News

Could Canada follow the U.S.’s economic decline? Here’s what experts say – Global News

Published

2 years ago

July 30, 2022

Call it a tale of two economies: the latest figures from Statistics Canada on Friday show economic growth in the country slowed but likely avoided a decline through the first half of the year, just as the United States reported its second consecutive quarter of contraction a day earlier.

The economies of the two North American neighbours have long been entwined; as of late, the two countries have been rocked with decades-high inflation and rising interest rates as central banks push to dampen surging prices.

Both Canada and the U.S. have seen manufacturing output slow, dragging down real gross domestic product this past spring, and housing markets on both sides of the border have significantly cooled in response to rising rates.

Economists say the main difference lies in the pace of the two economic recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic. But as recession rumblings get louder south of the border, Canada’s economic fate might well be tied to the U.S.

Click to play video: 'Too much, too soon? Experts say rapid interest rates are pushing Canada closer to a recession'

4:08
Too much, too soon? Experts say rapid interest rates are pushing Canada closer to a recession

Too much, too soon? Experts say rapid interest rates are pushing Canada closer to a recession – Jul 6, 2022

Canada’s recovery — and decline — lags U.S.

Consumer spending makes up a significant portion of both the Canadian and the U.S. economies, notes Beata Caranci, chief economist of TD Bank.

But the consumer side is an even larger chunk of the U.S. economy, she tells Global News, which makes slowdowns in demand even more apparent in their GDP results.

The U.S. also began its reopening cycle from the COVID-19 pandemic much sooner, as the country had a faster COVID-19 vaccine rollout and loosened restrictions earlier.

Carrie Freestone, economist with Royal Bank of Canada, says the Canadian economic recovery is still progressing this summer as consumer demand for air travel and dining at restaurants, for instance, remains strong.

When this demand eases off, as Freestone expects will happen in due course as rising interest rates bite into household budgets, Canada’s consumer spending trends could fall back in line with its southern neighbour.

“I don’t necessarily think it’s a divergent path. I think it is just that we have a lot more of this pent-up service sector demand in Canada being unleashed,” she tells Global News.

“I think Canada’s definitely lagging the U.S.”

While the U.S. GDP has a heavier weight towards consumer spending, Canada’s economy is more exposed to the housing market, Caranci notes.

As a result, Canada could feel an outsized impact on its GDP as most economists predict a continued housing correction into the fall.

Click to play video: 'Home buyers expected to sacrifice more'

1:49
Home buyers expected to sacrifice more

Home buyers expected to sacrifice more – Jul 20, 2022

Some global forces, meanwhile, could buoy the Canadian economy, notes Capital Economics’ Stephen Brown.

He notes that while commodities have seen “pretty widespread falls recently,” oil prices are still holding up, representing a boon for Canada’s energy sector.

“And that is more beneficial for the Canadian economy than the U.S.,” he says.

Would Canada follow the U.S. into a recession?

News of the U.S. recording two quarters in a row of negative growth was met with swift debate over whether the bar has been met for a technical recession, with most American officials downplaying such talk.

The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

1:07
Biden: U.S. ‘not in a recession’ according to Federal Reserve chairman, economists

Biden: U.S. ‘not in a recession’ according to Federal Reserve chairman, economists

If the U.S. ultimately does fall into a recession, Caranci says it will be hard for Canada to achieve its own “soft landing” because the same forces will be acting on the closely-tied economies.

Both countries are facing rampant inflation caused largely by global forces such as supply chain delays and the war in Ukraine, and are meeting these challenges with aggressive interest rate hikes.

Though Caranci notes there are “nuances” in how government policies are guiding their respective economies through a pending downturn, it would be hard to end up with a different result.

“You would have to come up with a logic on why an interest rate shock would impact Canadians less than the U.S. and an inflation shock would hit us less than the U.S. and I don’t think there’s a strong argument there,” she says.

RBC is forecasting mild recessions in both the U.S. and in Canada in the year to come. Freestone says the U.S. could fall into recession by the end of the year, with Canada’s contractions coming in the second or third quarter of 2023.

While she notes that Canada does not always follow the U.S. into recession — 2001 being a recent outlier in that regard — Freestone agrees with Caranci that Canada can’t necessarily escape the pressures stifling the U.S. economy.

“The forces that are playing out in the U.S. that would cause a recession to take place are also forces taking place in Canada and a lot of these forces are beyond our borders,” she says.

