As provinces lift COVID-19 public health measures, some experts are warning that Canada may experience another wave of infections this spring, with wastewater data in many regions showing an uptick in cases due in part to the Omicron subvariant BA.2.
Officials in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and B.C. say wastewater analysis suggests COVID-19 infections are beginning to climb again. However, experts say it’s not yet clear whether Canada’s next wave will be a surge or a ripple.
Infectious disease expert Dr. Isaac Bogoch told CTV’s Your Morning on Thursday that current modelling data suggests parts of Canada may experience a “bump” in cases this spring.
“It could be a wave, it could be a smaller wave… It’s not entirely clear what’s on deck, but we’ll probably have a rise in cases and we know that whenever there’s a rise in cases, there’s usually this corresponding rise, sadly, in hospitalizations and deaths,” Bogoch said.
Public health officials tracking prevalence of COVID-19 through municipal wastewater testing in Ontario say they’re seeing a “sustained increase” in the viral signal in a variety of locations.
The increase comes after the province rolled back mask mandates and other restrictions including capacity limits for many indoor spaces and vaccine passports. Other provinces that have also recently eased restrictions, such as Alberta and B.C., are also seeing an uptick in viral load through wastewater data.
Experts say this rise is expected with the easing of public health measures, but note the simultaneous emergence of the Omicron subvariant BA.2 that’s now spreading across regions in Asia and Europe is complicating matters.
While most agree that Canada’s immunization rates should blunt the impacts of the so-called “stealth” subvariant, some worry that decreased public health vigilance could clear a path for BA.2 to drive up infections and hospitalizations.
In Quebec, officials say the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron now accounts for half of new infections in the province, while Alberta Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said Wednesday BA.2 is now the dominant strain of Omicron in her province.
VARIANTS AND VACCINATION
Canada’s chief public health officer suggested last week that the country may be protected from the worst of the COVID-19 resurgence, instead predicting a spring “blip” as public health measures are lifted.
While evidence suggests that BA.2 is more transmissible than its Omicron predecessor, the subvariant is spreading at a relatively slow rate in Canada so far, said Dr. Theresa Tam.
It doesn’t appear to cause more severe illness than other variants, she said, but international data suggests BA.2 targets people who aren’t protected by vaccination or previous exposure to the Omicron variant.
That means Canada’s high immunization uptake should keep hospitalizations at manageable levels even if cases rise, said Tam.
However, experts say the uptake of third vaccine doses, which has shown to be crucial in in protecting against severe outcomes from Omicron infection, is lagging behind first and second doses.
Dr. Brian Conway, an infectious disease expert and medical director of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre, previously told CTVNews.ca that vaccination plays a major role in preventing the surfacing of new variants.
Conway said the fewer people that are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, the greater the potential for a new variant to not only emerge, but to spread.
“Variants are dependent on the virus replicating in real life, so the more susceptible hosts you have, the more virus you will have,” he said. “Since it replicates so much, just by randomness, it will develop some new variants that will survive.”
Bogoch said BA.2 will likely not be the last variant of COVID-19 and others will “most certainly” continue to emerge. However, he said it will be more difficult for the next variant to get a foothold in Canada because most people have immunity after being infected with Omicron, or they have been vaccinated, or a combination of both.
The “goal” is to build up that community level protection, so the next variant or wave “doesn’t impact us as significantly as it has in the past,” he explained.
Despite this, experts say it’s important to note that vaccination is only somewhat efficient at protecting against infection, particularly when caused by the Omicron variant.
A recent study conducted in England found the efficacy of two Pfizer vaccine doses against symptomatic disease brought about by Omicron was 65.5 per cent after two to four weeks, before falling to 8.8 per cent 25 or more weeks after vaccination. With a booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine, protection increased to 67.2 per cent after two to four weeks, but also began to wane as more time went on.
Experts say this is concerning for those who are most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 outcomes, such as people who are older or immunocompromised. These groups were prioritized for early boosters in many parts of the country, thus the immunity provided by these doses are more likely to have waned in the months since. This has spurred talks of a potential fourth dose for some.
Because of this, experts say public health measures also play a critical role in protecting against infection, and some restrictions could be re-imposed in certain provinces if hospitalization rates and deaths start to surge in the coming weeks.
But Bogoch said this may be difficult given peoples’ attitudes following two years of pandemic restrictions. He suggests Canadians continue to follow those measures that make themselves feel safe, such as wearing a mask and limiting social circles, despite these restrictions no longer being mandated.
“I think when we look at… the general mood, I think many people are done with COVID, but of course we know that COVID’s still here, it’s still around,” Bogoch said. “We also know now how to keep it in check.”
Just because Canada is expected to see a rise in Omicron subvariant cases similar to parts of Asia and Europe, Bogoch said this doesn’t necessarily mean Canadian hospitals will be overwhelmed again.
“I think we have the tools to keep this in check. Put on your mask, get vaccinated, we can get through this,” he said.
With files from The Canadian Press and CTVNews.ca writer Jennifer Ferreira
TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.
Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.
Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.
Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.
Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.
“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”
The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.
Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.
“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.
Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.
The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.
Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.
But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.
Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.
“It’s literally incredible.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.
The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.
It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.
CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.
The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.
Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
LAVAL, Que. – The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven says it has received a new management buyout proposal from a member of the family that helped found the company, offering an alternative to the takeover bid from Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.
The proposal for Seven & i Holdings Co. Ltd. is being made by Junro Ito, who is a vice-president and director of the company, and Ito-Kogyo Co. Ltd., a private company affiliated with him.
Terms of the non-binding offer by Ito were not disclosed.
In a statement Wednesday, Seven & i said its special committee has been reviewing the proposal with its financial advisers.
Stephen Hayes Dacus, chair of the special committee and board of directors of the company, said the company is committed to an objective review of all alternatives as it considers the proposals from Ito and Couche-Tard as well as the company’s stand-alone opportunities.
“The special committee and the company board will continue to engage with all parties in a manner designed to maximize value and will continue to act in the best interests of the company’s shareholders and other stakeholders,” he said in a statement.
The company noted that Ito has been excluded from all discussions within the company related to the offer and the bid by Couche-Tard.
Quebec-based Couche-Tard made a revised offer for Seven & i last month after an earlier proposal was rebuffed by the Japanese firm because it was too low and did not fully address U.S. regulatory concerns.
It did not respond to a request for comment about Ito’s offer.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Irene Nattel said the latest development underscored her belief that a Couche-Tard deal with Seven & i is a “low probability event.”
“Assuming attractive pricing and a fully-funded transaction, the potential privatization from a friendly Japanese group would seemingly provide investors with the value creation event they seek,” said Nattel, adding that it would skirt potential competition issues in the U.S. and concerns around the foreign takeover of a core local entity for Japanese regulators.
Couche-Tard has argued its proposal offers clear strategic and financial benefits and has said it believes the two companies can reach a mutually agreeable transaction.
However, the Japanese company has said there are multiple and significant challenges such a transaction would face from U.S. competition regulators.
Couche-Tard operates across 31 countries, with more than 16,800 stores. A successful deal with Seven & i could add 85,800 stores to its network.
Seven & i owns not only the 7-Eleven chain, but also supermarkets, food producers, household goods retailers and financial services companies.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
