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Officials are urging people not to gather for family or religious events over the long weekend after the release of a report that suggested Canada could see thousands of COVID-19 deaths even with strong public health measures.

After facing calls for more data about what was driving decisions, federal health officials on Thursday presented modelling information on how the outbreak could unfold. 

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, said that the models aren’t crystal balls — but they “help us to plan and they tell us that our collective actions can have a direct and significant impact on the epidemic trajectory.”

The models suggest that even with stringent public health measures, Canada could see 4,400 deaths linked to the growing epidemic. That figure — the most optimistic in the models presented — is just one of the projections offered by officials, who stressed that how people behave now will be critical to how the epidemic evolves.

Public health officials urged people to stay home, avoid large gatherings and keep up physical distancing, handwashing and other measures.

Speaking after the public health briefing Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that months of determined effort would be needed to keep case numbers at the lower end. 

“We are going to continue to lose people across this country in the coming weeks,” said Trudeau, who noted normal was still a long way away. “We will not be coming back to our former normal situation; we can’t do that until we have developed a vaccine and that could take 12 to 18 months.”

The novel coronavirus, formally known as SARS-CoV2, was first reported in China in late 2019. There is no known cure or vaccine for COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus. While most people who contract the illness will experience mild to moderate symptoms, health officials have cautioned that certain segments of the population, including the elderly and people with pre-existing health issues, face a higher risk of severe disease and death.

The Public Health Agency of Canada, which has been posting updated information about the virus, says that COVID-19 is a “serious health threat.” The agency says that risk varies between communities but notes that the overall risk to Canadians is ” considered high.” 

Read on for a look at what’s happening in Canada and around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening in the provinces and territories

As of 6 a.m. ET on Friday, Canada had 20,765 confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19. The provinces and territories that provide data on recovered cases listed 5,324 as resolved. A CBC News tally of deaths, which is based on public health information and reporting, lists 544 COVID-19-related deaths in Canada, as well as two coronavirus-linked deaths of Canadians abroad.

British Columbia’s top doctor says she doesn’t plan to build out projections around possible COVID-19 death tolls. “Our modelling is about what we need to prepare for,” Dr. Bonnie Henry said. “As you can see, deaths are not something that can be predicted. It depends on how your outbreak evolves.” Read more about what’s happening in B.C.

“You’re saving lives.” That is the message from Alberta’s top doctor to people sticking to public health measures like physical distancing. Dr. Deena Hinshaw said this long weekend and the weeks ahead “will be a difficult test for all of us who normally come together to celebrate the holidays.” Read more about what’s happening in Alberta.

Saskatchewan announced $50 million in funding to help small and medium businesses impacted by the fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak. Read more about what’s happening in Saskatchewan.

In Manitoba, three people linked to the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg have tested positive for COVID-19. They are all in self-isolation and Manitoba Health is doing contact tracing, an email obtained by CBC News says. Read more about what’s happening in Manitoba.

WATCH | Older long-term care homes face harder fight against COVID-19:

More than 620 health-care workers in Ontario have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, data shows. Read more about what’s happening in Ontario.

In Quebec, public health officials say there are almost 11,000 coronvirus cases, with a total of 216 deaths. The province on Thursday had 679 COVID-19 patients in hospital, with 196 in intensive care units. Read more about what’s happening in Quebec, including what the premier said about reopening parts of the province’s economy.

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs said Thursday that there’s hope the province could return to “normal in some form this summer.” Higgs said that reopening businesses will depend on how the situation evolves in the coming weeks and months and noted that the economy won’t reopen fully until a vaccine is developed. Read more about what’s happening in N.B.

Nova Scotia doesn’t plan to lift restrictions in place because of COVID-19 until at least June. Dr. Robert Strang, the province’s top health officer, said the summer “is going to look somewhat different than most summers.” Read more about what’s happening in N.S.

Prince Edward Island has created a $750,000 fund to help farmers as they face the fallout from the novel coronavirus. Read more about what’s happening on P.E.I.

Newfoundland and Labrador’s health minister is warning people that the province’s peak is expected later than other provinces — and says that restrictions could be in place for months to come. Read more about what’s happening in N.L.

