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Country Garden Is Latest Chinese Real Estate Giant in Trouble

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Country Garden, China’s last real estate giant to avoid default, has spooked investors after missing key debt payments, rekindling memories of China Evergrande.

Remember China Evergrande, that Chinese real estate behemoth whose mountain of debt sent global markets spiraling in 2021? Its collapse signaled the start of a crisis for China’s housing market, where sales of apartments ground to a halt and developers big and small found themselves unable to pay their bills.

Now, financial troubles at Country Garden, another real estate giant, are raising fresh concerns. It is also a flashing warning sign about China’s economy.

Country Garden, the country’s biggest developer by sales, has been pummeled in the markets twice in the past week. Investors are panicked by two events: On Aug. 1, the company scrapped a plan to inject cash into the business, something it needs. This week, it missed two interest payments on bonds. The bond payments, which are owed in U.S. dollars, are relatively small in value, but by missing them, the company put itself at risk of default.

Country Garden’s market value has more than halved since the start of the year. Some of its bonds were being swapped by traders for as little as 10 cents on the dollar this week, a sign of doubt that they expected to be paid back in full.

Investors are alarmed because Country Garden had largely benefited from measures to bolster the real estate market last year that included more financial support. For some time, it was designated as a model developer by Chinese authorities. This made lending to the company more palatable, when many other Chinese developers were in trouble.

But recent events have led Country Garden to a point of distress that was unthinkable a year ago, when it was making nearly $50 billion in sales. The worry now is that even as Beijing has pledged more support to the real estate market, the measures may not be enough.

Much of the squeeze on Country Garden’s financial position has come from a drop in sales of its apartments. Fewer people in China are interested in buying homes. The company issued a profit warning in July, saying that it would lose money in the first half of this year in part because of a “downward trend of real estate sales.”

Country Garden is facing a cash crisis at a time when the real estate sector is in the dumps and China’s leaders are trying to rev it up. There had been some optimism in July when top government decision makers pledged policies to help. Much of the initiative is in the country’s biggest cities, like Shenzhen and Shanghai, and the measures are unlikely to benefit Country Garden, which operates more in small cities.

The two bond payments that Country Garden missed this week do not amount to a lot of money for the company, which also has a 30-day grace period. But a default could scare those who have lent it money in the past. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

As Sandra Chow, co-head of Asia-Pacific Research at CreditSights, put it: “The developer’s struggle to address even a modest coupon payment underscores the extent of its cash crunch.”

More broadly, Country Garden’s potential default is another ominous sign for China’s economic outlook as its leaders look to reboot the economy after three years of stringent Covid prevention measures that suppressed activity. Home sales were down in the first half of the year, a decline that accelerated last month. One in five young Chinese is out of work. People are not spending money, leading companies to slash prices. In smaller cities, where Country Garden continues to build its sprawling residential complexes, authorities are facing an oversupply of housing and a steady decline of population.

Nervous investors will make Country Garden’s financial pressures more pronounced. The company has fared worse than the broader market and developers that concentrate in bigger cities, where the real estate slowdown has not been as acute. Country Garden’s sales under contract plunged nearly a third over the first six months of the year.

Even if Country Garden manages to make the interest payments on these bonds in the coming weeks, it is still not out of the woods. It has bond payments due every month for the rest of the year, according to Moody’s, and some $2.4 billion of bonds owed to investors in China and $2 billion of bonds owed to foreign investors by the end of 2024.

The prognosis is not great. Investors fear contagion from Country Garden’s deepening troubles. Shellshocked creditors who have continued to lend to developers might think twice before giving them more money. Home buyers may stay away from a company on the precipice of collapse. They’ve seen this movie before.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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