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COVID-19 infects Metro Vancouver real estate market – Vancouver Is Awesome

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As COVID-19 makes its way around the globe, it is also bulldozing its way though the economy, slowly infecting various industries. 

While airlines and event venues were the first to be poisoned, many are anxious about how the virus will affect other parts of the economy, including the real estate market – which made up 17.4% of B.C.’s GDP in 2018.

Earlier this month, Metro Vancouver real estate brokers cancelled all open houses. When houses aren’t shown they become more difficult to sell, and when houses aren’t selling the broader market suffers. 

While the outlook doesn’t look good, it is still too soon to know what impact COVID-19 will have on real estate. 

“We’re in early days still, and we’ll see how this all evolves,” said Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist at the BC Real EstateAssociation (BCREA). “It’s pretty clear that the next few months are going to be pretty rough.”

Before COVID-19 struck home, March was expected to be a strong month, according to Ogmundson, but that could change.

In its most recent analysis, the BCREA predicts a steep decline in home sales in the second quarter, followed by a slow recovery. Sales are not expected to reach pre-COVID 19 baseline expectations by the end of 2020. Housing prices, on the other hand, will likely experience only a modest temporary decline and should recover to baseline over the next year.  

The main reason home prices are expected to remain steady despite COVID-19 is that there isn’t a large enough supply for people to take advantage of low prices. 

“It works both ways. If people aren’t out there buying right now, they’re probably not listing either,” said Ogmundson. 

What usually drives real estate price down is a drop in sales activity coupled with a large increase in inventory, he said. People aren’t likely to be trying to get out of the real estate market at this time, so there is unlikely to be an increase in inventory. Even if demand falls off more than expected, it will take some time for that to be evident in real estate prices.

A slowdown in sales could also lead to pent up housing demand, Ogmundson said. This means that once fears surrounding COVID-19 have settled down, the housing market could come roaring back with a surge in sales and ultimately a spike in prices. 

While COVID-19 may not have a significant effect on housing prices, it is already making waves through the mortgage industry. 

The fear isn’t that lenders are going to stop lending, but that essential functions required to support lending will be damaged by the pandemic, said Taylor Little, CEO of Neighbourhood Holdings.

Not only are people avoiding open houses but appraisers are also staying home. Without needed appraisals, deals can’t be closed, and companies like Neighbourhood Holdings are put in a sort of realestate limbo, Little said. Delaying the closing of these real estatedeals will add to the economic stress already broadly being felt.

“How do you even complete a home refinance or purchase if an appraiser won’t even come into your house?” Little said.

The mortgage industry, including big banks and credit unions such as Vancity, are also suspending the need for borrowers to make mortgage payments. While at first glance this may appear as a negative for lenders, Little said it is beneficial. During difficult economic times, lenders are generally concerned about high debt delinquency; the deferral of mortgage payments will help prevent that. 

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada has slashed interest rates to 0.75%. Usually, lower interest rates would help spur housing sales, but with everything else going on, Little said, it’s unknown whether demand will rise. 

While lower interest rates might not be enough of an incentive to persuade people to buy a home during the pandemic, it could prove to be critically important for mortgages holders. 

“If you’re a candidate to refinance your mortgage today, there’s no doubt [lower interest rates] are going to stimulate activity there,” Little said.

People looking to blend or extend mortgages will benefit from lower interest rates, and people who are looking to close real estatedeals will also get a better rate.•

Pandemic response

•Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates to 0.75%

•Big banks and credit unions have deferred mortgage payments

•Metro Vancouver real estate brokers have postponed open houses

•Feds have raised Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. limits by $150 billion each to guarantee securities and 
ensure mortgages

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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