The Yukon government is offering financial assistance for eligible businesses that have been impacted by COVID-19 and the measures to fight it. Read more about what’s happening across Canada’s North.

Here’s a look at what’s happening in the United States

From The Associated Press and Reuters, updated at 8 a.m. ET

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Twitter Friday a funding measure to help small businesses should be approved by Congress with no additions, as a partisan skirmish in the U.S. Senate cut short a Republican effort to speed up the $250 billion in new assistance.

“Democrats are blocking a [$251 billion] funding boost for Small Businesses which will help them keep their employees. It should be for only that reason, with no additions. We should have a big Infrastructure Phase Four with Payroll Tax Cuts & more. Big Economic Bounceback!” Trump said in a Twitter post.

The U.S. reported more massive job loss on Thursday, as government figures showed 6.6 million workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, on top of more than 10 million in the two weeks before that.

The Federal Reserve announced it will provide up to $2.3 trillion US in loans targeted toward both households and businesses.

More than 7,000 people have died in New York state, accounting for almost half the U.S. death toll of more than 16,000.

“That is so shocking and painful and breathtaking, I don’t even have the words for it,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday after his state reported a record-breaking number of deaths linked to COVID-19 for a third straight day at 799.

WATCH | COVID-19 outbreak a test of New York’s strength:

But he said there are hopeful signs, including slowdowns in the number of people being hospitalized, admitted to intensive care and placed on ventilators.

He said the onslaught of patients has not been as big as feared and hospitals are standing up to the strain so far. About 18,000 people were hospitalized, well short of the 90,000 hospital beds statewide, many of which were hurriedly lined up at a convention centre and a Navy ship docked in the city.

Here’s a look at what’s happening around the world 

From The Associated Press and Reuters, updated at 8 a.m. ET

In Rome, the torch-lit Way of the Cross procession at the Colosseum is a highlight of Holy Week, drawing large crowds of pilgrims, tourists and locals. It’s been cancelled this year, along with all other public gatherings in Italy, which is battling one of the worst outbreaks.

The virus has killed more than 18,000 people in Italy and over 95,000 worldwide, according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University.

The coronavirus has claimed at least 15,843 lives in Spain and has officially infected 152,446 people, although both the rate of contagion and mortality are dropping, official health ministry data showed Friday. The 605 new deaths recorded overnight were the lowest increase since March 24.

Britain recorded 881 new deaths, for close to 8,000 in all.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in “very good spirits” after returning to a hospital ward from intensive care, but his recovery is at an early stage, his spokesperson said on Friday.

Meantime, there were encouraging signs in France, where the national health agency saw indications the crisis is stabilizing, though more than 12,000 lives have been lost. The country’s only aircraft carrier has confirmed 50 cases of the virus aboard and is heading back to port.

Pope Francis will celebrate Easter Mass in a nearly empty St. Peter’s Basilica instead of the huge square outside. In England, the Archbishop of Canterbury will deliver his Easter sermon by video.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested mass gatherings may be barred through the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which runs from late April through most of May.

Yemen reported its first case on Friday, as aid groups try to prepare for an outbreak where war has shattered the health system and spread hunger and disease.

China’s Wuhan city, where the pandemic began, is still testing residents regularly despite relaxing its tough two-month lockdown, with the country wary of a rebound as it sets its sights on normalizing the economy.

The total number of novel coronavirus infections in Japan hit 6,003 on Friday, public broadcaster NHK reported.

Early voting in South Korea’s parliamentary election began on Friday with coronavirus patients casting ballots at disinfected polling stations.

All Botswana’s parliamentarians, including the president, will be quarantined for two weeks and tested, after a health worker screening lawmakers for the virus tested positive.

The epidemic has so far infected over 440 people in Burkina Faso, including six government ministers, and killed 24.  

Chile will start handing out certificates to people who have recovered that will exempt them from adhering to quarantines or other restrictions.

Mexico has recorded its first two deaths of pregnant women from the coronavirus as the reported death toll reached 194, the health ministry said.

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