All of the economists who spoke to Global News said they expect the latest Canadian GDP report, which was slightly higher than the Bank of Canada’s forecast, won’t deter the central bank from raising interest rates at its next decision on Sept. 7. Each anticipates another outsized rate hike to take the bank’s policy rate to three per cent or higher.

Caranci says that even if Canada and the U.S. are on similar economic paths, the “depth” of any downturn might not be the same. She notes that the U.S. saw a historic leap in durable goods spending during its latest economic recovery, a trend Canada did not follow.

She argues that distinctions like this could put the U.S. at risk for a bigger correction than Canada.

“So just bear in mind that the trajectory may be the same, but the magnitude may differ.”

— with files from The Associated Press

Click to play video: 'The economy can handle further interest rate hikes, Bank of Canada governor says'

1:45
The economy can handle further interest rate hikes, Bank of Canada governor says

The economy can handle further interest rate hikes, Bank of Canada governor says – Jun 9, 2022

Adblock test (Why?)

Source link

News

Jacob Trouba says ‘there’s no animosity’ toward Rangers following trade rumors

Published

12 mins ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

GREENBURGH, N.Y. (AP) — New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba said Thursday “there’s no animosity” toward the organization following an offseason in which his name was prominently mentioned in trade rumors.

“It’s part of the business of hockey,” Trouba said following the first day of training camp for the reigning Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers.

According to reports, Rangers president and general manager Chris Drury had negotiated a trade that would send New York’s captain to Detroit in late June. The trade fell apart, however, when Trouba submitted his 15-team no-trade list to the Rangers on June 30 and included the Red Wings on it.

“Obviously, had the no-move that turned into the partial no-trade,” said Trouba, whom New York acquired in a trade with Winnipeg in June 2019 and signed to a seven-year, $56 million contract one month later. “That’s life, contracts, hockey business, whatever you want to call it.

“I knew that was coming that summer. It’s not by surprise. It was obviously something that was negotiated at the time.”

The 30-year-old’s insistence that his relationship with Drury is fine echoes what the executive said in a pre-training camp conference call with reporters.

“Jacob and I talk all the time as GM and captain should,” Drury said. “We’ve had a number of different conversations over the course of the summer on a lot of different things. He is very clear as to where he stands with me and what I think of him as a player and as a leader.”

Still, Trouba realizes that the 2024-25 season is likely the last for the current iteration of the Original Six franchise. The Rangers have qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the last three seasons, and have reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024. Following last spring’s six-game series loss to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, Drury wondered aloud in a conference call with reporters if the Rangers’ core players could lead the franchise to a Stanley Cup.

“(It’s) an opportunity that we have in front of us that in all likelihood will probably be the last crack for this core,” Trouba said. “I don’t think that’s a secret by any means. (A) group that’s kind of grown together, spent some years together here, and there’s something we want to accomplish.”

___

AP NHL:

Source link

News

Veterans Tyson Beukeboom, Karen Paquin lead Canada’s team at WXV rugby tournament

Published

15 mins ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

Veterans Tyson Beukeboom and Karen Paquin will lead Canada at the WXV 1 women’s rugby tournament starting later this month in the Vancouver area.

WXV 1 includes the top three teams from the Women’s Six Nations (England, France and Ireland) and the top three teams from the Pacific Four Series (Canada, New Zealand, and the United States).

Third-ranked Canada faces No. 4 France, No. 7 Ireland and No. 1 England in the elite division of the three-tiered WXV tournament that runs Sept. 29 to Oct. 12 in Vancouver and Langley, B.C. No. 2 New Zealand and the eighth-ranked U.S. make up the six-team WVX 1 field.

“Our preparation time was short but efficient. This will be a strong team,” Canada coach Kevin Rouet said in a statement. “All the players have worked very hard for the last couple of weeks to prepare for WXV and we are excited for these next three matches and for the chance to play on home soil here in Vancouver against the best rugby teams in the world.

“France, Ireland and England will each challenge us in different ways but it’s another opportunity to test ourselves and another step in our journey to the Rugby World Cup next year.”

Beukeboom serves as captain in the injury absence of Sophie de Goede. The 33-year-old from Uxbridge, Ont., earned her Canadian-record 68th international cap in Canada’s first-ever victory over New Zealand in May at the Pacific Four Series.

Twenty three of the 30 Canadian players selected for WXV 1 were part of that Pacific Four Series squad.

Rouet’s roster includes the uncapped Asia Hogan-Rochester, Caroline Crossley and Rori Wood.

