before and after each visit.

Also, handshakes are out.

“We keep at least six feet away from each other,” reads an online memo. The rule holds for both agents and clients.

READ MORE: Coronavirus — Here’s how to apply for EI and the new COVID-19 emergency benefit

Still, despite the industry’s efforts, the biggest change King has noticed is “the hyper reluctance of buyers to go visit sellers’ home.”

Others, unnerved about the uncertainty over the economy, are pressing the pause button on home-purchasing, King said.

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Will COVID-19 mean a shock for Montreal’s real estate market?

Others yet are seeing lenders press the pause button for them.

That’s what happened recently to a client of Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage, which offers services in the Greater Toronto Area, Ottawa, Vancouver and Calgary.

READ MORE: Trudeau unveils $82B in aid for families, business amid coronavirus uncertainty

When the lender conducted a routine check on the person’s employment status two weeks before the closing date, it discovered the client, who works in the hotel sector, had been temporarily laid off with no set return date.

The mortgage was cancelled, Butler said.

Butler sounded optimistic about the possibility of finding a solution for his client — possible alternatives included finding a co-signer or signing up with a different lender willing to take on more risk for a high mortgage rate, he said.

Still, buyers who find themselves in that situation face the possibility of losing thousands of dollars in deposit, Butler said. And if the seller has to re-list the property and eventually sells for a lower price, the original buyer may be on the hook for the difference, although they may be able to challenge that through litigation, he added.

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READ MORE: Coronavirus — Trudeau may tap Armed Forces, industry to produce additional medical supplies

In the current circumstances, some lawyers will take the view that “a contract is a contract — until there’s a plague,” Butler said.






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Why Canadians should care about money laundering in real-estate

For now, since the virus hit, Butler has had only one case of a lender pulling out. Nor has he seen prospective buyers getting gold feet as the closing date approaches, he said. But that may change.

The bulk of the layoffs in the hotel and restaurant industries have only come over the past two or three weeks, while home deals, on average, take 48 days to close, said Butler.

“The next three weeks are going to be the great run of insanity.”

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The news this week doesn’t bode well. Air Canada is set to temporarily lay off more than 5,000 employees, according to the union representing the airline’s flight attendants. And on Friday Ottawa said over half a million Canadians have recently filed for employment insurance, a volume Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called “historic.”

READ MORE: Air Canada to lay off over 5K flight attendants as coronavirus halts travel, union says.

Still, the market hasn’t dried out yet, King said.

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Even before COVID-19, virtual tours were becoming more and more popular. Some buyers are comfortable purchasing without seeing properties in person. Others, who have plenty of cash at hand, are undeterred by the economic outlook, she said.

No doubt, low mortgage rates are helping.

Well-qualified buyers can now get a five-year fixed rate for below 2.5 per cent and variable rates below two per cent.






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But mortgage rates have been climbing somewhat, noted Robert McLister, a mortgage broker and founder of rates-comparisons site RateSpy.com. For weeks, a slowing global economy pushed borrowing costs lower. But now that Canada’s economy is staring down the barrel of a recession, banks are facing both higher funding costs from jittery investors who help fund their mortgages and a higher likelihood of loan losses as borrowers struggle to keep up with payments.

READ MORE: Simple steps you can take to prepare for a recession amid coronavirus

“Both funding costs and credit risk (expected losses) have surged. When that happens, banks protect their profitability and increase margins by lifting rates,” McLister said via email.

Some lenders are lifting variable mortgage rates even after the Bank of Canada lowered its trend-setting policy rate by one percentage point in the span of less than two weeks.

Banks can’t lower the interest they pay on deposits as much as mortgage rates, McLister said. This squeezes their margins and creates upward pressure on mortgage rates.

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That should stop when people get back to work and mortgage arrears have topped out, McLister said.

How soon that actually happens will be key in determining whether the housing market is headed for a temporary blip or something more serious, King said.

“We talk about interest rates and we talk about supply and demand levels,” King said. “But the primary indicator when we talk about real estate is job security.”

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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