Hogan-Rochester and Crossley were part of the Canadian team that won rugby sevens silver at the Paris Olympics, along with WXV teammates Fancy Bermudez, Olivia Apps, Alysha Corrigan and Taylor Perry. Wood is a veteran of five seasons at UBC.

The 37-year-old Paquin, who has 38 caps for Canada including the 2014 Rugby World Cup, returns to the team for the first time since the 2021 World Cup.

Canada opens the tournament Sept. 29 against France at B.C. Place Stadium in Vancouver before facing Ireland on Oct. 5 at Willoughby Stadium at Langley Events Centre, and England on Oct. 12 at B.C. Place.

The second-tier WXV 2 and third-tier WXV 3 are slated to run Sept. 27 to Oct. 12, in South Africa and Dubai, respectively.

WXV 2 features Australia, Italy, Japan, Scotland, South Africa and Wales while WXV 3 is made up of Fiji, Hong Kong, Madagascar, the Netherlands, Samoa and Spain.

The tournament has 2025 World Cup qualification implications, although Canada, New Zealand and France, like host England, had already qualified by reaching the semifinals of the last tournament.

Ireland, South Africa, the U.S., Japan, Fiji and Brazil have also booked their ticket, with the final six berths going to the highest-finishing WXV teams who have not yet qualified through regional tournaments.

Canada’s Women’s Rugby Team WXV 1 Squad

Forwards

Alexandria Ellis, Ottawa, Stade Français Paris (France); Brittany Kassil, Guelph, Ont., Guelph Goats; Caroline Crossley, Victoria, Castaway Wanderers; Courtney Holtkamp, Rimbey, Alta., Red Deer Titans Rugby; DaLeaka Menin, Vulcan, Alta., Exeter Chiefs (England); Emily Tuttosi, Souris, Man., Exeter Chiefs (England); Fabiola Forteza, Quebec City, Stade Bordelais (France); Gabrielle Senft, Regina, Saracens (England); Gillian Boag, Calgary, Gloucester-Hartpury (England); Julia Omokhuale, Calgary, Leicester Tigers (England); Karen Paquin, Quebec City, Club de rugby de Quebec; Laetitia Royer, Loretteville, Que., ASM Romagnat (France); McKinley Hunt, King City, Ont., Saracens (England); Pamphinette Buisa, Gatineau, Que., Ottawa Irish; Rori Wood, Sooke, B.C., College Rifles RFC; Sara Cline, Edmonton, Leprechaun Tigers; Tyson Beukeboom, Uxbridge, Ont., Ealing Trailfinders (England);

Backs

Alexandra Tessier, Sainte-Clotilde-de-Horton, Que., Exeter Chiefs (England); Alysha Corrigan, Charlottetown, P.E.I., CRFC; Asia Hogan-Rochester, Toronto, Toronto Nomads; Claire Gallagher, Caledon, Ont., Leicester Tigers (England); Fancy Bermudez, Edmonton, Saracens (England); Julia Schell, Uxbridge, Ont., Ealing Trailfinders (England); Justine Pelletier, Rivière-du-Loup, Que, Stade Bordelais (France); Mahalia Robinson, Fulford, Que., Town of Mount Royal RFC; Olivia Apps, Lindsay, Ont., Lindsay RFC; Paige Farries, Red Deer, Alta., Saracens (England); Sara Kaljuvee, Ajax, Ont., Westshore RFC; Shoshanah Seumanutafa, White Rock, B.C., Counties Manukau (New Zealand); Taylor Perry, Oakville, Ont., Exeter Chiefs (England).

—

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform, formerly known as Twitter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

Source link

News

Vancouver Canucks star goalie Thatcher Demko working through rare muscle injury

Published

15 mins ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

PENTICTON, B.C. – Vancouver Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko says he’s been working his way back from a rare lower-body muscle injury since being sidelined in last season’s playoffs.

The 28-year-old all star says the rehabilitation process has been frustrating, but he has made good progress in recent weeks and is confident he’ll be able to return to playing.

He says he and his medical team have spent the last few months talking to specialists around the world, and have not found a single other hockey player who has dealt with the same injury.

Demko missed several weeks of the last season with a knee ailment and played just one game in Vancouver’s playoff run last spring before going down with the current injury.

He was not on the ice with his teammates as the Canucks started training camp in Penticton, B.C., on Thursday, but skated on his own before the sessions began.

Demko posted a 35-14-2 record with a .918 percentage, a 2.45 goals-against average and five shutouts for Vancouver last season.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Source link